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Flexicurity in the crisis or the crisis of flexicurity? Ton Wilthagen

Flexicurity in the crisis or the crisis of flexicurity? Ton Wilthagen Tilburg University, the Netherlands. wilthagen @ uvt.nl www.uvt.nl / reflect. Questions on preconditions of flexicurity – when it all begun.

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Flexicurity in the crisis or the crisis of flexicurity? Ton Wilthagen

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  1. Flexicurity in the crisis or the crisis of flexicurity? Ton Wilthagen Tilburg University, the Netherlands wilthagen@uvt.nlwww.uvt.nl/reflect

  2. Questions on preconditions of flexicurity – when it all begun • Geography: is flexicurity only possible in the North Western part of Europe, where certain levels of flexibility and security already exist? • Size: is flexicurity a “small country thing” – coordination is the problem in large countries (federal structure) • Personal factor: does flexicurity depend on certain architects/ institutional agents? • Labour market/business cycle: is flexicurity only feasible in sound economic and labour market conditions?

  3. Is flexicurity a sunny weather concept? Flexicurity

  4. How about flexicurity in bad weather? Crisis is natural experiment!

  5. This presentation 1 Flexicurity itself as a paradigm shift in the regulation of labour markets and employment 2 Does the crisis mean a shift? • the content (modalities) of flexicurity? • in the coordination and organisation of flexicurity? • In the performance of flexicurity • in the flexicurity solutions? 3. And where is this all taking us?

  6. Measuring flexicurity Source: Chung & Wilthagen, forthcoming

  7. Policy change: significant or not? • Currentpolicynotworking • Symbolicfor the public or EU • Structuralortemporary ? Policychange Country • Currentpolicy adequate • Or: change notpossible – politics, capacityor money No change Danish flexicurity in crisis

  8. Flexibility and security modalities (Flexicurity Matrix)

  9. Flexibility and security modalities (Flexicurity Matrix)

  10. The crisis and flexibility and security modalities

  11. Over past year much effort has been put in developing flexicurity indicators • EMCO (Employment Committee of EU) http://ec.europa.eu/social/main.jsp?catId=102&langId=en • European Commission: composite indicators on contractual flexibility, life-long learning, ALMP and modern social security • By academics: various indicators (sometimes mixing up ‘efforts’ and ‘states’ indicators), among which dynamic indicators (Ruud Muffels)

  12. Background indicators Draft flexicurity 2007 Communication

  13. Measuring flexicurity (state, policy) Measuring flexicurity performance (in view of crisis and in general)

  14. Measuring flexicurity performance in times of crisis • Economic growth/recovery? • (Un)employment rates, change of these rates? • Labour market participation levels? • Unemployment duration/long-term unemployment rates? • Mobility/labour turnover/job to job rates? • Speed/chance of reintegration back into the labour market? • Job destruction/creation rates? • Position of weak groups (temp workers)? • Investments in ALMP/LLL • Income replacement rates • Subjective assessment of job/income insecurity?

  15. Unemployment rates in the EU

  16. Change in part-timeemployment as a share of totalemploymentbetween 2008Q2 and 2009Q Part-timeworkincreasesdue to shorterworkinghoursschemes and reduction of working-time

  17. How should this be evaluated? Employees with temporary contracts

  18. Solutions: how about the pathways to flexicurity? • Flexicurity pathway 1: dealing with flexibility at the margin • Flexicurity pathway 2: securing transitions from job to job • Flexicurity pathway 3: access to learning and good transitions for all • Flexicurity pathway 4: comprehensive social security supporting transitions to regular work Need for specific ‘crisis pathway’?

  19. To conclude with Back to the question: flexicurity in crisis times or the crisis of flexicurity? • Face of flexicurity might change, but rather temporarily than in a structural way • From Danish/Dutch external flexibility + employment security to continental (German, Belgian etc) combination of internal flexibility + job security • A (temporary) shift ‘powered by’ the State and less by the social partners • European Commission wishes to continue flexicurity post 2010

  20. Commission’s Communication on release of Employment in Europe 2009 • European labour markets will be changed profoundly by the crisis and the transition to a low carbon, knowledge-based economy, and workers and companies must be given the necessary means and incentives to successfully adjust to these changing realities in ways which favour inclusion, equity and social justice. Flexicurity, combined with comprehensive active inclusion policies, remains the right approach to both modernising labour markets and ensuring a successful recovery.

  21. To conclude with • Who will be the carriers of flexicurity other than traditional social partners? • Flexibility will spread, notwithstanding future labour shortages; traditional securities will not expand. • Flexi-quality will be precondition for future flexicurity: quality, productivity and sustainable use of both human and natural resources • Much interest coming from countries outside EU (which often already have high levels of flexibility and are lacking security, but not in all cases) • Better indicators and monitoring are essential!

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