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A presentation at the National Conclave on India’s Energy Security Foundation, New Delhi

The Role of Government, Companies & Markets in Coal Supply Security. A presentation at the National Conclave on India’s Energy Security Foundation, New Delhi February 14, 2006. by T L Sankar. ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF COLLEGE OF INDIA Bella Vista :: Hyderabad-500 082.

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A presentation at the National Conclave on India’s Energy Security Foundation, New Delhi

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  1. The Role of Government, Companies & Markets in Coal Supply Security A presentation at the National Conclave on India’s Energy Security Foundation, New Delhi February 14, 2006 by T L Sankar ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF COLLEGE OF INDIA Bella Vista :: Hyderabad-500 082

  2. Importance of Coal in Commercial Primary Energy • Coal has been the primary source of supply of total commercial energy consumed in India. • It share has been value over 50% in the last 50 years. • Coal is followed by oil and by natural gas since 1990. • Primary electricity produced from non-fuel sources was occupying the 3rd position till 1990 and is know become the smallest contributor of primary energy. • This pattern of fuel consumption is in harmony with the resource endowment of India in primary energy sources. • Electricity is produced as thermal power from coal and from natural gas and total electricity produced as primary and secondary is the largest contributor of energy.

  3. Total PCES In Mtoe Coal Mtoe (%) Oil Mtoe (%) NG Mtoe (%) Primary Electricity Mtoe (%) IMPORTS Mtoe (%) Year 1980-81 97.9 58.5 (59.7 34.0 (34.7) 1.3 (1.3) 4.2 (4.3) 23.7 (24.2) 1990-91 191.5 114.4 (59.7) 59.7 (31.2) 10.9 (5.7) 6.5 (3.4) 32.1 (16.8) 2000-01 314.1 175.2 (55.8) 107.4 (34.2) 23.9 (7.6) 7.6 (2.4) 93.6 (29.8) 2003-04 351.8 200.5 (57.0) 117.1 (33.3) 26.5 (7.5) 7.8 (2.2) 109.0 (31.0) Growth Rate 80-03 5.7 5.5 5,5 14.0 2.8 6.9 Percentage share of different Fuels in total energy consumption. Total PCES =Total Primary Commercial Energy Supply Mtoe = million tones of oil equivalent Coal = coal and Lignite Primary electricity=produced from non-fuel resources

  4. Resource Total potential Usable resource Level of Use 2005 Years of use At 2005 level Remarks Coal * 92.96 Billion Tonnes BT Proved reserves 52.24 BT 400 million tonnes 130 years With 7-8% growth of production it might last 50 years More reserves likely to be proved. Oil reserves 739.1739.1 MT 739.1 MT 33.98 MT 22 years New discoveries appear remote NG reserves 922.8 Billion Cubic Meters (BCM) 922.8 BCM 31.78 BCM 29 years New discoveries Very likely Hydro-potential 150,000 MW at about 40% load factor 150,000 MW 30936 MW - Future projects mostly peaking Summary of energy resource potential as known on 1-1-2005 Notes: Coal does not include Lignite. Several deposits of lignite are becoming usable

  5. Forecast of Future Energy Demand • There are several forecast with varying assumptions. • The most authoritative one is the forecast by Integrated Energy Policy Committee which has invited public comments in December 2005. • The basic assumptions are • GDP Growth will be 8% per year till 2031-32. • Elasticity of energy consumption with GDP will declined gradually over time. • There will be emphasis on exploiting non-fuel electricity resources namely hydel, nuclear and renewables to the maximum. • The fuel use pattern in thermal power generation will be decided by the relative availability and price of coal and natural gas.

  6. Year Hydro Nuclear Coal&lignite Oil products Natural Gas Total PCES 2006-07 9 7 204 125 36 381 2011-12 15 15 269 157 52 508 2016-17 19 29 360 201 75 684 2021-22 24 54 456 259 108 901 2026-27 34 79 632 334 155 1234 2031-32 43 115 816 435 224 1633 Growth rate 06-31- 6.7 12.2 5.8 4.1 7.6 5.9 Forecast of energy demand fuel-wise under IEP Report Preferred Scenario All in Mtoe

  7. Two Scenarios of Fuel choice for thermal power • The total electricity requirement was separately forecast by using the electricity to GDP elasticity. • Of the total demand for electricity maximum production was forecast for hydro electric power and nuclear power. The Committee has assumed a modest growth in renewables. • The remaining electricity demand has to be met by thermal power produced from coal and natural gas. • Scenario preferred by the IEP assumes that coal production due to varies constraints will grow only at about the same rate as seen in the last 30 years and the remaining power demand would come from natural gas. • An alternate scenario can be that the natural gas due to its high and uncertain price will be used only to the extent coal will not be used. These two scenarios are compared.

  8. Year units hydro nuclear coal 0il products NG Total PCES 2003-04 Mtoe 7 5 167 119 29 327 2031-32 Case I Scenario Mtoe 43 115 816 435 224 1633 2031-32 Case II scenario Mtoe 49 89 940 493 121 1692 Share of fuels 2003-04 %of Total 2.1 1.5 51.1 36.4 8.9 100 Share of fuels Case I Scenario %of Total 2.6 7.0 50.0 26.6 13.8 100 Share of fuels Case II Scenario % of Total 2.9 5.3 55.6 29.1 7.1 100 Growth rate 1980-2003 Case I scenario %per year 6.1 11.9 5.8 4,7 7.6 5.9 Case II Scenario %per year 7.2 10.8 6.4 5.2 5.2 6.0 Comparison of two Scenarios of Energy Forecast

  9. Constraints to increasing coal production • The coal resources assessment is tardy and resources as assessed are in adequate. • The resource assessment takes note of reserves at depths of more than 600 meters which cannot be exploited on currently available technology. • The extractable reserves are only a small fraction the assessed reserves and therefore this needs to be assessed. • The agencies to exploit coal reserves only two public sector companies and these are not geared to increase their activities beyond the levels already achieved.

  10. Depth (m) Proved (in BT) Indicated (In BT) Inferred (In BT) Total (In BT) (In %) 0-300 71 66.5 15 152.5 61.5 300-600 6.5 39.5 17 63 25 0-600 (Jharia) 14 0.5 - 14.5 6 600-1200 1.5 10.5 6 18 7 Total 93 117 38 248 100 % 37.5 47 15.5 100 Depth wise Geological Coal Reserve as on 1.1.2005

  11. Area Geological Reserves Extractable Reserves Proved Indicated Inferred Total CIL Blocks 67.71 19.42 4.56 91.69 30.03 Rest 25.25 97.66 33.24 156.15 22.21 Total 92.96 117.08 37.80 247.84 52.24 Tentative Extractable Reserves of the National Coal Inventory

  12. Year 1993-95 1996-98 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Numbers. 3 10 2 2 1 1 22 5 22 Year-wise Details of Captive Blocks Allotted

  13. Conclusion • Building a coal based future for power sector is not easy but the alternatives are more difficult. • Coal use achieved in China sets an example of the extent to which the coal production can be accelerated. • The measures needed are • a well designed programme to intensify efforts to explore and prove more reserves should be taken up. • The detailed planning of mines with full information on reserves, habitations in the area and the commercial value of the mines should be taken up systematically. • The Coal mining should be opened to the private initiative through captive coal mine allocations. • Effort should be made to define principles and procedures of environmental approvals in away to avoid delay an expedite decision. • Transport tariff for cal must be rationalized. 4. If there is adequate attention paid to coal as is done to hydro carbons the future of the energy security through coal can be achieved.

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