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Predicting Landscape Pathways Using Possum Parentage

This study explores how a possum's parentage can help forecast possible movement routes across different landscapes, focusing on invasive spread in New Zealand involving brushtail possums and red deer. The research uses patch-matrix landscape dispersal models to analyze homogenous and heterogeneous matrix compositions like those found in Kouchibouguac National Park in Canada and Puhoi River Valley in New Zealand. By calculating least-cost paths and pathways, the analysis aims to understand connectivity and relatedness in possum genetics, considering factors like genetic distance, separation by rivers, and landscape features. The findings can provide insights into effective conservation and management strategies.

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Predicting Landscape Pathways Using Possum Parentage

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  1. Using a possum’s parentage to predict possible pathways across landscapes Thomas R. Etherington

  2. Invasive spread in New Zealand Brushtail Possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) Red Deer (Cervus elaphus) adapted from King (2005)

  3. Patch-matrix landscape dispersal ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? Year 3 Year 4 Year 1 Year 2

  4. Matrix composition Homogenous Kouchibouguac National Park, Canada Heterogeneous Puhoi River Valley, New Zealand

  5. Friction surface Landscape Forest Grass Rock Water Cost 1 10 100 1000

  6. Least-cost paths Ca + Cb 2 cd ab = Dab × Cb + Cc 2 a b cd bc = D bc × c (D = distance, C = cost) LCPac = cd ab + cd bc LCP = 32×103 Cost LCP = 57×103 1 16×103 m Start point 10 End point 100 Least-cost pathway LCP = 16×103 1000

  7. Least-cost spread 20000 15000 10000 5000 from Lockwood et al. (2007)

  8. Connectivity and Relatedness ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?

  9. Hawke’s Bay Possum Genetics Genetic distance Euclidean distance (m) Separated by a river Genetic distance Not separated by a river Euclidean distance (m) from Cowan et al. (2006)

  10. Hawke’s Bay Possum Genetics Wide river Genetic distance High Low N 10 Kilometres

  11. Acknowledgements

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