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Drought Monitor Primer

Drought Monitor Primer. Mark Svoboda, Climatologist Monitoring Program Area Leader, National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA NIDIS ACF Workshop, Albany, Georgia November 18, 2010. The Importance of Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWS).

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Drought Monitor Primer

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  1. Drought Monitor Primer Mark Svoboda, Climatologist Monitoring Program Area Leader, National Drought Mitigation Center University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA NIDIS ACF Workshop, Albany, Georgia November 18, 2010

  2. The Importance of Drought Early Warning Systems (DEWS) • Allows for early drought detection • Improves response (proactive) • Data and tools for decision support • “Triggers” actions within a drought plan • A critical mitigation action • Foundation of a drought plan

  3. Components of a Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) • Monitoring AND Forecasting • Access to timely data • Synthesis/analysis of data used to “trigger” set actions within a drought plan • Tools for decision makers • Efficient dissemination/communication (WWW, media, extension, etc.) • Drought risk planning • Education and Awareness

  4. The Drought Monitor Concept • A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map • “Convergence of evidence” approach • Trying to capture these characteristics: • the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity) • spatial extent • probability of occurrence • Impacts • Rates drought intensity by percentile ranks

  5. Objectives • “Fujita-like”scale • NOT a forecast! • NOT a drought declaration! • Identify impacts (A, H) • Assessment of current conditions • Incorporate local expertinput • Be as objective as possible

  6. U.S. Drought Monitor Map Drought Intensity Categories D0 Abnormally Dry (30%tile) D1 Drought – Moderate (20%tile) D2 Drought – Severe (10%tile) D3 Drought – Extreme (5%tile) D4 Drought – Exceptional (2%tile)

  7. Essential Tools!

  8. U.S. Drought Monitor • Integrates Key • Drought Indicators: • - Palmer Drought Index • - SPI • - KBDI • Modeled Soil Moisture • - 7-Day Avg. Streamflow • - Precipitation Anomalies • Growing Season: • - Crop Moisture Index • - Sat. Veg. Health Index • Soil Moisture • Mesonet data • In The West: • - SWSI • - Reservoir levels • Snowpack (SNOTEL) • SWE • Streamflow • Created in ArcGIS

  9. The Importance of Local Expert Input • The U.S. Drought Monitor Team Relies on Field Observation Feedback from the Local Experts for Impacts Information & “Ground Truth” • Listserver (270 Participants: 2/3 Federal, 1/3 State/Univ.) Local NWS & USDA/NRCS Offices State Climate Offices State Drought Task Forces Regional Climate Centers

  10. The Drought Monitor is Widely Used • Policy: Farm Bill/IRS/USDA/NWS DGT/State drought plan triggers • ~3.5M+ page views and ~2M+ visitors/year • Media: The Weather Channel/USA Today and all major newspapers/Internet /radio/ Nightly Network News/CNN/NPR/etc. • Presidential/Congressional/Governor briefings • NIDISportal/portlet • A model of interagency collaboration

  11. ACF DEWS:Where to from here? • Input into DM from GA SCO • Input into DM from FL Team (SCO Coordinates) • Input into DM from AL MAG/DIG (SCO Coordinates) • Monitoring of impacts is virtually non-existent • Many indicators/indices/models don’t reflect reality in various regions, or for various season(s)……or for both! • Early warning/monitoring just one key: THENWHAT? Need linkages to risk/vulnerability assessment and planning for adaptation • NIDIS Portal/Engaging Preparedness Community

  12. http://www.drought.unl.edu/plan/DRC.htm

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