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SWFDP - 5 TH QUARTER CASE STUDY

This study analyzes the thundershowers that occurred over the Lake Victoria basin on December 31, 2012. Utilizing real-time satellite imagery from EUMETSAT and ECMWF, this case explores mean sea level pressure and precipitation probabilities. The guidance models indicated some potential for precipitation; however, the amounts did not reach the RSMC-Nairobi threshold. The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) suggested conditions were within the climate mean for the region. This report discusses the implications for forecasting in the area and draws conclusions from the observed data.

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SWFDP - 5 TH QUARTER CASE STUDY

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  1. SWFDP - 5TH QUARTER CASE STUDY LAVE VICTORIA BASIN THUNDERSHOWERS OF 31ST DECEMBER, 2012

  2. REALTIME SATELLITE IMAGERIES FROM EUMETSAT

  3. ECMWF MSLP & PRECIPITATION PROBABBILITIES

  4. UK LAM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS

  5. EA GUIDANCE MODELS

  6. CONCLUSION • Most models considered above showed some signal for precipitation around Lake Victoria, • Precipitation amounts did not attain the level of the RSMC – Nairobi threshold, • Extreme Forecast Index depicted nothing above the climate mean of the Lake Victoria region.

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