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Space-time trends in temperature extremes in south central Sweden

Space-time trends in temperature extremes in south central Sweden. Peter Guttorp, UW/NRC Peter F. Craigmile , OSU. Projections from IPCC AR4. Can be used to look for signals in data Fewer frost days (very likely everywhere)

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Space-time trends in temperature extremes in south central Sweden

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  1. Space-time trends in temperature extremes in south central Sweden Peter Guttorp, UW/NRC Peter F. Craigmile, OSU

  2. Projections from IPCC AR4 • Can be used to look for signals in data • Fewer frost days (very likely everywhere) • Less intense cold extremes (very likely Northern Europe, South Asia, East Asia) • Reduced diurnal temperature range (likely on most continents)

  3. Data network • Synoptic stations in south central Sweden with 48 years of data Jönköping

  4. GEV distribution

  5. ML fits with linear trend

  6. Prediction of Jönköping (44 yrs) • Spatial fit of GEV parameters vsmle fit

  7. Spatial model • where • Allows borrowing estimation strength from other sites • Can include more sites in analysis

  8. Bayesian fit Posterior probability of slope ≤ 0 is very small everywhere

  9. No real model for joint distribution at several sites. Here prediction at single site: mle Bayes

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