Labor Market Information: Key Factors Driving Current & Future Job Demand in Michigan

1. Labor Market Information: Key Factors Driving Current & Future Job Demand in Michigan Michigan Department of Technology, Management & Budget Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives

2. Key Factors Driving Job Demand • What are some of the key current trends in the Michigan labor market? • What are likely to be some of the key futuretrends in the Michigan labor market? • For some of Michigan’s key sectors: • What are the key factors driving current job demand in those industries? • What may be some of the factors impacting future job demand in these sectors?

3. Who We Are… • Bureau of Labor Market Information and Strategic Initiatives, part of the Department of Technology, Management and Budget • Responsible for producing and publishing information and analysis on the Michigan workforce and the state’s regions and counties • Most of our staff is located in Detroit, but a few economic analysts are situated in Lansing and other Michigan regions • Information on employment, unemployment, industry job trends, skill sets, occupations, wages, demographics of the labor pool, etc.

4. Key Recent Labor Market Trendsin Michigan • Labor force decline may have bottomed out • Michigan workforce levels fell for six consecutive years from 2007-2012 • Workforce levels rose by 37,000 in 2013, the first increase since 2006 • Michigan jobless rate dropped in 2013 for the fourth consecutive year, but remains above pre-recessionary level • Far fewer layoffs recently of persons with jobs, but job market remains competitive for the unemployed • Average duration of unemployment at a very high level; about 39 weeks

5. Jobless Rate Gap (Michigan vs. U.S.) Has Narrowed Since 2009 Michigan Rate Still Above 2008 Levels

6. Recent Trends in Jobs • Payroll jobs advanced in Michigan in 2013 for the third consecutive year • Michigan job gains over the last several years: • Manufacturing • Health care • Technical services • Temporary help services • Restaurants • Mortgage banking • Job losses primarily in government

7. Recent Trends in Job Openings • Michigan top occupations with online job vacancies: • Registered nurses • Truck drivers • Retail sales workers and managers • Industrial engineers • Customer service representatives • Mechanical engineers • Computer systems analysts • Faster openings growth over year in services, transportation, installation & repair, health care support, and management occupations • Slow growth over year in clerical and sales job postings • Diverse set of industry sectors posting jobs

8. Potential Future Trends in the Michigan Labor Market • Michigan population and labor force growth expected to be more modest than national average • Aging of the workforce will impact demand for goods and services, and produce job openings for replacement workers • Above average job growth expected for jobs requiring an associate’s, bachelor’s, or master’s degree • Continued “upskilling” of jobs expected in some sectors in terms of educational/training requirements • Additional educational attainment will continue to be associated with lower unemployment rates and higher wages

9. What Types of Questions on the Job Market Can be Addressed by Labor Market Information? • What questions can this type of information help to address? • What occupations have job openings now? • What occupations have a positive long-term job outlook? • Which Michigan industries are adding jobs? • What are the key skill requirements and educational requirements for specific occupations? • What jobs exist that do not require physical strength, good visual ability, or other specific requirements? • What is the average or entry level local wage for a specific occupation? • Who are the major employers in my area and how can I contact them? • What are the future high-demand job sectors in Michigan?

10. A Common Myth Regarding Unemployment Statistics • Is it true that unemployment statistics only reflect persons receiving unemployment insurance??? • No. This is not true • Unemployment estimates capture all persons meeting the definition of unemployment, including: • Persons who have lost jobs or are on layoff • Persons such as students seeking their first job • Persons reentering the work force after a period of absence • Persons who have exhausted UI benefits but are still seeking work • Persons who voluntarily leave a job but are still seeking work

11. What About “Discouraged Workers”? Why Are They Not Counted as Unemployed? • “Discouraged workers” are persons who say they want a job but are not seeking work because they feel there are no jobs available or no employer will hire them • Since they are not actively looking for work, they are not counted as unemployed in the official unemployment rate • The household survey allows for alternative calculations • Michigan’s jobless rate in 2013 was 8.6 percent • If discouraged workers were included in the calculation, the Michigan 2013 rate would have been 9.2 percent • “If all marginally attached” workers were included, the rate would be 10.1 percent • If persons working part-time who want full time work were added to the marginally attached and the unemployed, the rate would be 15.3 percent.

12. How Many Jobs Has Michigan Recovered Since the Low Points of the Most Recent National Recession? • Michigan has regained 286,000 jobs since the low point reached in March 2010 • Specific industry sectors and the Michigan job gains from recessionary low points include: • Manufacturing: + 120,000 jobs (+27.2 percent) • Professional & Business Services: + 115,000 jobs (+23.5 percent) • Construction: +17,000 jobs (+14.5 percent) • Retail: + 11,000 jobs (+2.4 percent) • Health Care managed to gain jobs throughout the recession, although job growth slowed • Health care jobs 45,000 above pre-recession 2007 levels (+8.7 percent)

13. Michigan Manufacturing Jobs Led Job Recovery Since Recession

14. ManufacturingRecent Factors Driving Job Demand • Manufacturing jobs in Michigan • Cut in almost half from 1999 to 2009 • Sector is top source of job growth over last year in Michigan economy • Recent job expansion primarily reflects strong rebound in domestic auto sales and auto production • Significant levels of investment in Michigan auto assembly operations • Job advances since 2009 reflect both recalls of laid off workers and new hires • Broad gains, with job growth rates of over 25 percent since 2009 in fabricated metals, plastics, primary metals, autos, and machinery manufacturing

15. ManufacturingFactors That May Impact Future Job Demand • Michigan’s competitive advantage: Skilled labor supply in advanced manufacturing production and auto-related design and engineering • Productivity gains and automation will tend to limit long-term job expansion in manufacturing • Pace of insourcing or outsourcing of production work • Michigan manufacturing success in export markets • Labor supply issues • Production jobs increasingly require technical education and skill • Young people will need to be attracted to production occupations to replace an aging workforce

16. Michigan Professional & Technical Services Jobs Jobs at Highest Level Since 2001

17. Professional & Technical ServicesRecent Factors Driving Job Demand • Sector is a key source of “knowledge jobs” for the Michigan economy; many high skill–high wage positions • Strong recent job additions in Engineering services, IT services, Research and development • Michigan highly ranked nationally in number and share of science and engineering jobs • Strong recovery of auto industry has promoted much of the recent job expansion in this sector • Increased jobs in business consulting and IT services have benefited by rebound in business investment after recession

18. Professional & Technical ServicesFactors That May Impact Future Job Demand • Michigan’s competitive advantage: A very high current share of jobs in engineering services • Future concentration of white collar technical jobs related to the auto industry • Pace of insourcing or outsourcing of IT functions • Technical jobs comprise an increased share of total jobs across many industries, leading to overall job gains • Technical services labor supply • Highly educated with most jobs requiring bachelor’s, associate’s degrees and above • Women are underrepresented in IT and engineering positions

19. Michigan Health Care Jobs Record Job Levels in 2013

20. Health CareRecent Factors Driving Job Demand • Only sector in Michigan with continuous job expansion even through the recession • Strong job gains in doctor’s offices, hospitals, home health care, social services • Investment in health care technology has created jobs in Michigan • Several prestigious medical centers in Michigan attract patients and conduct medical research • The aging of the Michigan population has generated increased demand for health services

21. Health CareFactors That May Impact Future Job Demand • Continued aging of the population – “Baby-boom” generation will be entirely 55+ by 2020 • Health status of the population • Emphasis on preventative care and home care could change dynamics of job demand • Continued pace of investment in health care technology • Health care labor supply – will need to replace an aging health care workforce • Health care reform and the need for cost containment in the overall health care system

22. Contains current monthly and quarterly data on the Michigan and regional job markets Economic data can be downloaded on a customized basis using Data Explorer tool Many publications with information on regional workforce trends Employment, unemployment, industries, occupations, forecasts, more DTMB Labor Market Information Website (www.michigan.gov/lmi)

23. O*NET Online • Interactive website to view information on key skills and knowledge for hundreds of occupations • Provides a means for comparing occupations on the relative importance and level of proficiency required in a number of skill and knowledge areas • The O*NET Work Context feature can be used to produce ranking lists for job seekers on a number of key characteristics. • www.onetonline.org

24. Projections Data: Long-Term Demand Industry and Occupational Long-term Forecasts • Produced for Michigan and 18 regions • Developed by DTMB and released in alternating years • Current forecast period 2010 to 2020 for Michigan and local forecast regions • Reflects long-term growth prospects Can be used to identify occupations or industries with above-average expected job growth; or to identify occupations that generate high numbers of annual job openings.

25. The Conference Board’s Help Wanted Online Data Series Help Wanted Online . . . Measures new, first-time online jobs and jobs reposted from previous months from about 1,000 major Internet job sites and small job sites that serve niche markets and smaller geographic areas. Follows the rigorous design standards used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and other Federal statistical agencies. Fills a key data gap for real-time information on available job openings for Michigan Michigan LMI has purchased the HWOL micro-data to produce detailed information on online ads for substate regions within Michigan.

26. Statewide HWOL Report This report is released monthly as new online job demand numbers are made available. It provides information on total online job ads, in-demand occupations, and other measures of labor markets, including the “ad rate” and the “supply demand rate.”

27. How We Use HWOL Provide Quick Overviews of Regional Labor Demand • Regional Online Job Demand Profiles • Real-Time Labor Demand Snapshots

28. Michigan Economic & Workforce Indicators Michigan Economic & Workforce Indicators and Insights • Biannual report tracking Michigan labor market trends • Provides a concise analysis of recent trends in various economic indicators as well as national or regional comparisons

29. Michigan’s HOT 50 Jobs • Overview of In-Demand Careers in the state for students and job seekers • Combines information on job forecasts, wages, and educational/training requirements

30. Other Useful Websites • Bureau of Labor Statistics www.bls.gov • Census Bureau www.census.gov • American Community Survey www.census.gov/acs/www • OnTheMap http://onthemap.ces.census.gov • Bureau of Economic Analysis www.bea.gov

31. Key Factors Driving Current & Future Job Demand in Michigan For additional information: Bureau of Labor Market Information & Strategic Initiatives Bruce Weaver Manager of Labor Market Analysis 313.456.3091 weaverb1@michigan.gov Please visit our website at www.michigan.gov/lmi