NOAA’ Climate Prediction Center International Desks

1. NOAA’ Climate Prediction Center International Desks Wassila M. Thiaw Team Leader

2. CPC Mission We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy. • National temperature and precipitation outlooks • Focus:short term climate • Forecasts in collaboration with other NCEP Centersand institutions • Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of Products Temperature Outlook

3. CPC’s International Decision Support Systems Goals: • To provide timely, reliable, accurate, and relevant climate information that developing countries can to make informed decisions. Approach: • Develop collaborative partnerships to identify specific climate information needs and enhance climate products • Build capacity through improved understanding and more realistic prediction of the climate system

4. Background • African Desk established in 1994 following the South American Desk in 1989 and the Caribbean Desk in 1993. The NCEP International Desks are part of the US contribution to the WMO Voluntary Cooperation Program (VCP) • Initial Objective of the African Desk: To support capacity building in climate prediction, monitoring, and assessments at National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in Africa • Motivation: Recurrent and severe droughts in Africa in the 70s through the 90s caused demand for water for human and agricultural use to exceed reliable supply • African Desk expanded to include project support for USAID FFP and OFDA, and the recently established Monsoon Desk • Monsoon Training Desk established in 2010

5. Why is Africa Relevant? Hurricane Bill 8/18/2009 • AWD formed and developed in West Africa, August 11 • NHC “invest area” off coastal Guinea and Senegal, August 12 • Tropical Storm Bill August 15 • Major Hurricane Bill August 17

6. Why Africa is Relevant? The Madden Julian Oscillation Spring 2005 MJO Event

7. NOAA’ Climate Prediction Center (CPC) International Desks Web Sitehttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_desk/cpc_intl/ • High Impact Weather • Extended range and long range outlooks • Hazards Outlooks • Monsoon Monitoring • Professional Development Training

8. Quantitative Precipitation Forecast – Probability of Exceedance • Multi-model ensemble: • ECMWF • NCEP GFS and GEFS • UKMO • Model diagnostics • Expert interpretation and guidance • Dissemination

9. CPC Global Tropics Hazards Outlooks

10. Seasonal to Interannual Climate Predictions NCEP CFS V2 – 20 member ensemble forecasts for DJF 2011-12

11. ENSO Rainfall Composites DJF Season Warm ENSO DJF Season Cold ENSO

12. ENSO Rainfall Composites JAS Season Warm ENSO JAS Season Cold ENSO

13. Global to Regional Climate Information for Africa Rainfall Forecasts for Sep-Nov 2011 April Initial Conditions Feeds into Regional Climate Outlook Forums

14. Seasonal Rainfall Guidance Combination of CCA and CFS V2 Forecasts

15. Seasonal Rainfall Guidance

16. Regional Climate Outlook Forums GHA Consensus Climate Outlook September - December 2011 • Mechanism to bring together climate experts to produce regional climate outlooks • Outreach to develop effective communications strategies • Representative users to identify needs and formulate strategies • Capacity building Courtesy: ICPAC Nairobi, Kenya

17. Operational Climate Monitoring Rainfall Anomaly Jul – Dec 2010 • High resolution Satellite imagery • used to derive rainfall estimates • Departures from average are • computed to monitor the evolution • of seasonal rainfall • Information used to assess impacts • on agriculture and water resources

18. Operational Climate Monitoring Vegetation Health Index • Vegetation response to • rainfall deficits • Assess state of the crops

19. Support to USAID’s Food Security Planning Weekly Climate Risk Bulletins • Objective: Support USAID/Food for Peace • Facilitate decision making on issues related to food security. • Enable USAID for other risk management strategies, such as humanitarian relief efforts

20. Monitoring Drought

21. Monitoring Drought

22. Monitoring Drought

25. Summary Operational Products for Africa

26. South Asia Domain

27. New Opportunities: Climate and Health Meningitis Incidence Rate in logarithmic form - Case of Burkina Faso Base Period: 1968-2005 Yaka et al., 2008

28. New Opportunities: Climate and Health Climate and water borne Diseases Cholera Cholera Incidence Precipitation Yaka et al., 2008

29. CPC International Training Desk • Provide professional development training to meteorologists in Africa and other parts of the world • Began with the African Desk: Initially focused on climate predictions, assessments, and monitoring • Expanded in 2006 to focus on short range weather forecasting as well in support of the WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) • Desk provides an opportunity to issue seamless guidance to African NMHSs from weather to climate • Monsoon Training Desk established in 2010

30. African Training Desk Residency Training Coverage As of November 2011 • Established in 1994 as part of DOS capacity building program • Status: Hosted 117 visiting scientists from 37 African countries, Thailand and Panama, since 1995.

31. African Weather Desk Curriculum • Use and interpretation of NWP • Access COMET NWP Distance Learning Training • Increasing use of ensembles; Probabilistic products • GIS applications • Write forecast bulletins • Week-1&2 forecasts • Model verification studies

32. African Climate Desk Curriculum NCEP CFS V2 – 20 member ens. forecasts for DJF 2011-12 • Modes of variability (ENSO, MJO, etc.) • Access and process large data to study predictability • Subseasonal forecasting (Week-1 & Week-2) • Seasonal rainfall forecasts • Climate assessments and monitoring • One week visit to the IRI

33. On-The-Job Training African Desk staff and trainees Senegal Ethiopia Nigeria Thailand Mali Egypt Egypt

34. On-The-Job Training Ms. AwatifMostafa, Egypt

35. Predicting Egypt Seasonal Rainfall AwatifMostafa

36. Monsoon Desk • Established in 2010 • US China Bilateral Agreement on Science and Technology • Objective: To improve climate prediction in countries affected by monsoons Visiting Scientists in the Monsoon Desk

37. Theme: Operational Climate Prediction and Monitoring Focus: Ocean Basins Indian Ocean: Africa and SE Asia, Vietnam, 2009 Mediterranean: Africa and SE Europe, Turkey, 2010 Atlantic Basin: Africa and Caribbean, Senegal, 2011 Pacific Basin: Central America, South America, SE Asia, Pacific Islands, Costa Rica, 2012 NOAA-USAID SponsoredInternational Climate Training Workshops Lecture Session on Droughts Classroom photo, First International Training Workshop, Vietnam, 2009

38. Ocean Predictability • Model Name Members • NCEP CFS V1 15 • NCEP CFS V2 28 • GFDL-CM2.2 10 • IRI-Echam4-f 12 • IRI-Echam4-a 12 • CCSM3.0 6 Courtesy: H. Van den Dool

39. Proposed moored buoys NOAA-WMOCapacity building – Ocean Observations IOC/WMO Data Buoy Cooperation Panel

40. Capacity Building: Indian Ocean First Workshop: Capetown, South Africa, April 2010 Second Workshop: Mauritius, April 2011 Third Workshop: Mombasa, Kenya, April 2012 NOAA-United NationsCapacity building – Ocean Observations Lecture Session on Droughts Participants in the First DBCP Capacity building Workshop

41. Vision • Engage with users of climate information to identify needs and improve operational decision support systems • Explore opportunities for emerging climate applications such as health risk management • Work with international community to strengthen the capacity of climate institutions in developing countries • Foster north – south collaboration on all aspects of climate variability and change, and provide a mechanism for technology transfer that yields tangible benefits

42. Thank you