Module 1 Introduction to Mitigation Under the UNFCCC

1. Module 1Introduction to Mitigation Under the UNFCCC • The science of climate change • Definition and scope of mitigation • Contributions of IPCC Working Group 3 (WG3) on mitigation in the Third Assessment Report (TAR). • The UNFCCC Guidelines on mitigation assessment. • The potential benefits of mitigation • Interactions between mitigation and development • Integrating mitigation and adaptation

2. Module 1a The Science of Climate Change

3. Our Atmosphere is Changing • During the last century, the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases and their radiative forcing have continued to rise as a result of human activities. • Global average surface temperatures have increased by about 0.6 °C. • Global average sea level has risen and ocean heat content has increased. • “The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on global climate” (IPCC, SAR, 1995) • “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities” (IPCC, TAR, 2001) • CO2 Concentrations and Global Average Temperatures Will Continue to Rise • Pre-industrial level: 280 ppm • Current level: 360 ppm • A1FI level in 2100: ~1100 ppm • B1 level in 2100: ~550 ppm Source: IPCC, 2001

4. Some Expected Impacts • Sea level projected to rise 0.09 to 0.88m by 2100 with significant regional variations. • Extreme weather events are projected to increase. • More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and socioeconomic systems. • Increased water availability in some water-scarce regions, but decreased water availability in many water scarce regions. • Initially increased agricultural productivity in some mid-latitude regions, but decreased in the tropics and sub-tropics. • Significant disruptions of ecosystems from fire, drought, pest infestation, species invasion, etc. • Changes in productivity and composition of ecological systems, with coral reefs and boreal forests being most vulnerable. • Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of people. • Increased incidence of heat stress mortality, and vector-borne diseases (but reduced winter mortality in mid- and high-latitudes). • Some impacts effectively irreversible over many generations (Thermohaline circulation, Ice sheets, Migration of plant species).

5. Developing Countries are the Most Vulnerable to Climate Change • Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors. • Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge • Impacts disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest people, exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.

6. Adaptation • Has the potential to reduce adverse effects of climate change and can produce ancillary benefits, but cannot prevent all damages. • Numerous adaptation options have been identified that can reduce adverse and enhance beneficial impacts of climate change. • Greater and more rapid climate change would pose greater challenges for adaptation. • Lower levels of future GHG concentrations will make the adaptation challenge easier.

7. Stabilization of atmospheric CO2 will require significant emissions reductions Source: IPCC

8. Energy Sector CO2 Emissions in 2000 Source: IEA

9. Industrialized countries have emitted the most anthropogenic CO2(Area proportional to historical CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, 1900-1999) Source: WRI

10. In the future, the share of global GHG emissions from NA1 parties will increase 2035 total emission estimate: 11.71 billion tons of carbon 1995 total emissions: 6.46 billion tons of carbon Source: OSTP

11. Module 1b Definition and Scope of Mitigation Assessment

12. Definitions • Mitigation is defined as any anthropogenic interventions that can either reduce the sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (abatement) or enhance their sinks (sequestration). • In the context of the UNFCCC, a mitigation assessment is a national-level analysis of the various technologies and practices that have the capacity to mitigate climate change.

13. Buildings 45+++ years Hydro75+ yrs Nuclear 30 – 60 years Gas turbines 25+ years Time-Frame • Need to examine long-run opportunities for reducing carbon sources or enhancing sinks, bearing in mind the life-times of various appliances and systems. • Rate of technological change is closely related to the lifetime of capital stock. Coal power 45+ yrs Motor vehicles 12 – 20 years

14. Scope • Includes energy demand and supply, forestry, agriculture, rangelands and waste management. • Includes analysis of the impact of options on the macro-economy. • Considers policies and programs that can encourage adoption of mitigation technologies and practices

15. Module 1c The contributions of Working Group 3 (WG3) on mitigation in the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR)

16. Background on WG 3: Mitigation • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has three working groups: • WG I to assess the Science of climate change • WG II to assess Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability • WG III to assess Mitigation of climate change • WGIII was charged by the IPCC Plenary for the Panel’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) to assess the scientific, technical, environmental, economic, and social aspects of the mitigation of climate change.

17. Major Topics Covered in WGIII Report on Mitigation • Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios • Technological and Economic Potential of Mitigation Options • Technological and Economic Potential of Sinks • Barriers, Opportunities, and Market Potential • Policies, Measures, and Instruments • Costing Methodologies • Global, Regional and National Costs and Ancillary Benefits • Sectoral Costs and Ancillary Benefits of Mitigation • Decision Analytic Frameworks • Gaps in Knowledge

18. Chapter 2: Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Scenarios and Implications • This chapter reviews three scenario literatures: general mitigation scenarios produced since the SAR, narrative-based scenarios found in the general futures literature, and mitigation scenarios based on the new “SRES” scenarios. • In addition, it provides recommendations for future research, including the need for more explicit analysis of policy instruments leading to mitigation, inclusion of other GHGs than CO2, and capacity building for scenario analyses in developing countries.

19. Chapter 2: GHG Emissions Scenarios • Scenarios represent plausible future worlds with particular economic, social and environmental characteristics • Mitigation scenarios are usually defined as a description and a quantified projection of how GHG emissions can be reduced with respect to some baseline scenario. • Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES): Four scenario families. Each family has a unifying theme in the form of a “storyline” or narrative that describes future demographic, social, economic, technological, and policy trends

20. Qualitative Directions for SRES Scenarios

21. Chapter 3: Technological and Economic Potential GHG Emissions Reductions • Describes technologies and practices to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the end-use sectors of the economy as well as through changes in energy supply. • Concludes that while there is significant potential for GHG emissions reductions in every sector considered, appropriate policies is required to realize the potential.

22. Chapter 4: Options to Enhance, Maintain, and Manage Carbon Sinks • Assesses biological and geo-engineering mitigation measures to capture carbon in terrestrial ecosystems, focusing on the physical mitigation potential, ecological and environmental constraints, economics, and social considerations. • Concludes that by 2010 mitigation in LULUCF activities can lead to significant mitigation of CO2 emissions while complementing other land management objectives. Geo-engineering is not ready for near-term application.

23. Chapter 5: Barriers, Opportunities, and Market Potential of Technologies and Practices • Discusses the barriers that slow the transfer and penetration of technologies and practices that have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. • Also discusses theories and models to understand technological and social innovation and its drivers and implications. • Topic addressed in Module 4.

24. Chapter 6: Policies, Measures, and Instruments • Examines the major types of policies and measures that can be used to mitigate net GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. • In addition to economic dimensions, political, economic, legal, and institutional elements are considered insofar as they are relevant to the discussion of policies and measures.

25. Chapter 7: Costing Methodologies • Addresses methodological issues that arise in the estimation of the monetary costs of climate change. • The focus is on the correct assessment of the costs of mitigation measures to reduce the emissions of GHGs. • Includes discussion of technologically rich bottom-up models and more aggregate top-down models, which link the energy sector to the rest of the economy. • Concludes with recommendations for further research while contending that much progress has been made since the SAR.

26. Chapter 8: Global, Regional, and National Costs and Ancillary Benefits of Mitigation • Examines the literature on the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation policies at the national, regional, and global levels. • Net welfare gains or losses are reported, including (when available) the ancillary benefits of mitigation policies. • These studies employ the full range of analytical tools described in Chapter 7. • Concludes that the cost estimates of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations depend upon the concentration stabilization target, the emissions pathway to stabilization and the baseline scenario assumed.

27. Chapter 9: Sector Costs and Ancillary Benefits of Mitigation • Reviews the research on the cost implications and ancillary benefits of mitigation strategies across sectors, including: • Top-down studies that capture general effects on the economy and tend to consider price-driven policies such as carbon taxes rather than technology policies. • Bottom-up studies that examine technology-driven options; and financial cost-benefit analyses of individual mitigation measures.

28. Chapter 10: Decision-making Frameworks • Provides a critical appraisal of policy-oriented analyses and summarizes the emerging insights in a form that allows policymakers to make informed judgments. • Considers the special features of climate change in the context of how they affect decision-making in different frameworks. • Suggests that mitigation, adaptation, and learning activities should be carefully crafted over time but that mitigation action at any level should start in the near term.

29. Main WGIII Conclusions:Nature of the Mitigation Challenge • Climate change is a problem with unique characteristics • Global, long-term, involves complex interactions between climatic, environmental, economic, political, institutional, social, and technological processes • Alternative development paths can result in very different GHG emissions (e.g., SRES) • Climate change mitigation will both be affected by, and have impacts on, broader socio-economic policies and trends • Differences in distribution of resources are key considerations (i.e., equity concerns) • Lower emissions scenarios require different patterns of energy resource development

30. Module 1d The UNFCCC Guidelines on Mitigation Assessment

31. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) • Came into force in 1994; signed by over 150 countries. • Overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to tackle climate change.  • Recognizes that climate is affected by anthropogenic emissions of GHGs. • Seeks “stabilization of GHG concentrations…at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” (Article 2) • Parties • expected to “take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects” (Article 3). • have “common but differentiated responsibilities” based on their national circumstances. • gather and share information on GHG emissions, national policies and best practices. • launch national strategies for addressing greenhouse emissions and adapting to expected impacts, including the provision of financial and technological support to developing countries.  • cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change. • The Conference of Parties (COP) is the highest decision-making authority of the Convention.

32. UNFCCC Parties • Annex I: members of OECD in 1992 + economies in transition (EIT). • Annex II: OECD members of Annex I. Required to provide financial resources to enable developing countries to undertake emissions reduction activities and to help them adapt to adverse effects of climate change. Must also "take all practicable steps" to promote development & transfer of environmentally friendly technologies to EITs and developing countries. • Non-Annex I (NA1) are mostly developing countries. • Certain countries recognized as being especially vulnerable to climate change, including countries with low-lying coastal areas and those prone to desertification and drought. Others are more vulnerable to the potential economic impacts of climate change responses (e.g. fossil fuel exporting nations). • The 48 least developed countries (LDCs), are given special consideration under the Convention on account of their limited capacity to respond to climate change and adapt to its adverse effects.

33. Status of National Communications • National communications have become an important tool for bringing climate change concerns to the attention of policy makers at the national level. • In 2002, COP8 in India adopted a set of new and improved guidelines for national communications (17/CP.8). • By July 2005, initial national communications had been presented to the COP by 125 NA1 parties, and second national communications had been presented by 3 NA1 parties. • In the next phase of the Convention in which the focus is increasingly on implementation, national communications will become an important strategic tool to help countries align their interests and priorities to the overall goals of the Convention.

34. Reporting Commitments • Article 4, p.1, and Article 12, p.1, of the convention provide for each Party to report to the COP: • information on its emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol (greenhouse gas inventories); • national or, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate, and to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change (general description of steps taken or envisaged by the Party to implement the Convention); • any other information that the Party considers relevant to the achievement of the objective of the Convention.

35. Guidelines for National Communications Preparation for non-Annex I Parties • Adopted in 2002, at COP8. Principal objectives: • to assist NA1 Parties in meeting their reporting requirements; • to encourage the presentation of information in a consistent, transparent, comparable and flexible manner; • to facilitate the presentation of information on support required for the preparation of national communications; • to serve as policy guidance to the operating entity of the financial mechanism of the Convention, for the timely provision of financial support needed by NA1 Parties in order to fulfill their reporting requirement; • to ensure that the COP has sufficient information to carry out its responsibility for assessing the implementation of the Convention by Parties.

36. Information to be Includedin NA1 Party National Communications • National inventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removal by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol • A general description of steps taken or envisaged by the Party to implement the Convention • Any other information that the Party considers relevant to the achievement of the objective of the Convention and suitable for inclusion in its communication, including, if feasible, materials relevant for calculations of global emission trends.

37. National Circumstances for NA1 Parties • NA1 parties should provide a description of national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances, on the basis of which they will address climate change and its adverse impacts. • This may include information on geography, climate and economy which may affect their ability to deal with mitigating and adapting to climate change, as well as information regarding specific needs and concerns arising from the adverse effects of climate change and/or the impact of the implementation of response measures. • NA1 parties are encouraged to provide a summary of relevant information regarding their national circumstances, as appropriate, in tabular form. • NA1 parties may provide a description of existing institutional arrangements relevant to the preparation of their national communications on a continuous basis.

38. Mitigation Guidelines (1) • Each NA1 Party shall … communicate to the COP a general description of steps taken or envisaged by the Party to implement the Convention, taking into account its common but differentiated responsibilities and its specific national and regional development priorities, objectives and circumstances. (25) • NA1 Parties may provide information on programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change by addressing anthropogenic emission by sources and removals by sinks of all GHGs not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, and measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change, following the provisions in these guidelines. (26)

39. Mitigation Guidelines (2) • The extent to which developing country Parties will effectively implement their commitment to communicate this information will depend on the effective implementation by developed country Parties of their commitments under the Convention relating to financial resources and transfer of technology. (27) • Each Party shall provide to the COP information on … steps taken or envisaged for formulating, implementing, publishing and regularly updating national and, where appropriate, regional programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change … and any other information they consider to be relevant…. (37)

40. Methodological Approaches for Mitigation • Based on national circumstances, NA1 Parties are encouraged to use whatever methods are available and appropriate in order to formulate and prioritize programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change; this should be done within the framework of sustainable development objectives, which should include social, economic and environmental factors. (38) • In their assessment of these programmes on various sectors of the economy, NA1 Parties may use the appropriate technical resources. (39) • Such as Technologies, Policies and Measures for Mitigating Climate Change (IPCC Technical Paper I); GHG Mitigation Assessment: A Guidebook by the US Country Studies Program; Climate Change 2001: Mitigation (Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC).

41. Reporting • Based on national circumstances, NA1 Parties are encouraged to provide, to the extent their capacities allow, information on programmes and measures implemented or planned which contribute to mitigating climate change by addressing anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all GHGs not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, including, as appropriate, relevant information by key sectors on methodologies, scenarios, results, measures and institutional arrangements.

42. Module 1e Potential Benefits of Mitigation Activities

43. The Benefits of GHG Mitigation • Primary: GHG emissions abatement: reducing global climate change. • Co-benefits: non-climate benefits of GHG mitigation policies that are explicitly incorporated into the initial creation of mitigation policies. • Ancillary benefits: secondary or side effects of climate change mitigation policies that arise subsequent to any proposed GHG policies. • E.g. reductions in local and regional air pollution, associated with the reduction of fossil fuels, and indirect effects on issues such as transportation, agriculture, land use practices, biodiversity preservation, employment, income and fuel security.

44. Mitigation Could Provide Local Benefits… • Local environmental protection. • Poverty alleviation • Reduce fossil fuel consumption • Improve technological base. • Increase in technological efficiency and effectiveness, • Improvements in the security and availability of power supply. • Reduction in road congestion with a shift from private to public transport. • Increase in employment resulting from mitigation projects. • Strengthening of institutional, systemic and human capacity.

45. Potential Levels and Scope • Global, regional and country level. • Short, medium and long term. • Scope of the approach: general (aggregated) benefit and sector benefit • Identification of key benefit by sectors: energy and non energy.

46. Some Key Challenges • Identification, estimation and valuation of mitigation benefits. • Relation between mitigation and sustainable development

47. Module 1f Interactions between mitigation and development

48. Development will be Undermined by Climate Change • The Challenge: • Poverty: 1.3 billion people live on less than $1 per day and 3 billion people on less than $2 per day. Top 20% income group uses 86% of resources, while bottom 20% uses under 1.3% • Food: 800 million people malnourished today -- food production needs to double in the next 35 years • Water: 1.3 billion people without clean water; 2 billion without sanitation • Energy: 2 billion people without electricity • Environment: 1.4 billion people exposed to dangerous levels of outdoor pollution and even larger number exposed to dangerous levels of indoor air pollution and vector-borne diseases • Shelter: many live in areas susceptible to civil strife, environmental degradation, and natural disasters

49. Developing Countries are the Most Vulnerable to Climate Change • Impacts disproportionately on the poorest countriesand people, who have contributed least to GHG emissions: exacerbates inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources. • Net effects negative in most developing countries, but mixed for developed countries for warming up to a few ºC. • A warming of greater than a few ºC is likely to result in net effects becoming negative for most countries

50. ClimateChange Development Former Viewpoint ` Integrated CC-SD Strategy Climate Change Development An integrated climate change-sustainable development strategy is essential Emerging Viewpoint Source: Adapted from Munasinghe, 2005