International climate change research & policy processes

1. International climate changeresearch & policy processes Andy Reisinger New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre (AgResearch, Wellington) Degrees of PossibilityNZCCC Social Science Workshop 6 December 2010

2. Outline The starting point Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: why, what, how, who? Some (very selected) scientific findings andkey social science contributions to IPCC Engagement with IPCC process Personal perspectives on social science challenges and opportunities in New Zealand

3. The starting point • Concerns about climate change initiated by atmospheric/earth system scientists ... • ... taken up by ecologists ... • ... taken up by technologists and economists ... • ... slowly diffusing into development, disaster management, resilience, sustainability discourses ... • ... with increasing considerations of policy design ... • ... and almost from day one under the shadow of political, ethical, lobby-group dynamics (only some of this has been subject of serious academic study). Social science is everywhere – but where is it !?

4. Climate change is directly linked to socio-economic development, resource management, and global commons. Thousands of scientific papers are published on these subjects every year.Where and how can governments get objective information to help their decision-making?

5. History of IPCC • set up jointly by UNEP and WMO in 1988, open to all nations part of WMO and UN (last count: 192) • to provide assessments of scientific and technical aspects of climate change, to inform policy choices • global and comprehensive drafting and open peer-review process to reflect wide range of perspectives • output mainly in form of comprehensive reports;also workshops and guidance documents “policy-relevant, but not policy-prescriptive” Careful handling of uncertainty and confidence

6. Some key scientific findings All reports are available in full and for free: www.ipcc.ch

7. Global average temperature

8. Recent warming is due to greenhouse gases

9. Recent warming is due to greenhouse gases Combination of volcanic eruptions and solar change would have resulted in small cooling over the last 50 years.

10. Recent warming is due to greenhouse gases Models are able to reproduce observed changes only if we include the warming effect of greenhouse gases. Combination of volcanic eruptions and solar change would have resulted in small cooling over the last 50 years.

11. Projections for the future • Start with scenariosfor future emissions – (internally consistent sets of assumptions about socio-economic change, energy and technology) • Use models simulating physical and chemical processes, and validated against past changes, to estimate future change • Compare models from different groups to assess model uncertainties

12. Future warming and historical context Even a low ‘business as usual’ scenario would lead to rapid global warming and temperatures greater than at any time during human civilisation. High, medium and lowgreenhouse gas scenarios forthe future Thermometer measurements Degrees oC Different Northern Hemisphere temperature records for the last 1300 years

13. But no one lives at the global average Medium (A1B) scenario (2090-2099): Global mean warming 2.8oC;Much of land area warms by ~3.5oC. Arctic warms by ~6oC. Different people are affected and will respond differently.

14. Implications and response options • Climate change impacts on sectors/regions • Adaptation options, costs, effectiveness, limits • Dependence on socio-economic development • Governance, institutional issues • Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: • Technical options • Costs • Policies • International collaboration

15. Social science inputs to date • Socio-economic drivers of GHG emissions • Integration of adaptation into development • Socio-economic determinants of vulnerability to climate change impacts • (some) behavioural and ecological economics applied to mitigation cost analysis • Policy design and effectiveness of technology diffusion and learning-by-doing cycles

16. IPCC AR5 – social science entry points

17. Engagement with IPCC process • IPCC 5th Assessment Report underwayChapter outlines and authors: www.ipcc.ch • Ways of contributing: • writing and publishing papers • making IPCC authors aware of relevant publications/work • participate in expert review process • act as contributing author if requested • Cut-off dates for literature: • March 2013 for WG I (physical science) • July 2013 for WG II (impacts/adaptation) • August 2013 for WGIII (mitigation) • address policy-relevant questionsthat can inform but don’t prescribe decision-making and that don’t assume or prescribe value-systems • inter- (multi-, trans-) disciplinary collaborationsthat address real-world problems

18. Key social science needs • Socio-economic development scenarios(drivers of greenhouse gas emissions; baseline for emissions reductions; potential impacts/vulnerability) • Measures/perceptions of well-being (beyond GDP) • drivers of consumption/growth • regional/local development scenarios • links between local and global scenarios • Climate change adaptation • Governance and policy design incl. long timescales • Interaction with competing development goals • Dealing with rapid, dynamic changes in social fabric (demographics, technology, environment)

19. Key social science needs • Real-world mitigation potential • Bridging the gap from economic to market potential • Dynamics of technology diffusion and deployment • Drivers, barriers and limits for behavioural change • Ecological/behavioural economics • Psychology of risk, individual/collective responses • perception of risk and timeframes • re-action and pro-action relating to disasters • barriers and motivations for indiv./collective action • communication of risk, cost and benefit • political economy of climate change • Serious, academic analysis of ethical dimensionsand their implications and relevance for policy

20. Challenges and opportunities • Managing the do-it-yourself social scientists • Assumptions, beliefs and value systems • The tyranny of number and universality • Cross-cutting issues relative to outcomes • The challenge of multi-discipline collaborations • Connecting with the policy environment, and the need to demonstrate real, tangible (quantified! here we go again) value from including social science findings in decision-making processes