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Marginal Health Damages of NO x Emissions: An Application of the Adjoint of CMAQ

Marginal Health Damages of NO x Emissions: An Application of the Adjoint of CMAQ . S. Morteza Mesbah , Amir Hakami , Stephan Schott Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada. Outline. Marginal damage Adjoint model for health damage North American domain case study

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Marginal Health Damages of NO x Emissions: An Application of the Adjoint of CMAQ

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  1. Marginal Health Damages ofNOx Emissions: An Application of the Adjoint of CMAQ S. MortezaMesbah, Amir Hakami, Stephan Schott Carleton University, Ottawa, Canada

  2. Outline • Marginal damage • Adjoint model for health damage • North American domain case study • Source-specific MD curves • Policy insight

  3. Marginal damage

  4. Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis • Source-specific damage information • Damage defined as the monetized nationwide (US) mortality due to short-term exposure to ozone (Pappin and Hakami, 2013). • US Mortality

  5. Marginal Damage Estimation • Change in concentration • Concentration response factor • Baseline mortality • Population • Value of statistical life

  6. Case Study • Domain: continental US, 36 km grid resolution, 34 vertical layers • Episode: May 1st to Sept. 30th of 2007 • Adjoint runs for different emission reduction scenarios: • 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%, 100 % reduction in: • Mobile sources • Point sources • Anthropogenic sources

  7. MDs • MD of $20k indicates that 1 ton of emission causes $20k damage • Emission weighted average MDs • weighted by: • Mobile source emissions (MBL MDs) • Point source emissions (PNT MDs)

  8. PNT MDs for PNT Reduction 80% Reduction 40% Reduction Baseline

  9. MBL MDs for MBL Reduction 80% Reduction 40% Reduction Baseline

  10. MBL MDs for ANT Reduction 80% Reduction 40% Reduction Baseline

  11. PNT MDs • PNT Reduction MBL Reduction • ANT Reduction MDs ($1000/ton)

  12. MBL MDs • PNT Reduction MBL Reduction MDs ($1000/ton)

  13. Emission Targets?

  14. Conclusions • Adjoint is an efficient tool for source-specific MD estimation • MDs vary significantly by location • Ozone based NOx MD curves are negatively slopped • MDs in large cities change sign with emission reductions • Further emission reduction is required

  15. Questions? Thank-you

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