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Birger Solberg Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management

The Forest Sector Model EFI GTM – a global model for analyzing impacts related to forestry and forest industries Presentation at NORAD/DECEE seminar on natural resource issues in low- and middle income countries April 12, 2011. Birger Solberg

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Birger Solberg Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management

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  1. The Forest Sector Model EFI GTM – a global model for analyzing impacts related to forestry and forest industriesPresentation at NORAD/DECEE seminar on natural resource issues in low- and middle income countries April 12, 2011 Birger Solberg Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management Norwegian University of Life Sciences

  2. Institutt for naturforvaltning

  3. Institutt for naturforvaltning

  4. Institutt for naturforvaltning

  5. Main experiences from modelling with EFI-GTM Studies/scenarios analyzed with EFI-GTM model during 2000-2005 are: 1) Accelerated forest growth in Europe 2) Investments into plantations in Latin America and Asia 3) Forest conservation in Europe 4) Reduction of illegal logging 5) Wood-Pellets production in the Baltic Area 6) Wood biomass potential supply for bioenergy EEA 7) Forest industry competitiveness in Central and Eastern Europe 1 & 2 analyzed increased supply (1 in Europe and 2 outside of Europe) 3 & 4 analyzed reduced wood supply (3 in EU area and 4 in Russia) 5 & 6 analyzed impact of increased demand for bio-energy and competition between bio-energy and forest industries for wood fiber Study 7 analyzed impacts of higher investments into CEEC forest industries due to investment subsidies.

  6. Some main ”lessons learned” • The data-input most problematic are: • Long distance transport costs and international transport costs • Harvesting costs per country • Inclusion of bioenergy production costs/ability to pay for wood biomass • Income demand elasticities for certain products where statistics is insufficient, like OSB, MDF, bioenergy. • Forest stock and growth data outside OECD countries • It takes time to communicate between economists, engineers and model builders/programmers and to learn each others vocabular and way of and solving problems. • ”The perfect is the enemy of the good” . All models are simplifications of reality - one should aim at the ”optimal complexity”. NB: It is the impact of changes which is sought – the uncertainty on that is less than doing single prognosis.

  7. Further references: • Model description: • Kallio, Moiseyev & Solberg, 2004. The Global Forest Sector Model EFI-GTM - the model structure. EFI Technical Report 15. http://www.efi.int/portal/virtual_library/publications/technical_reports/15/ • Previous applications, e.g.: • -Solberg, Moiseyev & Kallio. 2003. Economic impacts of accelerating forest growth in Europe. Forest Policy and Economics 5(2): 157-171. • -Kallio, Moiseyev & Solberg. 2006. Economic impacts of increased forest conservation in Europe: a forest sector model analysis. Env.Sci. Policy 9. • -Moiseyev, A., B. Solberg, B. Michie, A.M.I. Kallio 2010: Modeling the impacts of policy measures to prevent import of illegal wood and wood products. For. Policy and Economics 12(1):24-30. • -Solberg, B., A. Moiseyev, A.M.I. Kallio & A. Toppinen 2010: Forest sector market impacts of changed roundwood export tariffs and investment climate in Russia. For. Policy and Economics 12(7):489-496. • -Kallio, Solberg & Moiseyev. 2008. Analysing forest sector sustainability. • MATISSE Working Papers 28. http://www.matisseproject.net/projectcomm/uploads/tx_article/Working_Paper_28.pdf). • biomass availability; impact on FLEGT/Russian timber taxes on forest sector- 3.1.2020

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