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Gender and Conflict: General Introduction and case-study for Burundi World Bank Workshop on Gender and Conflict, June 10

Gender and Conflict: General Introduction and case-study for Burundi World Bank Workshop on Gender and Conflict, June 10, 2010. Philip Verwimp Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management Universit é Libre de Bruxelles. Objectives.

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Gender and Conflict: General Introduction and case-study for Burundi World Bank Workshop on Gender and Conflict, June 10

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  1. Gender and Conflict:General Introduction andcase-study for BurundiWorld Bank Workshop on Gender and Conflict, June 10, 2010 Philip Verwimp Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management Université Libre de Bruxelles

  2. Objectives • Study the impact of violent conflict on gender inequality • Focus on outcomes that have longer term effect, such as schooling, labor market participation, marriage and fertility • Not a study of the direct effects of violence, such as torture, kidnapping, rape • Sample of 6 countries with recent experience of violent conflict

  3. Main methods • Large scale household data • Difference-in-Differences analysis, use temporal and spatial variation in the extent of conflict to compare cohorts exposed to conflict with those not exposed in their area of residence • Interpret the findings taking account of the country-specific context of gender and conflict in each of the six sample countries.

  4. Status of the research • Today we present preliminary results • Final results towards the end of this year • Effect of conflict on gender is an empirical question Underlying question: how do we conceptualize a conflict shock ? Is it something similar to the better studied and understood economic shocks ? • We do not find the same effects in each country • Pre-existing gender inequalities as well as the type and duration of the conflict play and important role • Results also depend on how conflict is measured

  5. Intensity of Conflict in Sample Countries

  6. Case-Study on Burundi • 1993-2005 civil war • Ethnic, regional, political • 300.000 people killed • GDP per capita decreased by almost 40% • Civilian suffering • Gendered impact • Peace agreement • Consociational system of governance

  7. Spatial and temporal distribution of the civil war in Burundi

  8. Province level Poverty (>national mean) before the War and Duration of War (#years)

  9. Variables of interest and data set used • Independent: Exposure to conflict: number of years that a child is exposed to violent conflict during the age of 7-12 or 7-14 in her/his area of residence • Dependent: Completion of at least primary schooling (grade 6) • Surveys used - Burundi Household Priority Survey by the World Bank and ISTEEBU 1998-2007, 1.400 rural households in all but 3 provinces - Demographic and Health Survey (EDS, UNFPA, 2002) 5.000 rural households, all provinces, including displacement camps

  10. Exposure to Conflict during Primary School Age

  11. Exposure (ii)

  12. Primary School Completion by Conflict Area and Cohort

  13. Percentage females by cohorts and conflict, no-conflict areas

  14. Some caution • In Burundi the minority of educated citizens has been strongly targeted in massacres and genocidal violence • Violent conflict at least affects the human capital base of a country in two ways - those who finished school: intentionally attacked - those who are in school at the time of the conflict : lower school attainment • Survey we work with is by definition a sample of survivors • When we find effects : they will be underestimate of the true effect

  15. Long term trend in primary school completion

  16. Trend reversal by gender in younger cohorts

  17. Males only, by conflict, no-conflict area

  18. Females only, by conflict, no-conflict area

  19. Length of Exposure to Conflict and Primary School Completion

  20. EDS data set

  21. Length of Exposure and Number of Years of Schooling

  22. Primary Schooling, Conflict and Gender

  23. Variables in the estimation • 2 cohorts, 1977-1982, 1982-1987 • Dependent variable: completion of primary schooling • Regressors: - exposure to the conflict (number of years, during primary school age ) - male/female - interaction between exposure and gender • Control variables: - linear trend (age) or year of birth fixed effects - Household characteristics - province fixed effects • Robustness checks and channels of impact - other measures of exposure to violent conflict - other outcome variables

  24. Preliminary conclusions • Boys and girls exposed to violent conflict during school-age have a smaller chance to complete primary schooling in Burundi • The effect we measure, 30% less chance to complete for every additional year of conflict is an underestimate because • it is not the only devastating effect of conflict: educated adults run a higher risk to be killed • Because of that, our control group in the conflict affected area is biased towards lower educated adult • The effect is larger for boys which seems logic as they have more to loose, in particular boys from non-poor families • So exposure to conflict in Burundi seems not to work as an economic shock, because non-poor households cannot protect themselves from it. • Exposure to conflict (fighting) in the area of residence as well as its intensity and the frequency of displacement seems to be channels driving the result • Children from poor families: household characteristics !

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