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James Clark james.clark@noaa Ocean Prediction Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP

NOAA Satellite Proving Ground Evaluations and Activities at the Ocean Prediction Center. James Clark james.clark@noaa.gov Ocean Prediction Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP GOES-R/JPSS PG/User Readiness Meeting 2 - 6 June 2014. North Atlantic Radiofax Graphics. North Pacific Radiofax Graphics.

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James Clark james.clark@noaa Ocean Prediction Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP

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  1. NOAA Satellite Proving Ground Evaluations and Activities at the Ocean Prediction Center James Clark james.clark@noaa.gov Ocean Prediction Center NOAA/NWS/NCEP GOES-R/JPSS PG/User Readiness Meeting 2 - 6 June 2014

  2. North Atlantic Radiofax Graphics

  3. North Pacific Radiofax Graphics

  4. OPC – Satellite Proving Ground Involvement • Satellite Proving Ground Participant since 2011 • Michael Folmer – Satellite Liaison • Training, Demonstration, Case Studies, Archiving, Dataflow, Interaction with Forecasters

  5. OPC – Satellite Proving Ground Involvement GOES-R/JPSS Products RGB Airmass AIRS Total Column Ozone and Ozone Anomalies NSSL WRF-simulated ABI Overshooting Top Detection (OTD) Cloud Top Cooling (CTC) Lightning Strike Density Product Fog/Low Stratus Product Hybrid (Geo/Leo) Imagery

  6. OPC Science Priorities • Improved prediction of explosive extratropical cyclogenesis • RGB Airmass • Improved prediction of hazardous mesoscale conditions especially in vicinity of the Gulf Stream • Lightning Strike Density Product • Cloud Top Cooling

  7. Training Experiences • NCO Dataflow • Incorporate into NMAP (help from NASA Sport) • Formal/Informal • Satellite Liaison Blog • Michael Folmer’s proximity to OPC ops floor • Collaborated with Scott Rudlosky and Dustin Shea (Univ of Maryland) • Half to 2/3 of forecasters load RGB Airmass product for Atlc surface analysis and short term high seas forecast

  8. Training Experiences (cont.) • Validation/Verification difficult over oceans • Frequent follow up by Michael Folmer when significant events are forecast • Blogs effective for forecasters given shifts

  9. MODIS RGB Airmass Courtesy NASA Sport

  10. OPC High Seas/Offshore AOR Warnings GALE STORM HURRICANE FORCE 2013/2014 Winter 47 Hurricane Force Cyclones

  11. OPC High Seas/Offshore AOR 2013/2014 Winter 27 Hurricane Force Cyclones Warnings GALE STORM HURRICANE FORCE

  12. RGB Airmass Animations https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUcqH10mDVo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FiUAZD6xsc

  13. Frontal Analysis Courtesy NASA Sport

  14. Next Steps… • Quantify Stratospheric Intrusions • O3 • Correlation with RGB Airmass product? • Global models do not capture rapid deepening rates of extreme oceanic cyclones • Only scatterometer or coarse resolution satellite signature to determine when cyclones reach hurricane force

  15. OPC Science Priorities • Improved prediction of explosive extratropical cyclogenesis • RGB Airmass • Improved prediction of hazardous mesoscale conditions especially in vicinity of the Gulf Stream • Lightning Strike Density Product • Cloud Top Cooling

  16. Atlantic Offshore Zones

  17. Atlantic Offshore Zones

  18. Back to Annapolis afterNewport to Bermuda Sailboat Race

  19. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-qSyBthSzg

  20. Challenges Nowcasting/Forecast Offshore Convection • Limitations of radar ~ 40 – 50 nm offshore • Verification • Compare Marine Lightning Density/Overshooting Top to that over land • Projects with Univ of Maryland and USCG interns

  21. Next steps… • More research/case studies • Lightning Density to better diagnose diurnal pattern of convection over Gulf Stream • Projects with Univ of Maryland and USCG interns – shallow convection • Integrate GOES-R convective products with high resolution model data (RAP) and SREF based tstm probabilities to develop polygon (watch?) areas offshore • Allow some lead time • OPC web page

  22. 2014 Satellite Proving Ground Demonstration Lightning Density Overshooting Top Detection Convective Initiation NearCast Model Fog/Low Stratus Hybrid Imagery

  23. Thank you! Questions/Comments/Discussion james.clark@noaa.gov Acknowledgements Michael Folmer, Joe Sienkiewicz, Tony Siebers, Tim Collins, James Kells

  24. NOAA Ship Gordon Gunter

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