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CONFERENCE TRANSITIONS IN THE ARAB WORLD : KEY LESSONS FROM THE MOROCCAN MODEL

CONFERENCE TRANSITIONS IN THE ARAB WORLD : KEY LESSONS FROM THE MOROCCAN MODEL MOHAMMED TAWFIK MOULINE DIRECTOR GENERAL OF THE ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES SHANGHAI, March 9th, 2012 THE SHANGHAI SOCIAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION. Summary.

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CONFERENCE TRANSITIONS IN THE ARAB WORLD : KEY LESSONS FROM THE MOROCCAN MODEL

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  1. CONFERENCE TRANSITIONS IN THE ARAB WORLD : KEY LESSONS FROM THE MOROCCAN MODEL MOHAMMED TAWFIK MOULINE DIRECTOR GENERAL OF THE ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES SHANGHAI, March 9th, 2012 THE SHANGHAI SOCIAL SCIENCE ASSOCIATION

  2. Summary • The ArabSpring, multiple factors and contrastingevolutions 1.1. The factorsbehind the ArabSpring 1.2. Keys to understanding the currentprocesses in the Arab world 1.3. Someoutcomes of the ArabSpring • Morocco in the context of the ArabSpring 2.1. The Basis of the Moroccan model 2.2.The constitutionalreform : A catalyst for acceleratingMorocco’sdevelopmenttrajectory 2.3.Some challenges to beaddressed to succeed in the constitutionalreform

  3. 1. The ArabSpring, multiple factors and contrastingevolutions

  4. The factorsbehind the ArabSpring The events of the ArabSpringsurprised by the exceptional scale of their political consequences as well as the quickness and the unpredictability of their spread. These events were fed by several evolutions : On the internallevel : Unsustainability of the fallenregimes, where the political system did not allow the emergence of the Rule of Law and where the margins of freedom were reduced or non-existent. Economicmarginalization of large segments of the population due to the rise of unemployment and social inequalities. On the externallevel: The global economiccrisisworsening social situation of the youth and the deprived segments of the population. It exposed the regimes inability to restore the macroeconomic balances. Ineffectiveness of the Islamistthreatas a justification to maintainingauthoritarianregimes. The Al-Qaeda threat has no longer the samereasonance. Recentintransigence of the international communitytowards dictatorial regimes.

  5. Regulations and social order Morocco stands out frommanyArab countries by its more fragmented and lessauthoritarian social regulations. Personalized and authoritarian social order Open social order Personnalized and decentralized social regulations Source: IPD 2009

  6. Keys to understanding the currentprocesses in the Arab world (1/2) In Tunisia, the high concentration of power, the weakness of civil society and the non-involvement of citizens in public affairs and politics, the high level of unemployment, particularly among the youth, and social inequalities have fueled a climate of tensions and distrust regarding official institutions. In Egypt, like in Tunisia, the claims were both social and political. The relatively peaceful demonstrations and the neutrality of the Egyptian army, the largest in the Arab world, were key factors in the process of overthrowing Mubarak’s regime. In Libya, the destabilization affected the tribal alliance system that brought Qadhafi’s tribe to power. Demands for political reforms have quickly shifted to an armed insurrection and then to a civil war. Although the Libyan State held sufficient financial resources to face the popular protests, claims went far beyond simple social demands. In Yemen, social protestsled to the signing of an agreement negotiated by the Gulf monarchies allowing the departure of President Saleh. Presidential elections were held on February 21st , 2012.

  7. Keys to understanding the currentprocesses in the Arab world (2/2) In Syria, the population is a mosaic of ethnic and sectarian communities with fluctuating relations. Also, many disputes inherited from the past and maintained by the Baathist regime which established the rule of the Alawite minority (10% of the population), have led to protests from the country's Sunni majority. The protest movement were violently repressed by Assad’s regime. In Algeria, the popular protests are not new as there have been ongoing protests since 2001. All the socioeconomic and political ingredients are present, but because of the Algerian people’s trauma since the civil war of the 1990s and the experience of the army and police in dealing with riots, the protest movement has been relatively contained since April 2011. In Bahrain, internal conflicts between the Sunni minority and the Shia majority have lasted for decades. However, the economic crisis that had a major impact on the country, which does not depend on oil revenues, has exacerbated the internal tensions. Saudi Arabia and the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council have deployed their armed forces to help the kingdom contain the popular uprisings. The protests resumed in January 2012. In Jordan, the protests began in January 2011 but did not affect the King Abdullah II, who carried out changes in the government to accelerate the reforms, with the priority being given to the fight against corruption and the high cost of living.

  8. Someoutcomes of the ArabSpring (1/2) Common outcomes : The events of the Arab Spring resulted in outcomes that are common to several Arab countries where the regime has fallen : Fundamental psychological change associated with the collapse of the wall of fear. Strong popular demands that must be echoed in the implemented public policies. Emergence of a democratic process leading to elections considered credible by the international community. Rise to power of new elites who share an Islamic background, while claiming their aspiration for modernity.  

  9. Someoutcomes of the ArabSpring (2/2) Specificoutcomes : In Egypt, the main political issue lies on the scope of powersthat the Egyptianarmywillconcede to the parliament. In Libya, the state is embryonic and the country is to be rebuilt. Sporadic fightings, so far of low intensity, continue between different tribes and militias previously united against Qadhafi. In Yemen, thereis a fearthatthe already fragile state collapses as itsheltersterrorist groups. In Syria, the conflict, gaining international momentum, could have destabilizing consequences for the entire region.

  10. 2.Morocco in the context of the ArabSpring

  11. The basis of the Moroccan Model The widespread and violent popular protests spared Morocco because of its particular characteristics in the MENA region: Morocco is a thousand-year-old monarchy comforted by a large popular legitimacy. The King, Head of State and Commander of the Faithful, embodies the powers conferred by the Constitution, Morocco opted very early, for political pluralism anda balanced market economy. Early on, Morocco has fostered the emergence and the development of non-governmental actors (trade unions, media, civil society, ...). From the 90s on, a national reconciliation process has been initiated, highly supported by various actors of the civil society in order to exhume the past and to conceive the future with better prospects.

  12. The constitutionalreform : A catalyst for acceleratingMorocco’sdevelopmenttrajectory Unique in the Arab World, the constitutional reform is the result of a process of economic, political and social reforms that have been undertaken since the early 1980s. Moroccans overwhelmingly voted in favor of the Constitution after a referendum in July 2011 with a turnout of over 75%. The main contributions of the new Constitution : The plurality of the Moroccan identity at the heart of which lies the Amazigh identity as a common heritage is constitutionally recognized, Strengthening of the Rule of Law and the institutions. Strengthening of the powers of the Head of the Government, who is freely elected. Strengthening the role played by political parties as part of an effective pluralism. Increasing the moral standards of public life Consolidation of a clear and balanced separation of powers. Constitutionalisation of bodies in charge of human rights and protecting freedoms. Moreover, the environment and the security are added to the fundamental rights Consecration of the advanced regionalization process serving the regional competitiveness and the decrease of inequalities.

  13. Legislative Elections of 2011 The new Constitution wasfollowed by legislativeelectionsin November 2011: victory of the PJD (Party for Justice and Devlopement) which has an islamic background. Theseelectionsfullfilled the shift from a consensualpolitical transition to a transition through the vote.

  14. The constitutionalreform : The challenge of implementation Implementation of the principles and mechanisms introduced by the Constitution through several organic laws that remain to be drafted. These laws should strengthen the new powers and attributions of the government, the parliament and the judiciary. Strengthening governance of public policies for greater efficiency of the reforms. To support the constitutional reform, special attention should be paid to the very urgent issues, notably the fight against inequalities and youth unemployment.

  15. Morocco’sassets to succeed in the constitutionalreform A strong national sense of belonging, A cultural, ethnic and linguistic diversity recognized by the constitution Strong family ties which constitutes the main basis of the social bond A greater openness as a strategic and irreversible choice

  16. Important elementsdefining the fact of beingMoroccon, according to the respondents Strongsense of national belonging Source: IRES

  17. Cultural and linguisticdiversity not viewed as a threat Differences that are most likely to disrupt social cohesion

  18. Percentage of respondents Intensity of various social bonds Verystrongfamily bonds Source: IRES

  19. Some obstacles to overcome in order to release the country’sdevelopmentpotential A weak political bond that translates into a relatively low institutional confidence, Fragmentation of the political landscape, although there is a slight attenuation compared to 2007 parliamentary elections, Some concerns in terms of the levels of corruption and socioeconomic inequalities, Strengthening of traditional and institutional solidarities.

  20. Four parties are presentat the government: PJD, PI, MP, PPS, thatis 55% of the parliamentseats. Decline of the politicallandscape fragmentation Five parties are presentat the government : PI, MP, RNI, USFP, PPS, thatis 57,5% of the parliamentseats.

  21. Renewedinterest for the elections Source: IRES The July 2011 constitutional change and the ensuingearlyelections in Novemberweremarked by a renewedinterest in Moroccanpolitics.

  22. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION www.ires.ma

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