Anticipating future of local employment and skills needs

1. Anticipating future of local employment and skills needs Ian Wheeler/Debbie Bibby

2. “As for the future, your task is not to foresee it, but to enable it.” Antoine de Saint-Exupery The role of skills and labour market intelligence

3. Sector wide intelligence: The core SSC remit • As a Sector Skills Council we are responsible for developing skills and labour market intelligence for the UK’s health sector • Outputs on our website • Sector Skills Assessments, UK and for each nation • Expert/Working papers • Themed research • Future oriented work • Online LMI tool

4. Key issues around developing using local intelligence • Planning on workforce issues often falls into the trap of more of the same, difficult to the see the link with the demand for health services • Difficult for employers to have local visibility of all that is needed to develop the right people for the services they want to provide • Local information/intelligence is valuable but difficult to source • Performance and productivity and its linkages to people skills and health needs is critical

5. Skills for Health’s local intelligence response Profile of health demand and consumers Using ACORN Health ACORN consumer profiling Health observatory intelligence Patient satisfaction surveys Profile of performance using key performance indicators derived from SFH Benchmarking database, ISD, CQC, and employers own Employment and Skills intelligence LFS, ABI, ESR, staff surveys, skills passport employers own data

6. Future Problems exceeding Scotland average 17%

7. Type 9 - Poor single parent families with lifestyle related illnesses • Glasgow City 12%, Inverclyde 6% • Scotland average 3% • Similar region – Derry 13% and Belfast 8% • 1 in five thinks they are in poor health • High incidence of: • Depression, insomnia, migraine • Anxiety, panic disorders, phobias • Issues of needle sharing • Herpes, hepatitis

8. Type 10 - Multi-ethnic, high smoking, high fast food consumption • Dundee City 7%, West Dunbartonshire 7% • Scotland average 3% • Highest in UK Lambeth 10% • Similar to Tower Hamlets and Barking and Dagenham • A third are overweight • Fast food and hot instant snacks • High incidence of: • Depression, migraine, anxiety, insomnia • IBS, other digestive problems

9. Type 11 - Urban estates with sedentary lifestyles, low fruit & veg consumption • North Lanarkshire 7%, North Ayrshire 7% • Scotland average 3% • Manchester 14% • Similar to Wrexham and Islington • Avoid exercise, high BMI, Morbidly obese • High incidence of: • COPD • Angina • Stroke, angina, other heart problems • Depression and digestive disorders

10. Type 12 - Deprived multi-ethnic estates, smokers and overweight • North Ayrshire 8%, Midlothian 7% • Scotland average 4% • Tower Hamlets 27.5% • Similar to Walsall and Halton • Third of adults are obese • High incidence of • Anxiety, depression, migraine • Eczema • Restless leg syndrome

11. Type 13 - Disadvantaged multi-ethnic younger adults, high levels of smoking • Shetland Islands 10%, Dundee City 8% • Scotland average 3% • Islington 13% • Similar to Leicester and N E Lincolnshire • Higher than usual singles, flat shares and single parents • Many smokers • High incidence of: • Depression, insomnia, heartburn

12. South Lanarkshire – output area level

13. South Lanarkshire Profile • 312,300 residents • Higher than average presence of ‘existing problems’ and ‘possible future concerns’ • Similar to East Ayrshire and Newport • Key health types • Affluent professionals • Affluent towns • Health types of concern • Deprived neighbourhoods • Elderly with associated health problems

14. Street Level - Hamilton

15. Street Level - Stornoway

16. Benefits and outputs • Link between demand for health care, performance of service and the skills and people needed make improvements • A collective approach with different institutions in a area - who might deliver services • Provides a direction of travel - priorities for skills development and skills utilisation • A very flexible approach, eg can look at local workforce in a number of ways

17. Scenario planning – why do it?How we do it Plausible, credible, challenging futures Current state of play Drivers for change

18. Business and Economy Class Emerging economies drive global growth, but the effects are not shared by all, leading to polarisation between the haves and have not’s. A growing older population develops a ‘grey power’ lobby that becomes more influential and looks after its own. As part of a two tier system ‘Robonurse’ links individuals with central monitoring systems so that people can be maintained and supported in their own homes. Spare body parts are readily accessible over the internet. The future (s) Business and economy class United we stand In this scenario, people take more personal responsibility and there is greater willingness within communities to ‘improve their lot’. Increased volunteering and non-traditional partnerships contribute to healthcare provision. There is stronger cohesion within the EU where Brussels ‘rules’, and the influence of traditional UK institutions is reduced. Its your choice Its your choice Here we see a fragmented self-centred world, reduced influence and number of Quangos. Funding constraints leading to greater inequalities between young and old and between ethnic groups, and decisions on priorities are made locally with no single ownership of health care. Technology and the internet allow people to self-diagnose and take ownership of their diagnostic outcomes. United we stand

19. Testing your options SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 3 Success? Failure? Dependent on scenario Introduce new role? Give more responsibility to pharmacists? Change skills mix? 19

20. Benefits of Scenario development and application • Team building • Early warnings - Spot early opportunities • Reducing risk: preparing for possible changes • Robust decision making: puts decision-makers together with topics and issues which they don't normally consider • Challenges accepted norms and makes people think about the discontinuities, shocks and changes that are likely to affect them • Look beyond the daily fire-fighting tasks • See over the official futures

21. Testimonies On Scenario planning and development “I attended one of Skills for Health’s scenario building workshops and I have to say it was one of the best sessions of this type I have attended. I have really learned a lot about the approach and how it can help me think creatively and comfortably about the future.” Linda Shrewsbury, Head of Workforce, NHS Warwickshire On complete perspectives approach “The reports offer us a series of unique insights, including pinpointing disparities between local health service supply and population demand. By using this information to optimise our services for local demand we will increase overall productivity and service quality.” Adrian Whittle, Head of HR and Organisational Development NHS Cambridgeshire and NHS Peterborough

22. Research and Intelligence Services • Service one – Intelligence on the current and future demand for services in your local area • Service two – Scenario planning • Service three – expert research on your skills and workforce issues

23. www.skillsforhealth.org.uk Email addresses of regional directors