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Environmental Kuznets Curve in Road Transport

IAASAT CONFERENCE Saint Malo & Mont Saint-Michel, France, April 2-4, 2012 Zdenek Riha, Marek Honcu Czech Technical Univerity, Faculty of Transportation Sciences. Environmental Kuznets Curve in Road Transport. INTRODUCTION.

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Environmental Kuznets Curve in Road Transport

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  1. IAASAT CONFERENCESaint Malo & Mont Saint-Michel, France, April 2-4, 2012Zdenek Riha, Marek HoncuCzech Technical Univerity, Faculty of Transportation Sciences Environmental Kuznets Curve in Road Transport

  2. INTRODUCTION • The transport system has a strong relationship to life quality and above all to environmental problems • Models of life quality – for example Maslow (pyramid) or Veenhoven (2006): • There is problem with soft factors of life quality

  3. RELATION BETWEEN TRANSPORT SYSTEM AND LIFE QUALITY • From the indicated approach it unambiguously follows (and other models would confirm it) that the influence of economic factors and other hard ones will be limited and the life quality will be affected by many other, subjective impacts. • From the viewpoint of the transport system the link to the first quadrant will be interesting – thus how the transport system influences the environment that afterwards affects the life quality. • Influence of: • inner quality of transport • externalities • economic output (GDP)

  4. RELATIONS BETWEEN TRANSPORT SYSTEM AND LIFE QUALITY Relations Between Transport System And Life Quality INNER QUALITY OF TRANSPORT SYSTEM GDP FACTOR TRANSPORT SYSTEM LIFE QUALITY EXTERNALITIES EXTERNAL COSTS EXTERNAL BENEFITS

  5. Gini index The creating of midlle class – Gini index is decreasing % INCOME „Ideal“ Lorentz Curve GDP AREA B Really curve of income dividing AREA A % POPULATION KUZNETS CURVE • Simon Kuznets – american economist of russian parentage • He was focused on problems of measurement of economic output • Kuznets Curve is relation between GDP and unequal income (by Gini index):

  6. Turning Point Income Environmental Decay Environmental Improvement Deterioration Per Capita Income ENVIRONMENTAL KUZNETS CURVE • The environmental Kuznets curve was introduced by the economists Grossman and Krueger. • It states that the environment begins to improve with the growth of GDP per capita, as e.g. better technologies start to be used after some level of welfare had been reached. Where: emissions per capita zit in locality i at time t, coefficients βi, independent variable average GDP per capita yit, other explaining factors Xit and error term εit (Grossman & Krueger, 1995)

  7. REASONS FOR EKC • The transition from agricultural character of the society to the industrial one during the industrial revolution was followed by the increased environmental deterioration • The decreasing shape of the EKC can be explained by technological changes. Innovation has usually been decreasing the energy consumption rate as well as emission factors • The demand for better environment has been increasing with the growing wealth • More wealthy society has been asserting through its public representatives more strict environmental legislation • The last reason relates to the transfer of production to poorer countries with lower labour cost

  8. VERIFICATION OF EKC • For the verification of the EKC in road transport we have analysed the emissions as function of the GDP of 16 countries of the European Union: • Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, • Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, Austria, Sweden and United Kingdom

  9. CONCLUSIONS • The relation beetwen carbon dioxide emissions and global warming is problematic • X=f(GDP) • with total emissions X, emission factor of transport energy consumption e, road transport energy intensity of GDP ρ • Carbon dioxide emissions show in general (regardless the source activity) a strong linear correlation with GDP

  10. CONCLUSIONS The situation of emissions of nitrogen oxides is more interesting. A final regression with a quadratic function was used that corresponds to the theoretical shape of the EKC.

  11. CONCLUSIONS • Our data show that except for carbon dioxide, the emissions per capita from road transport decrease with the growing GDP per capita, i.e. the environmental Kuznets curve could be valid for the emissions from road transport. • According to our simple analysis the explanation could be only the successful control of emissions, e.g. by the EURO standards. • Other factors like lower consumption vehicles, better transport technologies etc. seem not to contribute at the total to this decrease, because the road transport energy intensity of GDP seems to be constant.

  12. Thank you for your attention, Zdeněk ŘÍHA rihazden@fd.cvut.cz

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