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Guidelines for a SWFDP case study

Guidelines for a SWFDP case study . Richard (Rick) Jones Regional training Workshop on Severe Weather SEA , Macau , 8-13 April , 2013. Case Study of TC Nesat. Case study of Typhoon Nesat (1117) [Corrigendum] Shum Chi-tai Or Ming- keung Hong Kong Observatory Abstract

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Guidelines for a SWFDP case study

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  1. Guidelines for a SWFDP case study Richard (Rick) Jones Regional training Workshop on Severe Weather SEA , Macau, 8-13 April , 2013

  2. Case Study of TC Nesat • Case study of Typhoon Nesat (1117) • [Corrigendum] • Shum Chi-tai Or Ming-keung • Hong Kong Observatory • Abstract • Typhoon Nesat (1117) developed over the western North Pacific to the east of the • Philippines on 23 September 2011, and moved west-northwest steadily towards Luzon • in the following few days. As Nesat entered into and traversed the northern part of the • South China Sea during 27 to 29 September, the maximum sustained wind speed near • its centre maintained around 130 km/h. However, satellite images showed there were • signs of expansion of its circulation. NOAA analysis of wind field on the night of 28 • September and the early morning of 29 September indicated that the gale radius of • Nesat increased by over 100 kilometres in 6 hours. The expansion of Nesat’s • circulation resulted in a more significant beta effect, causing Nesat to take a more • northwesterly track closer to Hong Kong from the night of 28 September. Owing to • the extensive circulation of Nesat and its closer approach to the south China coast, • gales affected many places in Hong Kong during the morning of 29 September and • the Observatory needed to issue the No.8 Gale or Storm Signal. This paper reviews • the performance of various numerical weather prediction models on the forecast track • of Nesat, in particular during its passage over the northern part of the South China Sea. • Factors favouring the expansion of Nesat’s circulation are also analyzed with an aim • to improving operational forecasting of tropical cyclones.

  3. Case study • TC- Nesat • Conclusions? • Purpose? • Who would it be useful to? • Format: Body of text versus annexes

  4. Case study • Scientific or significant event study? • Why make a SWFDP case study?

  5. SWFDP case study Relate to SWFDP goals, • to improve the ability of NMCs to forecast severe weather events; • to improve the lead time of alerting of these events; • to improve interaction of NMCs with DMCPA before and during events; • to identify gaps and areas for improvements; • to improve the skill of products from GDPFS Centres through feedback from NMCs.

  6. Who are the users Users: • Colleagues • Colleagues from other offices; • Supervisors and administrators; • International users

  7. Before you begin… • What is the conclusion? Begin with the end in mind! • Gather facts, images, reports that support (or not) your conclusions • Write an outline with facts in point form Format: • Use explicit internet links and scientific notation for references

  8. Outline • Abstract • Introduction • Weather situation • Forecasts and warnings issued • Weather products used • Observation and impacts ? • Evaluation of the forecasts • Conclusion, recommendations

  9. Abstract • Summarize main facts and conclusions. • Reader should be drawn to read further

  10. Introduction • Why is this case study being considered; why is it important? • Are there others like it? • Is there a body of scientific knowledge that supports the phenomena • Tell the reader what they are about to read this will invite the reader to read further.

  11. Weather situation • Include maps and narrative describing the actual weather situation and the precursors; details in annexes • Describe forcing – eg. heating from below; local moisture sources; orography; tidal influences etc. • Eg. Tropical cyclones; • Extra-tropical lows; • Severe convective storms; • Flooding coastal and river • Sea-breeze; valley winds;

  12. Forecasts and warnings • Summarize forecasts and warnings issued keeping in mind issue time , onset time , valid time, area forecasted and intensity of the phenomenon • How was the forecast disseminated to the DMCPA, media? ; was there any interactions with them? • Details should be in the annex

  13. Weather products used • Supporting RSMC products used (eg. TC RSMC or SWFDP RSMC) • Supporting products from global and local NWP models used; • Details should be in the Annex

  14. Observations and Impacts • Observations that provide evidence of the phenomenon eg. Rain gauge; anemometer; boueys; thermometer; flow meter; human observation; photos • Supplement with remote sensing – satellite and radar Impacts: • Reports from emergency organizations; news reports? • Reports about damage due to the phenomena (eg. Wind damage flooding damage, etc.)

  15. Evaluation of the forecasts • Objective or subjective evaluation of the quality of the forecasts; • How good were they? • What are the problems? • Usefulness of the forecasts to the users

  16. Conclusions and recommendations • Main conclusions – can you conclude based on the evidence what you set out to conclude i.e. back in the introduction and mentioned in the Abstract)? • What further areas of study does this lead to? • Is this study applicable to other areas? • What should be changed if anything – products; procedures; formats?

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