How to evaluate China GDP growth with the impact of SARS by Meta-synthesis System Approach

1. IIASA CSM Special Session on Meta-Synthesis How to evaluate China GDP growth with the impact of SARS by Meta-synthesis System Approach NSFC Major project 79990580 September 11, 2003

2. Contents • Brief introduction to the Metasynthesis System Approach • Introduction to a collaborative Tool: PathMaker • Introduction to Experiment • Test Flow • PathMaker Template • Strength & Weakness

3. Brief introduction to the Metasynthesis System Approach • Metasynthesis approach aims to unite organically the data, information, model and experience to solve the open complex giant system problems. • The design of Hall of Workshop for Meta-synthetic Engineering (HWMSE) contributes to collect and develop the knowledge and wisdom or creation directly from experts and decision makers who attend the discussion meeting in this Hall.

4. Generic Framework of HWMSE Social Recognition Knowledge System Reform World Result Expert System Proposition Recognition of World Machine System Social Practice Objective World

5. Contents of Meta-synthesis Qualitative Meta-Synthesis Qualitative-Quantitative Meta-Synthesis Meta-Synthesis From Qualitative Hypothesis to Quantitative Validation

6. For realizing the MSA we design a flowchart: from synchronous meeting I to asynchronous analysis, then synchronous meeting II. If the problem is not solving ,we will iterate this process again and again until getting some solution, or consensus.

7. Meeting Process in HWMSE Synchronous I Asynchronous Synchronous II

8. Divergent Convergent Data Information Synchronous I Knowledge Asynchronous Case Synchronous II PathMaker ECB, GAE, etc. Hypotheses, Scenarios

9. Asynchronous Synchronous I Synchronous II Econometric Model Modeling by Mechanism Time Series, RA Modeling by Data Modeling by Rules Multi-Agent Simulation Modeling by Learning Modeling by Evolutionary Scenario Modeling by Case

10. Possibly Satisfying Approach Meta-Synthesis System Reconstruction Synchronous II Synchronous I Asynchronous AHP, Nominal Group, ECB PathMaker, ExpertChoice

11. Asynchronous Synchronous I Synchronous II Main Hall (Beijing) (see Dai, Cui & Li’s reports) Seminar Room (Xi’an) Modeling Agent Decision Technologies Agent Seminar Room (Beijing)

12. Introduction to a collaborative Tool: PathMaker

13. As a software tool for assisting teams or individuals to improve their projects or solving problems by discussion and analysis. • We use it as a tool for applying MSA to solving the problems in the macroeconomic system. • Some other tools or methods are also applied, such as Group Argumentation Environment, Data mining and some economic models as mentioned before.

14. 5 components 8 kinds of tools

15. Starting a project with Pathway • Pathway is an important concept of PathMaker, Each project follows a pathway. The pathway is the backbone of a project, providing access to tools, meetings, and just-in-time instruction. Users make project plan, use different tools, arrange meeting, create agenda and so on in the Project Pathway.

16. The Pathway of MSA Test in IIASA by PathMaker /1

17. The Pathway of MSA Test in IIASA by PathMaker /2

18. Other four parts along with a Project Pathway: • Project Information: All the information about the projects can be included in Project Information. • Team Member: The information of all the team member, including members’ names, passwords, limitation, and their responsibility are recorded and managed here. • Action Items: Includes ID, description, person responsible, deadline and status. • Discussion History: Every team member can design and trigger an on-line discussion, either in a intranet or in internet

19. Introduction to IIASA Experiment

20. Preparation • One preparation meeting for discussion Time, Place, Team Members, Meeting Tools and Action Items in the meeting. • Place:Conference room in IIASA • Chairman: Jifa Gu and Makowski Marek • Team Member: • Meeting Tools: computers; projectors; printer; reticles and Software (PathMaker, Expert Choice, Internet) • Meeting Action Item:

21. Prepare Meeting M0

25. M1-1 Free Discussion

27. Free Discussion by Brainstorming / Affinity Tool

28. Group Argumentation by GAE (See Tang’s report)

29. Registration to GAE/Pathmaker

30. M1-3 Further Discussion

31. Cause and effect diagram is a versatile tool for arranging ideas in a tree structure. Cause & Effect Tool can be used to discover the reasons for a certain result. It denotes the cause-effect relationship in a tree form. Uses include the traditional fault tree or root cause analysis, organization diagramming, parts hierarchies, project planning, tree diagrams, and the 5 Whys. • Force Field Tool can be used to analyze and display the driving forces and restraining forces of a transformation. It is composed of four columns. From the left to right, the first column denotes the driving forces, the second denotes how strong the driving forces are, the third denotes how strong the restraining forces are and the fourth denotes the restraining forces.

32. Cause and effect diagram about High development scenario

33. Force Field Analysis

34. Analysis Use different models to making analysis of macroeconomic system • Model I: Modeling by knowing mechanism of system,e.g. econometric model (See Zhou’s report) • Model II: Modeling by Data, such as some Data Mining models (See Tian’s report) • Model III: System Reconstructability Analysis (see Gu’s report)

35. Consensus Building Tool

36. Using Consensus Builder not only can evaluate and quantify opinions, but also can structurize the discussion. There are three methods users can use to build consensus with this tool, which are: • Rating Vote • Multivote • Group Multivote

37. Discussion of Strength and Weakness(all participants)