Campaigns and Elections: Maximizing Voter Participation and Overcoming Obstacles

1. Chapter 8

2. Campaigns and Elections • Universal Suffrage • Turnout • Voter’s Perspective • Campaigning • Elections • Strategies - Finance and Incumbency

3. Voting Rights • Obstacles • States establish the rules • White, male, 21 years old, land owner • Poll tax, literacy tests, white only primaries • The Constitution (Suffrage Amendments) 15th Amendment - eliminated race (almost) 19th Amendment - eliminated gender 23rd Amendment – allowed D.C. in Pres Election 24th Amendment - eliminated poll tax 26th Amendment - lowers age to 18 • Legislation — Voting Rights Act of 1965 - eliminated literacy test type limitations intent on diluting the vote

4. Voter Turnout • Low voter turnout — 50 percent in presidential elections — 40 percent in congressional midterm elections — 20 percent in state and local elections — 5 percent in state primaries • Turnout much higher in many European countries

5. Comparative Voter Turnout

6. Socioeconomic Status • Education is the strongest, most important predictor • the higher the education level the more likely to vote • Income - the higher the income the greater the participation • Age - 18 to 24 year olds lowest group to participate • Ethnicity - White 68%, African American 66%, Hispanic 36%

7. Impact of Social Setting • Depends on three elements: • Resources - Money and Time • Civic engagement - how you feel about the candidates, issues and process • Candidates character • Party affiliation • Issues of least importance • Recruitment • Changing generations

9. 1.52 2.36 25.40 25.42 16.46 Voter Participation by Age Group

10. Presidential Election versus Midterm Elections

11. Factors Determining How Voters Decide • Incumbency • Partisan Loyalty • Issues • Candidate Characteristics

12. Incumbency • Public official running for a seat already occupying. • House 98% incumbents win • Senate 80 - 90% incumbents win • Safe seats - House versus Senate • Term limits

13. PAC Contributions to Congressional Candidates, 1974 to 1998

14. Partisan Loyalty • Party loyalty may be the best predictor of how an individual will vote. • Partisan loyalties rarely allow a voter to cast a ballot for an opposing candidate.

15. Clinton 43%, Bush 38%, Perot 19% Party Identification and Voting Behavior in the 1996 Presidential Election

16. 11 0 89 48 1 49 93 0 6 Kerry

17. Issues • Issues, such as the state of the economy, are also important. • But it is often difficult to get voters to restate a candidate’s position on a particular issue • Usually the least important

18. Candidate Characteristics • Race, religion, gender, and physical characteristics are also important. • John F. Kennedy had to overcome a resistance to voting for a Catholic. • Background, honesty, intelligence, experience

19. Campaigns and Elections • Nominating Candidates • Election Campaigns • Money and Politics • Electing the Candidates • Campaign Finance Reform

20. Presidential Elections • Who wants to be President? • How is the president elected? • What factors have the greatest impact on a general election campaign?

21. Election Campaigns • Advisers • Polling • The Elections

22. A Typical Presidential Campaign Organization

23. Advisers and Consultants • Candidates utilize political advisors to manage their campaigns. • Develop campaign strategies, conduct polls and coordinate the media events. • James Carville and Dick Morris are some of the best-known campaign strategists.

24. Campaigning Techniques • Polling • Broadcast Media • spot ads • town meetings • infomercials • debates • Phone Banks • Direct Mail • Public Relations • Internet

25. Polling • Conducting political polls is essential for a successful campaign. • Must ascertain the will of the people and tailor a message that appeals to the voters • Benchmark Poll • Tracking Poll • Rolling Polls • Focus Groups

26. Money and Politics • $500,000 for a House seat • $5,000,000 for a Senate seat • $50 - 100,000,000 for President

27. Sources of Campaign Funds • The Federal Election Commission monitors campaign fundraising. • Sources of funds include – “hard money” — individuals - 50% — political action committees (PAC) - 25% — the candidate - 25% — parties and “soft money”, — public funding. • Limits - individual $2300, group $5000 • Increased in 2003 to $2000 + inflation factor from $1000

28. Money and Politics • Winners out spend losers 2 to 1 • 10 months of face to face equals 2 days of large state wide TV coverage • It’s expensive for a one point increase • 15 - 75% $15,000 per percentage point • 76 - 100% $25,000 per point

29. PACs Give Postelection Donations to Winners

30. Campaign Finance Reform • Both parties have argued that reforms should be made to the campaign finance system. • Incumbents are reluctant to give up the financial advantage. • Each party fears that reform would benefit the other side • Democrats would not give up PAC contributions • Republican would give up PAC contributions • Future soft money and 527s in campaign funding and advocacy issues.

31. Soft Money Raised by Political Parties, 1992 to 1998

32. Electoral Districts • Drawn by the state legislatures following reapportionment • Political gerrymandering is well accepted. • Racial gerrymandering was declared to be unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court.

33. Newest Map 2007

34. Newest Map 2007

35. The Electoral Process • Historically the party had meeting to negotiate candidate positions • Today Presidential hopefuls must compete in a series of primaries and caucuses or conventions to win delegates at the national convention. • The winner of the primary season will receive the party’s nomination.

36. The Primaries • A direct primary is an election held within a party to select a nominee for a general election. • Must defeat party contenders to win a spot on the general election ballot • Requires winning the approval of the party activists

37. Types of Primaries • Primary elections • Closed • Open • Blanket • Caucus • Runoff elections

38. National Party Conventions • Selects the party’s candidate for president. • Party used the caucus in early years. • Has become more democratic since the 1960s. • Winner know usually well in advance. • Some feel it’s now a giant infomercial. • Established future rules. • Writes party platform.

39. The Criteria for Winning • Majority — Southern primaries • Plurality — General election • Proportional Representation — European elections

40. Types of Elections • General election - regularly scheduled national elections held in even numbered years on the first Tuesday in November. • Presidential • Mid Term • Special election - state and/or local election necessary before next general election.

41. The Ballot • Prior to 1890 - Controlled by party • Utilizes a neutral ballot that contains the candidates for all the eligible parties • Party-column versus office-block ballot • Permits split-ticket and straight-ticket voting • Coattail effect possible with popular candidate

42. The Electoral College • Electors are chosen by each state to meet after the popular election to cast ballots for the president and vice president. • Electors equal to the number of House and Senate members. • Need 270 of 538 to win. • Possible to win popular vote and lose election.

43. 31 34 State Electoral Votes

44. The General Election • The general presidential election contest is about winning 270 electoral college votes. • This forces the candidates to focus on the states with large delegations (California, Texas, etc.). • Organizationally driven • Media driven

45. The 2000 Election • The 2000 election was mired in controversy, including — media confusion regarding the projected winner of key states, — the mandated recount of the Florida popular vote, — confusion in the Florida courts regarding extent of manual recounts, — U.S. Supreme Court decision rejecting recounts. • Bush was declared the winner with a 271 to 267 vote in the electoral college. • 2004