Annual North Carolina & Virginia Hurricane Evacuation Coordination Meeting

1. Annual North Carolina & Virginia Hurricane Evacuation Coordination Meeting Chesapeake Convention Center June 2, 2011

2. Annual North Carolina & Virginia Hurricane Evacuation Coordination Meeting RCPG Phase I Evacuation Deliverables Review: • Hampton Roads Behavioral Analysis • HURREVAC Risk Profile Update for Virginia and Dare and Currituck Counties NC Bill Massey Dewberry

3. Annual North Carolina & Virginia Hurricane Evacuation Coordination Meeting Hampton Roads Behavioral Analysis

4. Annual North Carolina & Virginia Hurricane Evacuation Coordination Meeting • WHAT WAS DONE? • HOW WAS IT ACCOMPLISHED? • WHAT DID WE LEARN? • WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

5. What Was Done? • Conduct Telephone Sampling and Analysis of the Coastal Population to Develop Behavioral Tendencies and Trends • Provide Input Data for the Transportation Analysis Model • Provide Data to Local Emergency Managers to Assist with Hurricane Preparedness Planning • Previous HES and Post Storm Surveys for North Carolina Utilized for the Transportation Analysis

6. HOW WAS IT ACCOMPLISHED? • Evacuation Survey : MethodologyTo capture the knowledge, attitudes & intentions of a random sample of coastal Virginians in response to a catastrophic event such as a hurricane. • Questions developed and approved • Received GIS map of target regions and surge zones • Purchased random sample of phone numbers located in the area with latitude and longitude included for each • Examined Census block group data for population in each region • Located sample numbers that fit within each target region and zone • Total sample: 1,725, including 300 cell phone interviews • Completion rates (where a qualified person answered and was asked to participate): • 53% for landline phones • 34% for cell phones • Margin of Error: +/- 2.4%

7. Evacuation Survey:Sample Areas Included in Each Region

8. Evacuation Survey:Sample by Regions and Surge Zones

9. Evacuation Survey:Sample Location – Completed Interviews

10. Evacuation Survey: Sample Demographics • 81% live in single family dwellings; 3% in mobile homes • 83% own their dwelling • Age: 15% <40, 14% 40-49, 22% 50-59, 21% 60-69, 24%>70 • 31% someone in household 65 or over • Average time of residency in area: Median 22 years • 19% live alone, 41% - 2 people, 16% - 3, 14% - 4, 9% - 5 or more • 31% high school graduate or less, 22% some college, 27% college grad, 15% post-graduate • 70% white, 18% African American, 2% Hispanic • Income: 25% Under $30K; 21% $30-50K; 26% 50-80K; 27% over $80,000 • 60% female

11. (What did we learn?) Evacuation Survey Results Q3. Is your home located in an area where you would have to evacuate for storm surge in a hurricane, or are you not sure if it is? • Most in Cat 1 zone are aware of this • Yet 18% located in Cat 1 are not aware • Significant confusion in other zones

12. Evacuation Survey Results Q2. To what extent are you concerned about the threat of a hurricane?Q6. How likely is it that you home would ever be serious damaged or destroyed by the winds of a hurricane?Q7. How likely do you think it is that your home would ever be flooded as a result or a hurricane or storm? About 1/3 are not very concerned about wind damage and 2/3 are not concerned about their home being flooded Of the total sample about 1/4 are very concerned and another 1/2 are somewhat concerned Some differences related to women, elderly and households with children being more likely to be concerned

13. Evacuation Survey Results Q2. To what extent are you concerned about the threat of a hurricane?Q6. How likely is it that you home would ever be serious damaged or destroyed by the winds of a hurricane? Concerns about hurricanes and likelihood of wind damage do not tend to vary by region

14. Evacuation Survey Results Q7. How likely do you think it is that your home would ever be flooded as a result or a hurricane or storm • Belief of flood risk varies significant by region • Those living on the Eastern Shore are more likely to be concerned about flooding • Those living in the Northern Neck/Middle Peninsula appear to be the least concerned about flooding

15. Evacuation Survey Results Q6. How likely is it that you home would ever be serious damaged or destroyed by the winds of a hurricane?Q7. How likely do you think it is that your home would ever be flooded as a result or a hurricane or storm? Significant relationship between risk beliefs regarding wind and flooding, and surge zone location – but still considerable confusion

16. Evacuation Survey Results Q.14. If government officials ordered an evacuation of your area, how likely is it that you would leave? Q15. If an evacuation was recommended but not ordered, how likely is it that you would leave? • High compliance to orders • Much less if recommended • Households with children more likely than other households to leave if ordered. • Women more likely to leave whether ordered or recommended. • No Significant Differences related to region or surge zone Note: Only 20% have ever evacuated

17. Q4. If a Category 3 or above hurricane, a major hurricane, was threatening your community, how likely is it that you would leave your home? Q5. What about a Category 1 or 2, a less serious hurricane, how likely is it that you would leave your home? • Women and households with children were more likely to evacuate for major storm and elderly were less likely than others • No significant differences related to household composition for less serious hurricane

18. Q4. If a Category 3 or above hurricane, a major hurricane, was threatening your community, how likely is it that you would leave your home? Q5. What about a Category 1 or 2, a less serious hurricane, how likely is it that you would leave your home? • Dramatic difference between major and less serious hurricane. • Region appears to make a difference in evacuation intent only for major hurricane.

19. Q4. If a Category 3 or above hurricane, a major hurricane, was threatening your community, how likely is it that you would leave your home? Q5. What about a Category 1 or 2, a less serious hurricane, how likely is it that you would leave your home? • Surge zone significantly associated with evacuation decision – for both major and less serious hurricanes • Potential over-evacuation for Cat 3 or higher hurricane by those in no-surge regions.

20. Evacuation Likelihood According to Household Location

21. Evacuation Very Likely for Major Hurricane

22. Evacuation Somewhat Likely for Major Hurricane

23. Evacuation Not Very Likely for Major Hurricane

24. Evacuation Survey Results Q18. If you had to evacuate for any reason such as for a fire, chemical spill, hurricane, where would you MOST likely go? • Eastern Shore more likely to go to public shelter (18%) • Renters more likely to go to public shelter (18%) • Elderly least likely to stay with friends/family in area; more likely to go to a hotel • .025% would require special needs shelter

25. Evacuation Survey: Need for Special Medical Shelter and/or Transportation Assistance

26. Evacuation Survey: Need for Special Medical Shelter and/or Transportation Assistance

27. Evacuation Survey Results Q34. If you had to evacuate, how far away would you likely go?

28. Evacuation Survey Results Intended Destination and Distance Expect to Travel

29. Evacuation Survey Results Q31. If you have a family pet or pets, what would you do with them if you had to evacuate? • About half have pets. • Nearly all would take them when they evacuated.

30. Evacuation Survey Results Q23. How many people in your household would leave? • Most households would have one or two people leaving • More singles on Eastern Shore. • More large families in South Side. • 6% would leave someone at home.

31. Evacuation Survey Results Q26. How many cars would your household take in the evacuation? • Most households would take one vehicle • 7% would also take some other kind of vehicle • .023% indicated a need for public transportation • Average about 1.3 cars per household

32. Evacuation Survey Results Q8. Suppose you had to evacuate for a hurricane that was forecast to hit your area in three days from now, on which day do you realistically think you would be able to leave? • Those located on the South Side and the Peninsula would leave earlier • Cat 1 surge zone likely to leave later! • No important differences related to household composition.

33. Evacuation Survey Results • Most would expect to return within a few days

34. What Does It Mean?Evacuation Survey Summary • Most have no hurricane experience • About ¾ of total population are very or somewhat concerned • More concerned about flooding than wind • Except for those in Cat 1 surge zone, vast majority don’t know whether they live in an evacuation/surge zone • About ⅓ of those located in Cat 1 surge zones believe it is unlikely that their home would flood

35. Evacuation Survey Summary • Households with children more likely to evacuate • Women more likely to believe risk and want to evacuate • Households with elderly somewhat less likely to evacuate • High compliance with evacuation ORDER indicated • An important finding is that most who live in Cat 1 or 2 evacuation zone said they would not leave for a Cat 1 or 2 storm. Evacuation Intent

36. Evacuation Survey Results • Would take average of 1.3 cars per household • Most pet owners would take them • Most would stay with family or friends • Only 10% would expect go to a public shelter • Those needing special medical shelter seems too low (.025%) • Very few would need transportation assistance (.023%) • Most would travel 50 miles or more • Between ¼ and ⅓ would not leave until last day • Most expect to return within a few days

37. Evacuation Survey:Actions Implied From the Findings Negative: High potential for over-evacuation, especially among those who likely could shelter in place Potential for under-evacuation among those who are at risk to surge Positive: Relatively stable, educated population with considerable level of concern should be receptive to educational campaigns and emergency warning messages

38. Evacuation Survey Results THANK YOU!! ARE THERE ANY QUESTIONS???