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Guidelines for a SWFDP case study

This case study analyzes Typhoon Nesat (2011) as part of the SWFDP Regional Training Workshop held in Macau. With considerable wind speeds and extensive circulation, Nesat's trajectory impacted weather forecasting significantly. This report evaluates the performance of numerical weather prediction models, identifying gaps and opportunities for improvement in operational forecasting. It provides an overview of forecast warnings issued, the weather situation, observations, impacts, and offers actionable conclusions aimed at enhancing severe weather event predictions for national meteorological centers.

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Guidelines for a SWFDP case study

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  1. Guidelines for a SWFDP case study Richard (Rick) Jones Regional training Workshop on Severe Weather SEA , Macau, 8-13 April , 2013

  2. Case Study of TC Nesat • Case study of Typhoon Nesat (1117) • [Corrigendum] • Shum Chi-tai Or Ming-keung • Hong Kong Observatory • Abstract • Typhoon Nesat (1117) developed over the western North Pacific to the east of the • Philippines on 23 September 2011, and moved west-northwest steadily towards Luzon • in the following few days. As Nesat entered into and traversed the northern part of the • South China Sea during 27 to 29 September, the maximum sustained wind speed near • its centre maintained around 130 km/h. However, satellite images showed there were • signs of expansion of its circulation. NOAA analysis of wind field on the night of 28 • September and the early morning of 29 September indicated that the gale radius of • Nesat increased by over 100 kilometres in 6 hours. The expansion of Nesat’s • circulation resulted in a more significant beta effect, causing Nesat to take a more • northwesterly track closer to Hong Kong from the night of 28 September. Owing to • the extensive circulation of Nesat and its closer approach to the south China coast, • gales affected many places in Hong Kong during the morning of 29 September and • the Observatory needed to issue the No.8 Gale or Storm Signal. This paper reviews • the performance of various numerical weather prediction models on the forecast track • of Nesat, in particular during its passage over the northern part of the South China Sea. • Factors favouring the expansion of Nesat’s circulation are also analyzed with an aim • to improving operational forecasting of tropical cyclones.

  3. Case study • TC- Nesat • Conclusions? • Purpose? • Who would it be useful to? • Format: Body of text versus annexes

  4. Case study • Scientific or significant event study? • Why make a SWFDP case study?

  5. SWFDP case study Relate to SWFDP goals, • to improve the ability of NMCs to forecast severe weather events; • to improve the lead time of alerting of these events; • to improve interaction of NMCs with DMCPA before and during events; • to identify gaps and areas for improvements; • to improve the skill of products from GDPFS Centres through feedback from NMCs.

  6. Who are the users Users: • Colleagues • Colleagues from other offices; • Supervisors and administrators; • International users

  7. Before you begin… • What is the conclusion? Begin with the end in mind! • Gather facts, images, reports that support (or not) your conclusions • Write an outline with facts in point form Format: • Use explicit internet links and scientific notation for references

  8. Outline • Abstract • Introduction • Weather situation • Forecasts and warnings issued • Weather products used • Observation and impacts ? • Evaluation of the forecasts • Conclusion, recommendations

  9. Abstract • Summarize main facts and conclusions. • Reader should be drawn to read further

  10. Introduction • Why is this case study being considered; why is it important? • Are there others like it? • Is there a body of scientific knowledge that supports the phenomena • Tell the reader what they are about to read this will invite the reader to read further.

  11. Weather situation • Include maps and narrative describing the actual weather situation and the precursors; details in annexes • Describe forcing – eg. heating from below; local moisture sources; orography; tidal influences etc. • Eg. Tropical cyclones; • Extra-tropical lows; • Severe convective storms; • Flooding coastal and river • Sea-breeze; valley winds;

  12. Forecasts and warnings • Summarize forecasts and warnings issued keeping in mind issue time , onset time , valid time, area forecasted and intensity of the phenomenon • How was the forecast disseminated to the DMCPA, media? ; was there any interactions with them? • Details should be in the annex

  13. Weather products used • Supporting RSMC products used (eg. TC RSMC or SWFDP RSMC) • Supporting products from global and local NWP models used; • Details should be in the Annex

  14. Observations and Impacts • Observations that provide evidence of the phenomenon eg. Rain gauge; anemometer; boueys; thermometer; flow meter; human observation; photos • Supplement with remote sensing – satellite and radar Impacts: • Reports from emergency organizations; news reports? • Reports about damage due to the phenomena (eg. Wind damage flooding damage, etc.)

  15. Evaluation of the forecasts • Objective or subjective evaluation of the quality of the forecasts; • How good were they? • What are the problems? • Usefulness of the forecasts to the users

  16. Conclusions and recommendations • Main conclusions – can you conclude based on the evidence what you set out to conclude i.e. back in the introduction and mentioned in the Abstract)? • What further areas of study does this lead to? • Is this study applicable to other areas? • What should be changed if anything – products; procedures; formats?

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