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Climate Mitigation at UNFCCC: Bridging Gaps and Future Commitments

This document discusses the gap in mitigation efforts vs. commitments, AOSIS & LDCs ambitions, current pledges by Kyoto Protocol parties, uncertainties, and the importance of BRICs. It also outlines future commitments, challenges, and key players in global climate action discussions.

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Climate Mitigation at UNFCCC: Bridging Gaps and Future Commitments

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  1. Climate mitigation at the UNFCCC Georgina Woods, Climate Action Network Australia g.woods@cana.net.au Sept. 2009 Emissions data taken from WRI, or from party submission to UNFCCC

  2. Background: where are we? • Huge gap between necessary mitigation and current commitments and pledges • Ambitions of AOSIS and LDCs: 350ppm 1.5° 45% A1 aggregate. • Combined pledges of A1 (excl. US): between 15 and 21% below 1990 levels by 2020 • Bali range (25-40%) gives 50% chance of avoiding runaway climate change.

  3. Future commitments: Kyoto • Kyoto Protocol requires parties to adopt QELRCs for five year periods (first CP 2008-2012) • Does this by setting an Assigned Amount (total emissions for that period) • Total KP A1 target for CP1 is 5% below 1990.

  4. A1 pledges During KP first CP (to 2012) On the table for 2020 UK 66% of 1990 EU 70-80% of 1990 Norway 70% of 1990 Canada 97% of 1990 Japan 75% of 1990 Aust.76-96% of 1990 UK 92% of 1990 EU 92% of 1990 Norway 101% of 1990 Canada 94% of 1990 Japan 94% of 1990 Aust. 108% of 1990 But what about the USA?

  5. Future commitments: Long-term Cooperative action • Shared Vision • Annex 1 aggregate target • Peak years • Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions • International bunkers • Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries • Sectoral approaches

  6. Uncertainties • Length of commitment • Review after IPCC fifth assessment report in 2014? • Base years • What about countries that haven’t met their 1st Kyoto commitments (eg. NZ)? • Bunkers: 2.4% of world total, but rising fast. • Aviation emissions >500Mt pa

  7. Complications • Double counting: NAMAs as offsets? • Finance and technology transfer • Offsets: changes to LULUCF rules? • Hot air: Russia, Ukraine and Belarus emissions significantly below CP1 targets. • Russian pledge is to go from their current position of 33-34% below 1990 levels now, to being 10-15% below in 2020. • What to do about the BRICs?

  8. BRICs • Stands for Brazil, Russia, India and China • Without LULUCF: around 29% of global emissions • Emissions growing fast: China doubled emissions between 1990 and 2005 • Low per capita emissions, need sustainable development.

  9. Who will be important? • Two thirds of the greenhouse gases emitted between 2000 and 2005 were produced by just five UNFCCC parties: the US (more than one fifth), China, the EU, Russia and Japan. • India strongly resisting commitments. • Australia chairs the Umbrella group. • G77, African group, AOSIS, EU

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