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TYNDP 2018 : process , scenarios and European needs identified

TYNDP 2018 : process , scenarios and European needs identified. [PCI 2019] Meeting of TEN-E cross - electricity Regional Group. Dimitrios Chaniotis ENTSO-E. TYNDP 2018 Package : content and development steps. TYNDP 2018 Scenarios. CBA. 1. 2. 3. System needs. 4.

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TYNDP 2018 : process , scenarios and European needs identified

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  1. TYNDP 2018 : process, scenarios and European needs identified [PCI 2019] Meeting of TEN-E cross - electricity Regional Group Dimitrios Chaniotis ENTSO-E

  2. TYNDP 2018 Package : content and development steps TYNDP 2018 Scenarios CBA • 1 • 2 • 3 System needs 4

  3. TYNDP 2018 Package : content and development steps TYNDP 2018 Scenarios CBA • 1 • 2 • 3 System needs 4

  4. Assessments addressed in different time-frames • TYNDP • RSCs‘ • Week ahead • Seasonal • MAF Long term Mid term Short term 10 years >10 years 5 years 1 year 6 months 1 week REAL TIME Operational decisions • Investment decisions • Policy decisions UNCERTAINTY INCREASES

  5. The TYNDP process

  6. TYNDP 2018: DELIVERABLES Approved by the European Commission Page 6

  7. TYNDP 2018 Package : content and development steps TYNDP 2018 Scenarios CBA • 1 • 2 • 3 System needs 4

  8. Scenario framework • Previous TYNDP scenarios followed differing approaches…

  9. Scenario framework • Stakeholder input helped define the framework as a combination of approaches, leading to the best of both worlds

  10. Scenario framework

  11. Scenario Building • Data Collection • Validation • Optimisation • Electricity Market Studies • Results

  12. Global Climate Action Global emissions trading scheme Large scale development of renewable resources. Low Carbon technologies. High economic growth & Energy Efficiency Electric and gas vehicles displace oil in the private transport sector Gas helps the decarbonisation of the shipping and heavy good transport sectors Power-to-gas commercially available. Bio-methane Electric and hybrid heat pump technology help to decarbonise heating P2G

  13. Sustainable Transition National focus on climate change, driven by ETS and national subsidies Steady growth of renewable resources Moderate economic growth Gas sees significant growth in the shipping and transport sectors Electrification of heating and transport sees stable development Strong development in Bio-methane but none in Power-to-gas Heat pump technology most common in new buildings

  14. Distributed Generation ‘Prosumer’ lead climate action, helped by strong EU Policies and an efficient ETS. Storage drives climate action Decentralised growth of renewable resources High economic growth Smart cities enabled with electricity storage and demand response Decarbonisation of transport driven by electric vehicles Hybrid heat pumps offer consumer choice and flexibility P2G

  15. Key indicators • Transport • Heating • Power • Renewable Gases

  16. European Commission EUCO 30 • EUCO30 is a core policy scenario produced by the European Commission • The scenario models the achievement of the 2030 climate and energy targets as agreed by the European Council in 2014, but including an energy efficiency target of 30% • The ENTSOs both welcome this new collaboration with the European Commission and further cooperation

  17. TYNDP 2018 Package : content and development steps TYNDP 2018 Scenarios CBA • 1 • 2 • 3 System needs 4

  18. 4 main studies 2040 optimal grid analysis • 2030 market boundaries reinforcement NEW No action 2030 2040 All projects 2030 System operability – dynamic stability analysis NEW NEW

  19. European – regional – countryreports for different audiences Boundary market reinforcement 2030 No action to all projects (2030 – 40) 2040 optimal grid study System operability

  20. 2030 boundary market reinforcements What are boundaries? A group of borders between market nodes. Identified in TYNDP 2016, confirmed in TYNDP 2018. They correspond to the main locks to electricity exchanges across Europe Why boundaries, not borders? To show systemic flows likely to happen whatever scenario materialises, and whatever the initial set up of the electricity system.

  21. 2030 boundary market reinforcements How much money is saved annually on Europeans wholesale electricity market compared to 2020 grid 3 scenarios Starting point: 2020 interconnection capacity on the boundary Total capacity at the boundary (all capacities outside of the boundary remain fixed at TYNDP ref grid level)

  22. 2040 optimal grid analysis Why 2040? Large share of the energy transition will have materialized. Preparation for this time horizon should start now. Projects to be commissioned by 2030 will live most of their lives in scenarios closer to the 2040 ones Never done before What did we look at? Capacity increases across Europe justified by market, security of supply or RES integration considerations, beyond the projects of the TYNDP 2016 reference grid Why borders, not boundaries? To show how after 2030 needs are addressed, further developments will still be needed and should be explored. Result does not show the “most optimal setup” (impossible in such distant timeframe), but proves one set up which would provide benefits to the system

  23. 2040 optimal grid analysis

  24. Other analysis Interconnection targets Interconnection targets indicators proposed by the Expert Group were computed with both 2020 and reference grid for all 2030 scenarios No action 2030 2040 All projects 2030 What would happen in terms of security of supply, RES integration and market integration if we stopped all projects beyond those under construction? What would happen if we implemented all the TYNDP projects (including competing or redundant projects)? System operability – dynamic stability analysis System services are expected to form a major part of system costs in the future, possibly beoming more important than wholesale electricity markets. TYNDP 2018 for the first time estimates the situation in future scenarios. Further studies needed to assess the scale and costs of the solutions that will be needed.

  25. TYNDP 2018 Package : content and development steps TYNDP 2018 Scenarios CBA • 1 • 2 • 3 System needs 4

  26. Overview of CBA indicators

  27. Overview of CBA indicators Indicators Multi-criteria approach Single European Modeling team guarantees consistency of results across Europe Commercially available tools All indicators tested for all 2030 scenarios, using 3 sets of climate conditions Approach Put one IN at a Time (PINT) B B A C B A D C A D C Reference grid Take One Out at a Time (TOOT) D

  28. Reference grid: • Declared commissioning date =< 2030 • Commissioned and • Under construction and • Planned projects able to prove by a written acknowledgement by a competent body that application to the permitting phase has started (similar to the pre-application phase defined for PCIs defined in TEN-E) = no network studies

  29. Climate years The clustering wasdone for 3 clusters. The graph shows the average values of the cluster. The input data are, for eachyear, for eachregion: the differencebetween the value and the average of all years. For the graph, the data are aggregated by type. • Storyline for cluster 1 : high load, dry in Scandinavia and lowwind • Storyline for cluster 2 : medium load, normal in Scandinavia and high wind • Storyline for cluster 3 : lowload, wet in Scandinavia and high wind

  30. B6/B7/B8: Security of supply • 2nd CBA methodology introduces a new indicator structure for security of supply • Old security of supply-related indicators: • B1: security of supply • B6: technical resilience • B7: robustness/flexibility

  31. RES integration Variation in CO2 emissions Improvements • development of concepts for monetising the additional value B5. Variation in losses Changes since CBA 1 • Mandatory monetization of losses • Calculation of losses should be representative for pan-European system

  32. 2nd CBA guideline – Storage projects • Storage is a main part of CBA • Principle: no discrimination between storage and transmission Changes since CBA 1 • Storage is moved from annex to chapter • Improved consistency in computation of storage/transmission • System flexibility indicator: ‘tailor-made’ computation for storage projects

  33. Beyond the CBA High RES and efficient gas share lead to decreasing wholesale prices, increase gap between what the CBA measures and reality of system costs and benefits • Missing benefits not captured by the current 2nd CBA guideline • A.1 Reductions of costs for ancillary services • A.2 Reduction of emissions (non-CO2) • Missing benefits not covered by the current 2nd CBA guideline applying to transmission projects only • B.1 Synchronisation with Continental Europe (for Baltic States) • B.2 Avoidance of the renewal/replacement costs of infrastructure • Missing benefits not adequately covered by TYNDP 2018 implementation of the current 2nd CBA guideline applying to transmission and/or storage projects • C.1 Reduction of necessary reserve for re-dispatch power plants

  34. Beyond the CBA - 2 Approaches exist which could not be included in the CBA (for timing or methodological reasons) • Contribution to the removal of infrastructure bottlenecks which are caused by loop flows or transit flows (transmission only) • B6 indicator: Security of Supply - Adequacy to meet demand • Monetarisation of B7 indicator: Security of Supply – System Flexibility

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