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A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment

A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment

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A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment

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  1. A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment Ronald P. LouiWashington UniversitySt. LouisCAEPIA 2003

  2. A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and PunishmentPreliminary Remarks CAEPIA 2003

  3. Preliminary Remarks 1985-2000+ Logic of Argument 1987 - Defeat among Arguments 1988 - Workshop on Defeasibility 1989 - G. Simari's thesis 1991 - NATHAN in C 1992 - H. Prakken's thesis 1993 (1997) - Process & Policy 1993 - G. Vreeswijk's thesis 1993 - T. Gordon's thesis 1995 - B. Verheij's thesis 1997 - A. Lodder's thesis 2000 - ACM Computing Surveys A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  4. Preliminary Remarks 1990-2000+ Logic of Arguments & Cases 1991 - LMNOP in LISP 1992 - Argument Game 1993 - Policies and Precedents 1995 - Rationales 1997 - Room5 in GAWK/CGI 1998 - Prakken-Sartor 1999 - Bench-Capon 2003 - Johnston-Governatori A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  5. A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  6. Preliminary Remarks "Why does there have to be a winner? Why can't you work on negotiation instead of argument?" -- Prof. Anne Johnstone* *"University of Maine assistant professor of computer science Anne Johnstone died of complications resulting from lung cancer on February 28, 1995. After completing her PhD [in Artificial Intelligence at the University of Edinburgh approx. 1990], Anne took a position as senior research associate in the computer science department at Washington University in St. Louis, and while there established a successful research program in natural language processing, funded by Southwestern Bell Technology Resources." (http://www.umcs.maine.edu/~larry/csdept/johnstone.html) **This invited talk is dedicated to the memory of my faculty colleague. A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  7. Preliminary Remarks Argument and Negotiation 1985-87 - K. Sycara's thesis 1993 - G. Ferguson's thesis 1994 - Computational Dialectics Workshop 1995 - Mark Foltz's (WU/MIT) u. thesis 1996 - Parsons-Jennings 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis 1998-2001 - Jennings-Parsons-Noriega, Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Parsons-Noriega-Sierra, Parsons-Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Faratin-Lomuscio-Parsons-Wooldridge-Sierra, etc. Main Idea: One may argue for or against a proposal (a proposed settlement). A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  8. Preliminary Remarks Argument and Negotiation 1985-87 - K. Sycara's thesis case-based problem-solving for labor-management disputes = argument 1993 - G. Ferguson's thesis 1994 - Computational Dialectics Workshop 1995 - Mark Foltz's (WU/MIT) u. thesis 1996 - Parsons-Jennings 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis 1998-2001 - Jennings-Parsons-Noriega, Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Parsons-Noriega-Sierra, Parsons-Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Faratin-Lomuscio-Parsons-Wooldridge-Sierra, etc. Main Idea: One may argue for or against a proposal (a proposed settlement). A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  9. Preliminary Remarks Argument and Negotiation 1985-87 - K. Sycara's thesis 1993 - G. Ferguson's thesis "mixed initiative" planning = mixture of argument & negotiation 1994 - Computational Dialectics Workshop 1995 - Mark Foltz's (WU/MIT) u. thesis 1996 - Parsons-Jennings 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis 1998-2001 - Jennings-Parsons-Noriega, Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Parsons-Noriega-Sierra, Parsons-Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Faratin-Lomuscio-Parsons-Wooldridge-Sierra, etc. Main Idea: One may argue for or against a proposal (a proposed settlement). A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  10. Preliminary Remarks Argument and Negotiation 1985-87 - K. Sycara's thesis 1993 - G. Ferguson's thesis 1994 - Computational Dialectics Workshop notation & protocol for proposal, threat, inform, justify, etc. as speech acts 1995 - Mark Foltz's (WU/MIT) u. thesis 1996 - Parsons-Jennings 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis 1998-2001 - Jennings-Parsons-Noriega, Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Parsons-Noriega-Sierra, Parsons-Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Faratin-Lomuscio-Parsons-Wooldridge-Sierra, etc. Main Idea: One may argue for or against a proposal (a proposed settlement). A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  11. Preliminary Remarks Argument and Negotiation 1985-87 - K. Sycara's thesis 1993 - G. Ferguson's thesis 1994 - Computational Dialectics Workshop 1995 - Mark Foltz's (WU/MIT) u. thesis 1. Cooperative protocol level: reciprocal progress 2. Cooperative protocol level: immediate response 3. Cooperative protocol level: arguing for proposals 4. Uncooperative protocol level: using threats 1996 - Parsons-Jennings 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis 1998-2001 - Jennings-Parsons-Noriega, Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Parsons-Noriega-Sierra, Parsons-Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Faratin-Lomuscio-Parsons-Wooldridge-Sierra, etc. Main Idea: One may argue for or against a proposal (a proposed settlement). A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  12. Preliminary Remarks Argument and Negotiation 1985-87 - K. Sycara's thesis 1993 - G. Ferguson's thesis 1994 - Computational Dialectics Workshop 1995 - Mark Foltz's (WU/MIT) u. thesis 1996 - Parsons-Jennings uses Fox's argument logic for formalizing arguments about proposals 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis 1998-2001 - Jennings-Parsons-Noriega, Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Parsons-Noriega-Sierra, Parsons-Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Faratin-Lomuscio-Parsons-Wooldridge-Sierra, etc. Main Idea: One may argue for or against a proposal (a proposed settlement). A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  13. Preliminary Remarks Argument and Negotiation 1985-87 - K. Sycara's thesis 1993 - G. Ferguson's thesis 1994 - Computational Dialectics Workshop 1995 - Mark Foltz's (WU/MIT) u. thesis 1996 - Parsons-Jennings 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis list of speech acts in negotiation dialogue, including:o change of focuso request for proposalo "settlement" as a linguistic object (a contract) 1998-2001 - Jennings-Parsons-Noriega, Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Parsons-Noriega-Sierra, Parsons-Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Faratin-Lomuscio-Parsons-Wooldridge-Sierra, etc. Main Idea: One may argue for or against a proposal (a proposed settlement). A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  14. Preliminary Remarks Argument and Negotiation 1985-87 - K. Sycara's thesis 1993 - G. Ferguson's thesis 1994 - Computational Dialectics Workshop 1995 - Mark Foltz's (WU/MIT) u. thesis 1996 - Parsons-Jennings 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis 1998-2001 - Jennings-Parsons-Noriega, Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Parsons-Noriega-Sierra, Parsons-Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Faratin-Lomuscio-Parsons-Wooldridge-Sierra, etc. Main Idea: One may argue for or against a proposal (a proposed settlement). A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  15. Preliminary Remarks Argument and Negotiation 1985-87 - K. Sycara's thesis 1993 - G. Ferguson's thesis 1994 - Computational Dialectics Workshop 1995 - Mark Foltz's (WU/MIT) u. thesis 1996 - Parsons-Jennings 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis 1998-2001 - Jennings-Parsons-Noriega, Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Parsons-Noriega-Sierra, Parsons-Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Faratin-Lomuscio-Parsons-Wooldridge-Sierra, etc. Main Idea: One may argue for or against a proposal (a proposed settlement). A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  16. Preliminary Remarks Argument and Negotiation 1970's - R. Fisher-(Ury-Patton) "principled negotiation" … 1998-2001 - Jennings-Parsons-Noriega, Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Parsons-Noriega-Sierra, Parsons-Sierra-Jennings, Jennings-Faratin-Lomuscio-Parsons-Wooldridge-Sierra, etc. UN-ANSWERED QUESTION: What cost is incurred by the party to a negotiation who refuses the consequences of rational argument? A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  17. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation 1991 - pre-Lesser Sandholm 1992-93 - S. Lander's thesis 1993 - CMU talk 1994 - Strategic directions in AI (ACM Computing Surveys) 1996 - T. Sandholm's thesis 1996 - Kay Hashimoto (Harvard/FJC) 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  18. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation 1991 - pre-Lesser Sandholm "strategy for reducing overall computation costs" by trading tasks, TSP's 1992-93 - S. Lander's thesis 1993 - CMU talk 1994 - Strategic directions in AI (ACM Computing Surveys) 1996 - T. Sandholm's thesis 1996 - Kay Hashimoto (Harvard/FJC) 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  19. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation 1991 - pre-Lesser Sandholm 1992-93 - S. Lander's thesis "uses conflict as a source of control information for directing search" 1993 - CMU talk 1994 - Strategic directions in AI (ACM Computing Surveys) 1996 - T. Sandholm's thesis 1996 - Kay Hashimoto (Harvard/FJC) 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  20. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation 1991 - pre-Lesser Sandholm 1992-93 - S. Lander's thesis 1993 - CMU talk consider the strategic form payoffs to be heuristic! 1994 - Strategic directions in AI (ACM Computing Surveys) 1996 - T. Sandholm's thesis 1996 - Kay Hashimoto (Harvard/FJC) 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  21. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation 1991 - pre-Lesser Sandholm 1992-93 - S. Lander's thesis 1993 - CMU talk 1994 - Strategic directions in AI (ACM Computing Surveys) "Instead of starting with a matrix of payoffs to each player … introduce a structure that can be altered through computation" 1996 - T. Sandholm's thesis 1996 - Kay Hashimoto (Harvard/FJC) 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  22. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation 1991 - pre-Lesser Sandholm 1992-93 - S. Lander's thesis 1993 - CMU talk 1994 - Strategic directions in AI (ACM Computing Surveys) 1996 - T. Sandholm's thesis Negotiation Among Self-Interested Computationally Limited Agents 1996 - Kay Hashimoto (Harvard/FJC) 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  23. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation 1991 - pre-Lesser Sandholm 1992-93 - S. Lander's thesis 1993 - CMU talk 1994 - Strategic directions in AI (ACM Computing Surveys) 1996 - T. Sandholm's thesis 1996 - Kay Hashimoto (Harvard/FJC) each agent solves non-linear constrained optimization, asks "why not", responds with list of binding constraints 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  24. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation 1991 - pre-Lesser Sandholm 1992-93 - S. Lander's thesis 1993 - CMU talk 1994 - Strategic directions in AI (ACM Computing Surveys) 1996 - T. Sandholm's thesis 1996 - Kay Hashimoto (Harvard/FJC) 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis ocan search: your problem OR partner's problem;o the simplest formal model of utility-revision / joint problem-solving Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  25. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation 1991 - pre-Lesser Sandholm 1992 - K. Decker's thesis, Sandholm-Lesser 1994 - Strategic directions in AI / ACM Computing Surveys 1996 - T. Sandholm's thesis 1997 - Diana Moore's (WU/NSA/EnGarde) u. thesis 1997 - Kay Hashimoto (Harvard/FJC). Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  26. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation OBSERVATION: If anytime search is focused on proposalsthen agreement is easier to achieve! Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  27. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation OBSERVATION: If anytime search is focused on proposalsthen agreement is easier to achieve! Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  28. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation OBSERVATION: If anytime search is focused on proposalsthen agreement is easier to achieve! Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. proposed A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  29. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation OBSERVATION: If anytime search is focused on proposalsthen agreement is easier to achieve! Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. proposed …search… A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  30. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation OBSERVATION: If anytime search is focused on proposalsthen agreement is easier to achieve! Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. proposed …search… …search… A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  31. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation OBSERVATION: If anytime search is focused on proposalsthen agreement is easier to achieve! Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. proposed …search… …search… …search… A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  32. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation OBSERVATION: If anytime search is focused on proposalsthen agreement is easier to achieve! Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. proposed …search… …search… …search… …search… A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  33. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation OBSERVATION: If anytime search is focused on proposalsthen agreement is easier to achieve! Main Idea: Payoffs (in strategic form) are not fixed, but can change with search. proposed …search… …search… …search… …search… …search… accepted A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  34. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation OBSERVATION: If anytime search is focused on proposalsthen agreement is easier to achieve! UN-ANSWERED QUESTION: Is it rational to accept a proposalif its heuristic valuation looks goodJUST BECAUSEmore time was spent searching to make it look good? A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  35. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation OBSERVATION: If anytime search is focused on proposalsthen agreement is easier to achieve! UN-ANSWERED QUESTION: Is it rational to accept a proposalif its heuristic valuation looks goodJUST BECAUSEmore time was spent searching to make it look good? Sandholm: Look for deliberation equilibria! A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  36. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation Sandholm: Look for deliberation equilibria! Loui: Equilibrium is a silly idea! Negotiation is a process. How about looking at trajectories? A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

  37. Preliminary Remarks Search and Negotiation 1997 - Anne Jump (Harvard) Negotiation game A New Model of Negotiation Based on Pessimism and Punishment – R. P. Loui

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