Electoral Systems week 5

1. Electoral Systemsweek 5 Does the defeat for AV referendum mean that reform is off the agenda? Joy Johnson

2. Electoral systems – key texts • Morrison, Public Affairs for Journalists • King, British constitution • Laws, 22 Days in May • Renwick, a citizen’s guide to electoral reform • Baston & Ritchie Don’t Take No For An Answer the 2011 Referendum • The Coalition Constitution and the Constitution, Bogdanor • Various papers inc: • John Curtice, Parliamentary Affairs, Vol. 63 No. 4, 2010, 623–638

3. Labour defend their positionresult a hung Parliament • http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8667457.stm • UK polarised – Conservative in the South, Labour in the North and Scotland • Result - First Past the Post (winner takes all)

4. Day after the night before • http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8669690.stm • Clegg addresses media following the 2010 general election • With no outright winner he tells reporters that he would talk to the Conservatives as they had the most votes • He declares that this election showed that the present system is broken

5. Protesters demand electoral reform • http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/8670002.stm

8. Examples - Safe Seat – Birmingham Erdington (2005) • Turnout 64939 (48.9%) • Simon S.L. (lab) 16,810 (53.0%) • Evidge V.T. (Con) 7,235 (22.8%) • Evans, J (LD) 5,027 (15.8%) • Ebanks S.E (BNP) 746 (2.3%) • Williams, T (NF) 416 (1.3%) • Lab majority 9.575 (Robinson p10)

9. Result of Erdington • Single plurality system Simons won the vote • And with more than half the vote • Other candidates votes wasted • Party machines tend to ignore the safe seats and concentrate on the marginals – key seat battleground • 2011 labour party defended their seats – helped prevent a Conservative overall majority

10. Examples – Argyll & Bute • Turnout 67,271 (64.3%) • Reid, A (LD) 15,786 (36.5%) • Mcgrigor, J.A.R.N (Con) 10,150 (23.5%) • Mnson, C (Lab) 9,692 (22.4%) • Henderson, D (SSP) 881 (2.0%) • LD majority 5,636

11. Result of Argyll & Bute • Winning candidate well short of fifty per cent • Those opposing Liberal Democrat accounted for nearly two-thirds of the vote

12. Result of 2005 UK Gen Election • Party %votes No of seats % seats • Labour 35.3 356 55.1 • Con 32.3 198 30.7 • Lib Dem 22.1 62 9.6 • Other 10.3 30 4.6

13. Result • Labour’s majority reduced from 2001 yet the party achieved 55 per cent share of H of C seats with just 35 per cent of the national vote. • Majority of the seats with a minority of the votes

15. 2010 election result • http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/

18. Scotland’s electoral system – Scottish Parliament • How the Additional Member System (AMS) works • 129 Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) • Each elector (voter) has two votes. • 73 constituencies • Each constituency one MSP on first past the post (as in Westminster elections._ • This is the elector's 'first vote'. • The 'second vote' is used to elect 56 additional members. • Scotland is divided into 8 parliamentary Regions and each region elects 7 regional MSPs. • The parties are then allocated a number of additional members to make the overall result more proportional. • The regional MSPs are selected from lists compiled by the parties. • These MSPs are also sometimes referred to as List MSPs.

19. Fixed terms (Scottish Parliament) • General elections for the Scottish Parliament take place every four years, normally on the first Thursday in May. • First Minister cannot call an election before the end of four years. • Only in extraordinary circumstances can the date be changed by a two-thirds majority of all MSPs.

25. Majoritarian systems • Term used to classify candidates who win by obtaining majority of votes cast • (first past the post can result in candidates winner on fewer than half the total votes cast)

26. Supplementary vote • Supplementary vote – used in London Mayoral election • If only two candidates first past the post used • More than two • Votes cast on preference 1st and 2nd choice • If candidate wins more than half (majority) he or she elected • If not, others drop out and their 2nd preference redistributed

27. Result UK councils/BBC • At-a-glance: Elections 2012 • PM hails Johnson mayoral victory • Labour are back, says Ed Miliband • Cities say 'no' to elected mayors • Vote 2012: As it happened • Projected vote share: Labour 38%, Conservatives 31%, Lib Dems 16%, others 15% • Labour have gained 823 councillors seats, the Conservatives have lost 405 and the Lib Dems 336 • The Conservatives are nine points down on 2008, Labour are up 16 points and the Lib Dems down eight points • Turnout is projected at 32% - the lowest in English local elections since 2000

28. London Mayor - result • Boris Johnson 971,931 first preference votes • Ken Livingstone’s 889,918, • neither reached the 50% mark, second preference votes were taken into account. • The Labour candidate won (more second pref) 102,355 to his rival’s 82,880, but it was not enough to put him in front. • In a further poor result for the Liberal Democrats, the party’s candidate Brian Paddick was beaten into third place by the Jenny Jones of the Greens. Paddick won 91,774 votes to Jones’s 98,913. Independent Siobhan Benita was fifth with 83,914.

29. Alternative Vote (AV) • Lib Dems compromised to get the agreement • Referendum 5 May 2011 • Referendum on AV had been in Labour 2010 manifesto • Preferential not proportional • All candidates ranked in order • When all votes cast if one candidate has won over 50% elected • If not candidate with the fewer first preference is eliminated and his or her are redistributed • Last candidate eliminated • Eventually candidate with more than 50% wins • More than 50% produces legitimacy • Least unpopular wins • Elector’s first choice not counted

30. AV cont • Still has single member constituency • Shouldn’t produce extremist parties • Result of this system would be the election of many candidates who were not the first choice of most of the electorate • Leading to least common denominator of the electorate • Nick Clegg in the past had called it a ‘miserable little compromise’ but this was before the coalition government • Political parties still retain power to chose candidates

32. AV result • 19.1m people voted in the second UK-wide referendum in history - a higher than expected turnout of 41%. • The final result put the Yes vote at 32.1% and the No vote at 67.9%.

33. AV (vote on national issues) • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Eyg_f7nTYo (Mandelson interview)

34. Proportional Representation • In systems of proportional representation, every party provides a list of candidates for selection on a regional or national basis. • These lists may be open or closed: an open list means electors have the ability to indicate some preference over which of the candidates they choose from the party list; a closed list means electors must vote for the party as a whole and the list is presented to them as a fait accompli.  • Each party standing for election wins seats in accordance with the proportion of votes it receives. A closed list system is used for European parliamentary elections.

48. Cameron campaigning against AVClegg for AV • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jAWmKgIOqv8 • http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/av-referendum/8332801/AV-referendum-its-a-once-in-a-generation-opportunity-says-Nick-Clegg.html

49. Electoral Reform Society • http://www.google.co.uk/#hl=en&sugexp=les%3B&gs_rn=2&gs_ri=hp&cp=14&gs_id=1i&xhr=t&q=electoral+reform+society&es_nrs=true&pf=p&tbo=d&sclient=psy-ab&oq=electoral+refo&gs_l=&pbx=1&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.&bvm=bv.42080656,d.d2k&fp=6348424fbb5b8e3b&biw=1280&bih=657

50. Question • Essential public for journalists, Morrison Ch 4 • Don’t Take No For An Answer, Baston & Ritchie Ch 9 • The Coalition and the Constitution, Bogdanor, Ch 5 • With the defeat of the AV referendum is that the end for the reform of how UK votes in Westminster elections?