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Electoral Systems

Electoral Systems. Pippa Norris ~ Harvard www.pippanorris.com. Components of institutional design. Structure. Normative principles of elections Types of electoral systems What are the choices? How do they work? Explaining processes of electoral system change

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Electoral Systems

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  1. Electoral Systems Pippa Norris ~ Harvard www.pippanorris.com

  2. Components of institutional design www.pippanorris.com

  3. Structure • Normative principles of elections • Types of electoral systems • What are the choices? How do they work? • Explaining processes of electoral system change • Do electoral systems determine party systems? Or the reverse? • Conclusions and implications www.pippanorris.com

  4. Required readings • Pippa Norris. 2008. Driving Democracy: Do Power-Sharing Institutions Work? Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Ch 5. • Benoit, Kenneth. 2007. ‘Electoral laws as political consequences: explaining the origins and change of electoral institutions.’ Annual Review of Political Science 10: 363-90. DOI: 10.1146/annurev.polisci.10.072805.101608 • International IDEA. 2008. Electoral System Design. The new IDEA International Handbook. Ed. Andrew Reynolds, Ben Reilly and Andrew Ellis. http://www.idea.int/publications/esd/upload/ESD_Handb_low.pdf pp1-29. www.pippanorris.com

  5. Online Resources • IFES • www.ifes.org/eguide/elecguide.htm • ACE • http://www.aceproject.org/ • International IDEA • www.EPICproject.int www.pippanorris.com

  6. Discussion Questions • What are the pros and cons of alternative electoral systems? • What would you recommend if asked to advise about designing the electoral system in either (a) Afghanistan (b) Iraq (c ) Ukraine (d) Nepal or (e) Bhutan? And why? www.pippanorris.com

  7. I: Normative debates www.pippanorris.com

  8. Normative criteria How would you rank the importance of these criteria for Afghanistan, Nepal, and Bhutan? • Providing representation • Geographic, ideological, party, and descriptive • Making elections accessible and meaningful • Providing incentives for conciliation • Facilitating stable and efficient government • Holding the government accountable • Holding individual representatives accountable • Encouraging political parties • Promoting legislative opposition and oversight • Making electoral processes sustainable • Meeting international standards Source: International IDEA. 2008. Electoral System Design pp9-14. www.pippanorris.com

  9. Recap: Consociationaldemocracy • Lijphart (1968) The Politics of Accommodation • Netherlands exemplified ‘pillorized’ divided society • Yet there was stable democracy and elite consensus • Why? Constitutional arrangements • Proportional representation of all major groups in elected/appointed office • Executive power-sharing/grand coalition • Minority veto in government • Cultural autonomy for groups • Model for other divided (plural) societies? • E.g. Belgium, Switzerland, Lebanon, Cyprus

  10. The logical sequence of consociationaltheory in divided societies PR electoral systems (or reserved seats) Election of ethnic minority parties Peaceful democratic consolidation Greater support within minority communities Federalism & decentralization Election of ethnic minority parties Does the logic make sense? Criticisms?

  11. II: Types of electoral systems • The most basic features involve: 1.The electoral formula • how votes are counted to allocate seats, 2. The district magnitude • the number of seats per district, 3. Theballot structure • how voters can express their choices, and The electoral threshold • the minimum votes needed by a party to secure representation. www.pippanorris.com

  12. Classification of systems Adversarial Consensual www.pippanorris.com Source: Norris: Driving democracy p113

  13. 1. Plurality • Single member plurality elections (First-Past-The-Post) • Used in 54 countries Eg US, UK, India, Canada • Single seat districts, equal size, ‘X’ vote • Simple plurality of votes determines winner • Create ‘manufactured majority’ in votes:seats ratio • Geographical dispersion of support is critical • High threshold for non-spatially concentrated minor parties and ethnic groups www.pippanorris.com

  14. FPTP Ballot Eg UK % 30 20 15 35 Advantages and disadvantages? X Elected w. plurality www.pippanorris.com

  15. June 2005 % of Votes % of seats Ratio Number of seats Labour 35.2 54.9 1.56 355 Conservative 32.3 30.4 0.94 197 Lib Dem 22.0 9.5 0.43 62 SNP 1.5 0.9 0.60 6 PC 0.6 0.5 0.83 3 Other 8.4 3.4 0.40 23 Labour Maj. 2.9 24.5 66 Total 100 100 659 2005 UK election result www.pippanorris.com Source: Pippa Norris & Chris Wlezien Ed. Britain Votes 2005 (OUP 2005)

  16. Simulated seats GB June 2005 www.pippanorris.com Source: Dunleavy and Margetts in Pippa Norris (Ed) Britain Votes 2005 OUP

  17. Majoritarian Variants • Single Non-Transferable Vote • Japan 1948-1993, Jordan, Vanuatu, Afghanistan • Small multimember districts • Multiple candidates from same party • Single vote cast & plurality vote required • Advantages and disadvantages? • Cumulative vote • Dual member seats eg Illinois until 1980 • Limited vote eg Spanish senate www.pippanorris.com

  18. 2. Second ballot majority • Eg Presidential elections France, Russia, DRC • Used in 14/25 presidential contests + some parliamentary elections • Majority required (50%+) 1st round – winner • Or ‘run off’ 2nd round w. top two candidates • Aims to produce party coalitions on left and right and popular legitimacy of the winner • ‘Heart’ and ‘head’ voting • Advantages and disadvantages? www.pippanorris.com

  19. 3. Alternative Vote (AV) • Eg Australian House of Representatives • [Preferential voting] • Single member districts • Priority ranked voting (1st, 2nd, 3rd,etc.) • Majority required (50%+) 1st round • Or 2nd round bottom votes 2nd preferences redistributed etc. and results recalculated until majority achieved www.pippanorris.com

  20. Eg AV Australian HofRep Must rank preferences across all candidates to be a valid ballot Advantages and disadvantages? www.pippanorris.com

  21. 2010 Australian HofR results www.pippanorris.com

  22. www.pippanorris.com

  23. 4. Single Transferable Vote • Used in Ireland, Australian Senate, Malta • Multimember constituencies (4/5 members) • Priority voting (1,2,3,..) • Quota for election eg • 100,000 voters/4 seats=25000+1 • Redistribution in successive counts from candidate with least votes www.pippanorris.com

  24. www.pippanorris.com

  25. 2007 Irish Dial election results www.pippanorris.com

  26. 5. PR – Party Lists • National or regional district • Closed or open list • Used 62/191 nations eg Israel, Netherlands • One vote for party (X) • Minimum threshold of votes www.pippanorris.com

  27. Eg Party List S.Africa Advantages and disadvantages? www.pippanorris.com

  28. Summary of the 22 April 2009 South AfricanNational Assembly election results www.pippanorris.com

  29. PR List formula • Votes proportional to seats allocated by different formula • Highest averages • Total votes per party divided by divisors, seats allocated to highest quotient up to total seats available • D’Hondt formula divisions 1,2,3 etc eg Poland, Spain (least prop.) • Pure Saint-Laguë divisor 1,3,5,7 etc eg New Zealand • Modified Saint-Laguë 1.4, 3,5,7 etc eg Norway (most proportional) • Largest remainder • Minimum quota (total votes/total seats) • Hare quota total votes/total seats eg Benin, Costa Rica • Droop quota raises divisor by 1 eg S.Africa, Czech Rep. www.pippanorris.com

  30. Eg D’Hondt formulaHighest averages www.pippanorris.com

  31. Eg Largest remainders Hare Quota=(130,010 total votes/12 seats=10,384) www.pippanorris.com

  32. 6. Combined systems • Aka ‘Mixed’, ‘hybrid’, ‘side-by-side’ • ‘Combined-independent’ • eg Taiwan and Ukraine • Ukraine half FPTP, half nation-wide lists, 4% thresholds • ‘Combined-dependent’ • eg Germany, New Zealand, • Germany half seats by party list, half by FPTP. • Seats allocated by FPTP • Total seats proportional to 2nd party vote www.pippanorris.com

  33. Eg Combined system Germany X Advantages and disadvantages? x www.pippanorris.com

  34. IV: Conclusions • Therefore no single ‘best’ system • Depends upon priorities –choice of governability v. diversity • Critical choices for many other democratic institutions • Rules are often amended • What are the consequences of electoral systems? www.pippanorris.com

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