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Forecasting Extreme Cold Snaps in the Midwest/Northeast U.S.

Forecasting Extreme Cold Snaps in the Midwest/Northeast U.S.

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Forecasting Extreme Cold Snaps in the Midwest/Northeast U.S.

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  1. Special thanks to SPHEAR’s 2009-2010 Industry Partners Citadel Investment GroupSusquehanna International GroupChesapeake Energy Forecasting Extreme Cold Snaps in the Midwest/Northeast U.S. Dr. Alexander GershunovDr. Kristen GuirguisStephen Bennett, JD

  2. Research Question Can we develop new methods for predicting the severe shocks in natural gas consumption and natural gas price associated with severe cold outbreaks in winter?

  3. 2009/2010 – How cold was it? Nov - Mar Dec - Feb

  4. Define Events Scripps Severe Cold Index – Reanalysis Calculation

  5. Scripps Severe Cold Index Uses data : 1948-2010 Local threshold calculated for each location (5th percentile) For each day and station, the number of degrees below the threshold is recorded The SSCI is the average of all local threshold exceedances Process Patent Pending University of California San Diego ℗

  6. Northern Europe: 51st Europe/Mediterranean: 20th Central Asia: 52nd Russia: 55th Far East: Warmest Alaska/Yukon: 3rd Canada: 2nd Eastern U.S.: 9th Process Patent Pending University of California San Diego ℗

  7. Process Patent Pending University of California San Diego ℗

  8. Scripps Severe Cold Index: Midwest/Northeast U.S.Station Calculation

  9. Primary Findings Several synoptic signatures indicate a statistically significant signal with a lead time of 20-30 days when linked to the incidence of severe cold outbreaks. Process Patent Pending University of California San Diego ℗

  10. Operational Case StudyNovember 22, 2009 • Based on SPHEAR analysis – it appears that the risk for a severe cold outbreak is less than 5% between today and December 1, 2009. • However, models indicate that several significant variables appear to be developing after December 1st that tend to precede severe cold outbreaks by about 5 days. • Additionally, some currently observed variables appear to have a significant link to outbreaks at a 10-20 day lead. • The probability for a severe cold outbreak between December 1st and December 25th is estimated to be greater than 50%. Process Patent Pending University of California San Diego ℗

  11. Scripps Severe Cold IndexWinter 2009/2010 Process Patent Pending University of California San Diego ℗

  12. Scripps Partnership for Hazards and Environmental Applied Research Executive Director Stephen Bennett StephenBennett@ucsd.edu 858-246-0065