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Eurasian Economic Integration. 2014. EDB Centre for Integration Studies. Section I. Eurasian Economic Integration and its institutions. Regional integration stages. Economic Union. STAGES. SUPRANATIONAL REGULATORY BODY. Single Economic Space. Customs Union. Free Trade Zone.
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EurasianEconomicIntegration 2014 EDB Centre for Integration Studies
Section I. Eurasian Economic Integration and its institutions
Regional integration stages Economic Union STAGES SUPRANATIONAL REGULATORY BODY Single Economic Space Customs Union Free Trade Zone
History of Eurasian integration FORMATION OF THE EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION (EEU) SINGLE CODED DOCUMENT COMMENCEMENT OF EEC OPERATION FORMATION OF THE SES FORMATION OF THE CU Decision of IGC to form the CU as a part of EurAsEc SES PROJECT Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia Treaty on the establishment of EurAsEC Treaty on the CustomsUnion and SES Agreement ondeeperintegration CU: Russia - Belarus CU: Russia - Kazakhstan nolaterthan 01.2015 NO INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION AND LEGAL PERSONALITY INTEGRATION STRUCTURES CREATED INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION AND LEGAL PERSONALITY EXISTS EurAsEc structures: IGC, IC, IPA, IC Secretariat EEU structures: SEES, EEC, Court, Assembly SES structures: SEEC, EEC Court CU Structures: SACU, CUC, CUC Secretariat
EEU management bodies Supreme Eurasian Economic Union (Heads of State Parties) EurasianIntergovernmentalCouncil (HeadsofGovernmentsoftheParties) Council of the Commission 3 Council members, one Vice Prime Minister of each Party EEC Commission Board Advisory bodies (9 BoardMembers, 3 pereachParty) Chairman of the Board MemberoftheBoard (Minister) formainareasof integrationandmacroeconomics Member of the Board (Minister) for Economics and Financial Policy Member of the Board (Minister) for Trade Advisory bodies Member of the Board (Minister) for Technical Regulation – Member of the Board (Minister) for Competition and Antitrust Regulation Member of the Board (Minister) for Industry and Agroindustrial Complex Member of the Board (Minister) for Energy and Infrastructure Member of the Board (Minister) for Customs Cooperation– Departments Departments Departments
EEU budget ASSESSED CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE PARTIES Proportional to standard distribution of import customs duties for each party (Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Commission) RUSSIA KAZAKHSTAN BELARUS
Customs Union Single customs area Abandonment of customs clearance of goods in mutual trade Uniform Customs Code Single trade regime with third countries Transfer of customs controls to the external borders Single customs tariff and non-tariff regulation system
Single Economic Space (SES) Implementation of "four freedoms": free movement of goods, services, capital and labor Harmonization and unification of the rules of economic regulation in key areas (competition, subsidies, government procurement, technical regulation, activities of natural monopolies, protection of intellectual property, etc.) Implementation of coordinated macroeconomic and monetary policy Formation of integrated sectoral markets
Labour migration in the EEU • WorkersoftheMemberStatesarenotrequiredtoobtainpermitsforworkintheStateofemployment. • TheStateofemploymentrecognizesdocumentsconfirmingeducation, withnorecognitionproceduresappliedforthesedocuments (exception - educational, legal, medical, pharmaceuticalactivities). • Theperiodoftemporarystay(residence) ofaMemberStateworkerandhisfamilymembersintheStateofemploymentisdeterminedbytheperiodofemploymentoracivilcontract. • Socialsecurity (socialinsurance) (exceptpension) isprovidedforMemberStateworkersandtheirfamilymembersonthesametermsandinthesamemannerasforthecitizensofthestateofemployment
Section II. Permanentprojects of the EDB Centre for Integration Studies
EDB Centre for Integration Studies • CentreforIntegrationStudieswasfoundedin 2011 • Itisastructuralunitofthe EDB • Focusonapplicationquantitativestudies: macroeconomicmodeling, databases, calculationofeconomiceffects • LocatedinSt. Petersburg • 7 employees, outsourcingisactivelyused
EEU macroeconomic policies analysis and forecasting system Evaluation of long-termtrendsand the currentstate of SES economies; Coordination of effortsandpositionson the development of short-andmedium-termoutlook, aswellasscenarios for the development of economicsituation; Formingproposalsandrecommendationsonmonetary, fiscalandpolicybasedon the results of forecasting; The workiscarriedoutincollaborationwith EEC andnationalauthorities (Belarus)
Monitoring of mutual direct investments (MMI) in the CIS Russian FDI stock by countries CBR and MMI CIS data Country FDI stock, $ billion (CBR data) FDI stock, $ billion (MMI CIS data) Total, CIS andGeorgia Belarus • MM is the largest international database on mutual direct investment in the CIS region • MMI CIS uses only public information sources of various types • The database has structured information on 1060 projects since 1992 Ukraine Kazakhstan Armenia Uzbekistan Tajikistan Moldova Georgia (excluding Abkhazia and SouthOssetia) Kyrgyzstan Azerbaijan Turkmenistan * Preliminary estimate by adding to the data at the beginning of 2012 information on net inflow in 2012 published by CBR on 11 June 2013.
Monitoring of direct investment of SES and Ukraine in Eurasia number of transactions with FDI from $ 100 million to $ 1 billion (end of 2012) Country number of transactions in the database number of transactions with FDI over S1 billion (end of 2012) number of transactions in the database FDI stock at the end of 2012, S billion Russia Kazakhstan Ukraine Belarus Joint projects Total • Basedonimprovedmethodology; • Geographicalcoverage- the whole of Europe,Turkey, China, Mongolia, bothKoreas, Japan, andVietnam; • Morethan 300 transactions, thoughdominatedbyRussia.
EDB Integration Barometer: attitude to the CU and SES in member states • Inusefrom 2012. A monitoringstudyofintegrationpreferencesoftheformerSovietUnionpopulation (11 CIS countriesandGeorgia) • In 2013, 12 countriesparticipatedinthesurvey. • Morethan 14 thousandpeopleinterviewed (from 1000 to 2000 ineachcountry). Absolutely positive/ mostly positive Indifferent Mostly negative/ absolutely negative Not sure
EDB Integration Barometer: attitude to the CU and SES in third countries Uzbekistan Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Armenia Georgia Moldova Ukraine Turkmenistan Azerbaijan Absolutely positive/ mostly positive Mostly negative/ absolutely negative Indifferent Not sure
EDB Integration Barometer: general preference indicators Georgia Moldova Russia Ukraine Culture Economy Kazakhstan Armenia Kazakhstan Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Azerbaijan Belarus Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Georgia Georgia Vector "Former USSR countries" Kyrgyzstan Moldova Tajikistan Moldova Turkmenistan Russia Uzbekistan Russia Uzbekistan Ukraine Turkmenistan Ukraine Vector "EU countries" All areas Policy Kazakhstan Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Armenia Belarus Azerbaijan Belarus Vector "Other countries" Tajikistan Georgia Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Moldova Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Turkmenistan Russia Uzbekistan Ukraine Uzbekistan Armenia
Eurasian Integration Indicators System • Indicatorssystemshowslong-termintegrationtrendsofthe CIS-12 region • Thepurposeofthecompositeindexistocombinevariousaspectsofregionalcooperationintoasingleindicatorreflectingthedegreeofintegrationofeachcountrywith CIS-12 • Todeterminethecompositeindexthenineintegrationindicesofeachcountrywerenormalizedwiththe CIS-12 Region, frommacroeconomicsandtradetolabormigrationandacademicmobility • EIIS wasrepublishedtwice - in 2009 and 2013 Russia Belarus Kazakhstan Ukraine Moldova Uzbekistan Tajikistan Georgia Armenia Kyrgyzstan Azerbaijan Turkmenistan
Database of regional economic organizations: global experience for EEU • Regularly updated open database on 80 regional economic integration associations / arrangements; • Comparative analysis of 110 indicators (database fragment) :
Eurasian continental integration Regardingwestwardsdirection, the possibility of economicintegrationwith the EU isbeingstudied Astoeastwardsdirection, China, India, Vietnam, andothercountriesareimportant Important areas of continental integration: EEU - West EEU - East
Single Economic Space from the Atlantic to the Pacific Liberalization of trade, including creation of free trade regimes Creation of four common spaces Economic union EU Single economic space Common internal market APEC Customs union Customs union Freetrade area Free trade area
Շնորհակալություն ուշադրության համար.Дзякую за ўвагу! Назар аударғандарыңызға рахмет! Thank you for your attention! Centre for Integration Studies Eurasian Development Bank Russian Federation, 191014 Saint-Petersburg 7 Paradnaya str. Tel.: +7 (812) 320 44 41 Fax: +7 (812) 329-40-41 www.eabr.org
FOREIGN TRADE POLICY • The union may grant tariff preferences in respect of the goods from developing and least developed countries • Uniform rules apply for determining the origin of goods imported into the customs territory • Introduction of counter measures in the customs territory of the Union carried out by the Commission, including by increasing the rates of import customs duties and introduction of quantitative restrictions, temporary suspension of preferences • Joint measures to promote exports include, in particular, insurance and export credits, international leasing, promoting the concept of "Eurasian Economic Union Product" and introduction of single labeling for the goods of the Union, organization of fairs and exhibitions, advertising and branding activities abroad • In the customs territory of the Union the single Commodity Nomenclature of Foreign Economic Activity of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Common Customs Tariff of the Eurasian Economic Union apply, which are approved by the Commission and used as trade policy instruments of the Union • Measures can be introduced to protect the domestic market with respect to the goods originating in third countries and imported into the customs territory of the Union, in the form of special protective, antidumping and countervailing measures
Key powers of the Eurasian Economic Commission Macroeconomics Determination of scenario parameters for forecasts of socio-economic development for the 3-year period natural monopolies Making decisions to expand the spheres of natural monopolies government procurement Decision to cancel the exemption from national treatment Making decisions to correct the fact of violation of obligations to implement the Agreement competition Cancellation of decisions on introduction of state price regulation. Approval of extension of the terms for introduction of state price regulation Railway transport Approval of application of exceptional rates Making decisions on suspension / cancellation of decisions on tariff changes competition Decisions to apply sanctions and fines. Decisions on restraint of violations Industrial subsidies Decisions on the admissibility of providing specific subsidies
EEU effects for membership candidate countries • Armenia: • In case of Armenia's accession to the CU short-term effects will be about 4% of GDP; • Attracting major targeted investments in the Armenian economy. • Tajikistan: • Additional increase in potential GDP growth by 3.5% in Tajikistan in the medium term. • Kyrgyzstan: • Potential stable GDP growth to 6%; • Increase in remittances from labour migrants (in 2012 amounted up to 29% of GDP of Kyrgyzstan); • Improvement of the investment attractiveness of Kyrgyzstan.