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MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

This report provides an analysis of Brazil's macroeconomic outlook, including GDP growth, unemployment rates, labor market dynamics, social mobility, inflation behavior, productivity, and interest rates. It also highlights the key challenges facing the Brazilian economy, such as demographic changes and the impact of global factors.

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MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK

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  1. MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK DETERMINED BY CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK AND ITS IMPACTS ON EXCHANGE-RATE AND BY THE SLOWER DOMESTIC GROWTH EconomicResearchDepartment - DEPEC

  2. BRAZILIAN GDP – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 1984 - 2014 CRESCIMENTO DO PIB 1984 - 2012 10 YEARS AVERAGE: 3.6% 20 YEARS AVERAGE: 2.7% SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

  3. PARA COMBATER A INFLAÇÃO BASAL, O BRASIL PRECISARIA DE UMA ESPÉCIE DE PLANO REAL II THE KEY CHALLENGES OF BRAZILIAN ECONOMY: DEMOGRAPHY, LABOR MARKET AND EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

  4. LOW UNEMPLOYMENT IN BRAZIL IS FUNDAMENTALLY EXPLAINED BY DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES • LABOR SUPPLY GROWTHS TOO SLOWLY

  5. BRAZILIAN LABOR MARKET: SUPPLY AND DEMAND (12-MONTHS CHANGE) SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

  6. BRAZILIAN POPULATION AGED BETWEEN 18 AND 24 (IN MILLION) SOURCE: PNAD/IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO 7

  7. POPULATION RATE OF GROWTH – WORLD AND BRAZIL BRAZIL WORLD SOURCE: WORLD BANK, BRADESCO 8

  8. BRAZILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE – SIX MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS ANNUAL AVERAGE (2005 – 2015) SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

  9. BRAZILIAN NET CREATION OF FORMAL JOB – ‘000 INDIVIDUAL JOBS SOURCE: CAGED FORECAST: BRADESCO

  10. BRAZILIAN REAL WAGES – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO 11

  11. BRAZILIAN NOMINAL WAGES ADJUSTMENTS – BRADESCO SURVEY – ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE SOURCE: MBA / BRADESCO

  12. INDUSTRY THAT WAS NOT ALREADY COMPETITIVE WAS NOT PREPARED FOR INCREASED COSTS OF WAGES.BESIDES THIS, GLOBAL DEMAND ACCOMODATED IN A SLOWER PACE OF GROWTH

  13. PERCENT CHANGES IN HOURLY COMPENSATION COSTS IN MANUFACTURING, US$, 2006-2012 14 SOURCE: BLS, BRADESCO

  14. BRAZILIAN MANUFACTURING EXPORTS – QUANTUM, INDEX NUMBER – 12 MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE 2006 = 100 SOURCE: FUNCEX, BRADESCO 15

  15. BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE) SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO 16

  16. AS A RESULT, HIGH WAGES WILL KEEP CONSUMPTION INCREASING. BESIDES THIS, IMPROVEMENT IN SOCIAL MOBILILITY ACCUMULATED OVER THE LAST YEARS SUSTAIN FAMILY DEMAND FOR GOODS AND SERVICE.

  17. BRAZILIAN RETAIL SALES – INCLUIDING AUTO AND BUILDING MATERIALS (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE) SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO 18

  18. BRAZILIAN SOCIAL MOBILITY: NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN CLASSES A,B AND C - 12-MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE SOURCE: PME, PNAD/IBGE, BRADESCO 19

  19. BRAZILIAN SOCIAL CLASSES, IN MILLION PEOPLE SOURCE: IBGE; BRADESCO

  20. BRAZILIAN GRAIN PRODUCTION 1991- 2014 EM MIL TON SOURCE AND FORECAST: CONAB, USDA, BRADESCO * Projeção G:\Area Economica\BBV\Regina\ palestra agribusiness - arroz preços internos.xls

  21. INFLATION BEHAVIOURWILL DEPEND ON: FOOD, SERVICES AND PASS THROUGH 22

  22. BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INCOME AND SERVICE INFLATION CONSUMER PRICES INDEX - HIKE ACCUMULATED SINCE JAN/2004 2004 - 2014 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO 23

  23. BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INCOME AND DURABLE GOODS INFLATION CONSUMER PRICES INDEX - HIKE ACCUMULATED SINCE JAN/2004 2004 - 2014 24 SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

  24. BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – FOOD COMPONENT (12-MONTHS PERCENT CHANGE) SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO

  25. BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 12-MONTHS PERCENT CHANGE SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

  26. BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION (IPCA) - 2004-2014* SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO

  27. PRODUCTIVITY MUST INCREASE IN BRAZIL GAP BETWEEN SUPPLY AND DEMAND WILL BE CLOSED WITH SUPPLY EXPANSION, LABOR FORCE QUALIFICATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE GROWTH

  28. INVESTMENTS – FROM BRAZILIAN GDP FIGURES (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE) SOURCE: IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO 29 29

  29. BRAZILIAN AVERAGE SCHOOLING YEARS PEOPLE AGED 25 OR MORE SOURCE: PNAD/IBGE FORECAST: BRADESCO 30

  30. OUTLOOK FOR INTEREST RATE AND EXCHANGE RATE 31

  31. BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (SELIC) 2008-2014 SOURCE: BCB FORECAST: BRADESCO

  32. BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ 2009 - 2014 SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FORECAST: BRADESCO 33

  33. BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ 2000 - 2014 SOURCE: BLOOMBERG FORECAST: BRADESCO 34

  34. US TREASURIES – 10 YEARS 2010- 2014 Em % SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO D:\Area Economica\BBV\BLOOMBERG - T-BOND 10 ANOS E 30 ANOS.xls

  35. CHINESE GDP – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE 1997 - 2016 SOURCE: CEIC FORECAST: BRADESCO 36

  36. BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT (IN USD MILLION) SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO FORECAST: BRADESCO

  37. FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT – US$ million SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO

  38. DEPEC-BRADESCO: MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO Estimation based on information available until 10th March, 2014

  39. WWW.ECONOMIAEMDIA.COM.BR DEPEC - BRADESCO does not accept responsibility for any actions/decisions that may be taken based on the information provided in its publications and projections. All the data and opinions contained in these information bulletins is carefully checked and drawn up by fully qualified professionals, but it should not be used, under any hypothesis, as the basis, support, guidance or norm for any document, valuations, judgments or decision taking, whether of a formal or informal nature. Therefore, we emphasize that all the consequences and responsibility for using any data or analysis contained in this publication is assumed exclusively by the user, exempting BRADESCO from all responsibility for any actions resulting from the usage of this material. We all point out that access to this information implies acceptance in full of this term of responsibility and usage. The reproduction of the content in this report (partially or in full) is strictly forbidden except if authorized by BRADESCO or if the sources (the name of the authors, publication and BRADESCO) are strictly mentioned. Updated 10th March, 2014

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