Michigan Statewide

1. Michigan Statewide Key findings from a statewide survey of 600 registered voters in Michigan, conducted October 26-27, 2011. Neil Newhouse • Partner Robert Blizzard • Vice President

2. Michigan State Map by Media Market Northern DMAs(9%) Flint (12%) Grand Rapids (19%) Detroit (SE) (49%) Other (10%)

3. The Political Environment

4. Generally speaking, would you say that things in Michigan are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Michiganders began the year with an optimistic outlook, but now believe things are once again off on the wrong track. *Data from a statewide survey of 600 likely voters in Michigan, conducted by EPIC/MRA August 13-16, 2011. -68 -77 -53 -50 +9 -6 -18 -23 -41 RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT RD WT

5. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Rick Snyder is doing as Governor? Governor Snyder’s job approval is inverted, with Independent voters’ attitudes mirroring those statewide. Total By Party -12 +37 -12 -55 56% Strongly 34% Strongly 35% Strongly 26% Strongly 13% Strongly 15% Strongly 10% Strongly Approve Disapp Approve Disapp Approve Disapp Approve Disapp

6. Do you approve or disapprove of the job that the state legislature is doing in Lansing? A majority of voters also disapprove of the job the state legislature is doing. Total By Party -27 +14 -37 -48 43% Strongly 36% Strongly 32% Strongly 13% Strongly 5% Strongly 8% Strongly 4% Strongly Approve Disapp Approve Disapp Approve Disapp Approve Disapp

7. By Party Democrats have a modest lead on the 2012 “generic ballot.” Now, thinking about the November 2012 election, if the election for State Representative were being held today, for whom would you vote ... the Republican candidate ...or... the Democratic candidate? Total -5 +83 +2 -81 GOP DEM Und GOP Und GOP DEM Und DEM Und

8. State Legislature Generic Ballot: By Media Market The generic GOP’er does best in the Flint and Grand Rapids markets. -19 +10 +24 -22 +8 GOP DEM Und GOP DEM Und GOP DEM Und GOP DEM Und GOP DEM Und

9. Issues Facing the State

10. Other than improving the economy/jobs, voters believe improving education should be the top priority for the Governor and state legislature. Besides improving the state’s economy and bringing jobs to the state, which TWO of the following issues do you believe should be the top priorities for the Governor and the state legislature? % First Choice % Combined Choice Improving education Controlling the cost of health care and prescription drugs Holding down the growth of state spending Improving the state’s roads, bridges and highways Holding the line on taxes Protecting the environment

11. Republican voters are much more concerned with slowing the growth of government spending and holding the line on taxes.

12. Total By Party Now, please tell me whether you would rate each of the following as excellent, good, only fair, or poor... The quality of your local public schools While voters indicate improving education should be the top priority, a majority of voters rate the quality of local public schools as excellent or good. +17 +40 +14 -0- Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair

13. Voters across the state’s media markets agree. By Media Market Now, please tell me whether you would rate each of the following as excellent, good, only fair, or poor... The quality of your local public schools +13 +4 +33 +27 +7 Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair

14. Now, please tell me whether you would rate each of the following as excellent, good, only fair, or poor... The level of traffic and congestion in your area Total Voters outside of the Detroit market seem pretty satisfied with the level of traffic and congestion in their area. By Media Market -0- -30 +16 +21 +56 +38 Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair

15. Total By Party Now, please tell me whether you would rate each of the following as excellent, good, only fair, or poor... The condition of the state’s roads, bridges and highways However, voters across Michigan rate the condition of the state’s roads, bridges and highways as only “fair/poor,” with 51% rating them as “poor.” -73 -60 -74 -83 58% Poor 52% Poor 51% Poor 44% Poor Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair Poor/ Fair Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good

16. By Media Market Now, please tell me whether you would rate each of the following as excellent, good, only fair, or poor... The condition of the state’s roads, bridges and highways And, there is little difference in voters’ attitudes by media market. -77 -80 -71 -54 -67 58% Poor 53% Poor 49% Poor 48% Poor 37% Poor Poor/ Fair Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair Excl/ Good Poor/ Fair

17. Transportation Issues

18. Compared with other issues that the Governor and state legislature need to address, how high of a priority do you think Michigan’s elected officials should place on fixing the state’s roads, bridges and highways? Fully 81% of Michigan voters believe that fixing the state’s roads, bridges and highways should be a high priority of the Governor and state legislature. 81% Not High at all of a Priority Somewhat High Priority Very High Priority Not too high of a Priority Top Priority

19. Compared with other issues that the Governor and state legislature need to address, how high of a priority do you think Michigan’s elected officials should place on fixing the state’s roads, bridges and highways? Voters across party lines agree. By Party +45 +61 +78 Top/High/ Somewhat Top/High/ Somewhat Top/High/ Somewhat Not High Not High Not High

20. By Media Market And, there is little difference in attitudes by media market. Compared with other issues that the Governor and state legislature need to address, how high of a priority do you think Michigan’s elected officials should place on fixing the state’s roads, bridges and highways? +69 +56 +52 +67 +56 Top/ High/ Smwt Top/ High/ Smwt Top/ High/ Smwt Top/ High/ Smwt Top/ High/ Smwt Not High Not High Not High Not High Not High

21. Total By Party Now as you may know, transportation projects in Michigan are funded by the state’s gas tax, vehicle registration fees, and other transportation related taxes and fees. Based on what you know now, do you believe that Michigan has enough money to safely maintain the state’s roads, bridges and highways? Michigan voters are pretty divided on whether the state has enough money to maintain the state’s roads, bridges and highways. +4 +8 +3 +1 Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No

22. Transportation Improvement Proposal

23. The potential transportation improvement proposal was asked in two ways... Would you favor or oppose a proposal that would generate $1.4 billion dollars in additional revenue for the state to spend on transportation improvements that was funded by increasing the state’s vehicle registration fees, and eliminating the 19 cents per gallon state gas tax and replacing it with a new 10% state tax on oil companies? Now, as you may know, the state’s gas tax is 19 cents a gallon, and on average Michigan car owners pay an annual car registration fee of $100... ...or... Would you favor or oppose a proposal that would generate $1.4 billion dollars in additional revenue for the state to spend on transportation improvements that was funded by increasing the state’s vehicle registration fees, and eliminating the 19 cents per gallon state gas tax and replacing it with a new 10% state tax on gasoline wholesalers?

24. Would you favor or oppose a proposal . . . 10% state tax on oil companies Voters are more likely to support the proposal if the tax is on “oil companies” rather than “gasoline wholesalers.” Would you favor or oppose a proposal . . . 10% state tax on gasoline wholesalers *Asked among Sample A, n=300 *Asked among Sample B, n=300 +14 -10 32% Strongly 23% Strongly 21% Strongly 17% Strongly Favor Oppose Favor Oppose

25. Tax on Gas Wholesalers: By Media Market The “tax on oil companies” approach tests better across the state’s media markets. . . Tax on Oil Companies: By Media Market +13 +2 +12 +41 +18 Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp -10 -7 -7 -31 +3 Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp

26. *Asked among Sample B, n=300 And, across party lines. Tax on Gasoline Wholesalers: By Party *Asked among Sample A, n=300 Tax on Oil Companies: By Party +8 +12 +24 -7 -23 +4 38% Strgly 30% Strgly 27% Strgly 26% Strgly 22% Strgly 22% Strgly 21% Strgly 21% Strgly 20% Strgly 19% Strgly 14% Strgly 16% Strgly Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp Fav Opp

27. *Asked among Sample B, n=300 *Asked among Sample A, n=300 Tax on Gasoline Wholesalers: By Tea Party Support In fact, Tea Party supporters actually favor the proposal that includes the tax on “oil companies.” Tax on Oil Companies: By Tea Party Support +7 +25 -6 -18 36% Strongly 31% Strongly 26% Strongly 22% Strongly 22% Strongly 21% Strongly 20% Strongly 16% Strongly Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose Favor Oppose

28. And, what are some of the most important reasons why you would favor increasing the state’s vehicle registration fees, and replacing the 19 cents/gallon gas tax with a 10% tax on oil companies? The primary reason voters indicate they would support this proposal is because they believe it will save them money. Many of these “support” voters express frustration over the difficulty they are having paying their bills, noting that it is difficult to afford to drive to work or school because of the state’s 19 cent gas tax. Moreover, these voters believe that eliminating the state’s gas tax will help middle class families, as Michigan would then have similar gas prices as surrounding states. Along these lines, some “support” voters say they would rather pay an increased yearly registration fee than be hit at the pump every time they fill up their car. These voters like the “fairness” of this proposal because all drivers are paying the higher registration fee and oil companies would be paying a state tax. While there are several responses from voters who say oil companies have too much money and need to pay their fair share, it should be noted that there is also some concern that these oil companies will just pass the new tax on to consumers.

29. And, what are some of the most important reasons why you would favor increasing the state’s vehicle registration fees, and replacing the 19 cents/gallon gas tax with a 10% tax on oil companies? There is also a strong sentiment among these “support” voters that more revenue is needed to improve transportation as many express concern over the road conditions and the safety of drivers in the winter. In addition, some voters believe this proposal would generate more construction jobs, potentially boosting the state’s economy and reducing unemployment.

30. Sample Comments – Favor increasing registration fees and replacing gas tax with tax on oil companies It'd bring in the revenue that they'd need to fix those roads and bridges. Because I can't afford for them to raise my gas taxes anymore for one. Another is basically most people own only one car and if they own more than that I guess it's fair game. They have to get the money from somewhere and taxes aren't going to be the answer I do not think. Just to get a break at the pump. The gas is expensive. The highways are in bad shape. We pay more money in gas than almost any other state. For a while we were more expensive than California. Because I think the tax burden should be shifted more to the oil companies. But they should not allow the oil companies put the cost back to the consumers price for the gallon of gasoline so to speak. I'd rather pay once a year fees instead of paying it at the pump. I think it's fair and I think they need the additional revenue. For the roads and bridges, for starters. It's apparent that there are so many bridges that need major repair work. The current system is not developing additional revenue to take care of it. Just to save money.

31. Sample Comments – Favor increasing registration fees and replacing gas tax with tax on oil companies Because it would spend some money on the infrastructure and get some construction jobs going. Apparently it sounds like it would reduce cost to me. If the oil companies are paying, that means I don't have to. I think that changing it from a gas tax to something tied to registrations is easier to keep the money directly funding the roads and you know exactly how much money is going in there. Bring down the gas price. Putting the tax where it should be on the oil companies. I'd be willing to pay a little bit more for in registration for that. It would bring down the cost of gas. It would hopefully use the money correctly, and do what needs to be done to the roads so we aren't putting more wear and tear on our cars than necessary. I spend more on maintaining my ball joints and my suspension on my car and my wheels and tires than I would a hundred dollars a year to pay for improved roads. It would be nice to have more better and reliable public transportation in the state. Because I think the oil companies are making too much money and why should we be paying it, they should be paying it.

32. And, what are some of the most important reasons why you would oppose increasing the state’s vehicle registration fees, and replacing the 19 cents/gallon gas tax with a 10% tax on oil companies? The most common reason voters give for opposing this proposal is that they believe they will have to pay more. Many of these “oppose” voters believe the vehicle registration fee is already too expensive, noting that the new rate will put a strain on their already-thin pocketbooks. (This is especially the case among voters who have multiple vehicles.) Further, with the elimination of the gas tax on consumers, these “oppose” voters express concern that oil companies will just pass the new 10% tax on to Michigan’s drivers through increased prices at the pump. These voters believe that once the new tax is passed on to them, they will have to pay both the higher registration fee AND higher gas prices – causing them to pay more than they currently do.

33. And, what are some of the most important reasons why you would oppose increasing the state’s vehicle registration fees, and replacing the 19 cents/gallon gas tax with a 10% tax on oil companies? Distrust in how the state government spends money is also one of the key issues among these “oppose” voters. These voters question the state government’s spending priorities, and they feel the revenue raised may be wastefully spent instead of going to much-needed transportation improvements. Further, many believe the state government already has enough money to fund road construction, but it is being misallocated and spent on poorly constructed road work. Along these lines, there is some concern among voters that the state government will reinstate the gas taxes once they need more funds or that this proposal will contain loopholes or hidden taxes.

34. Sample Comments – Oppose increasing registration fees and replacing gas tax with tax on oil companies Because I don't believe the taxes would stay down. They might go down for a while, but then they'd find some reason to hike them back up. Then we'd have higher registration fees for our vehicles at the end of the year or our birthday or whenever we have to renew them and then they'll find some reason to jack up the gas prices. They'll pass it on to the consumer. It's just going to come out in the price anyway, we're still going to be paying for it. Because there are always loopholes in everything so you don't really know what they are going to add on to it after or what they're going to do with it. Well I just don't trust politicians. I think now it's pretty fair, the more you drive, the more you pay. It's the shifting of the tax. If you're going to tax the oil companies, then they're just going to raise the price of gas. I think our registration fees are high enough. People can learn to drive less. I just don't have faith in the government that the money would be directed correctly and it would be put to use like they say it would be. It’s just they're going to raise prices and cut it other places and in my opinion it's going to end up being a wash and our roads still would not be any better than they are now.

35. Sample Comments – Oppose increasing registration fees and replacing gas tax with tax on oil companies It's a ten percent increase on the oil and gas company that means that there's going to be an additional increase to us, not only because we have an increase in our registration but then ten percent increase to them means we end up getting another increase so it's like we get caught on the back end. Basically what that boils down to is you're just going to raise registration fees so people aren't going to register vehicles. If you take the tax off at the pump and put it on the registration, the only people that are paying for the taxes are people that have cars that are registered in Michigan. Because when they were saying it could double our registration, we have three vehicles. That's six hundred dollars a year. I think double, that's a big chunk. We're just skating by right now as it is, so to double car plates would be kind of brutal. I don't want to pay anymore money to government and I don't want government spending any more money. I want them to manage the money that they bring in effectively and efficiently which seems to be a problem especially in Michigan. The people who have jobs are now driving twice to three times as far as they used to for their jobs and they can't afford it.

36. And, what are some of the most important reasons why you would favor increasing the state’s vehicle registration fees, and replacing the 19 cents/gallon gas tax with a 10% tax on gasoline wholesalers? While most voters support the “tax on oil companies” proposal to save money, those who favor the proposal that includes “gasoline wholesalers” cite that increased revenue to help improve transportation and the economy is the primary reason for their support. Many of these voters express their frustration with the subpar quality of Michigan’s roads and tie the issue to the high cost of frequent car repairs. However, with the state facing a difficult economy, there is a resounding sense that something needs to get done to get people back to work and to lower gas prices. Several of these “support” voters link an increase in revenue with putting more people back to work and, in turn, improving the quality of the state’s infrastructure.

37. And, what are some of the most important reasons why you would favor increasing the state’s vehicle registration fees, and replacing the 19 cents/gallon gas tax with a 10% tax on gasoline wholesalers? Some of these “support” voters express their preference to pay a higher once-a-year vehicle registration fee instead of paying for higher gas prices every time they fill their tank. These voters support this part of the proposal in order to make one larger payment once a year, but also to ensure that every driver, regardless of the amount of miles driven, pays a fair share towards the state’s infrastructure.

38. Sample Comments – Favor increasing registration fees and replacing gas tax with tax on gasoline wholesalers It will put a lot of people to work in terms of repairing the highways. I think that with better roads that will make it more affordable for people to operate their vehicles and for businesses to operate. We've got to get this economy moving again and we need jobs and if we're working on our roads, that creates jobs. The conditions of the roads. The amount you're paying in car repairs will exceed the conditions if you can fix the roads. Because of the bad state of the roads. I mean there's just not enough money to keep the service of the roads in good repair at all. They've been really deteriorating in the last five years. I really, really haven't thought about it so I don't know that much about that. I think it’s more fair and it's going to bring in more money that we need. Our roads are hurting, so we need more money to fix them up. We make a lot of money of off tourism and I think that's important to make sure the roads are good. Because we would pay a one time fee, so to speak, with the registration, as opposed to every time you're filling up your gas tank you're paying that fee. I see most of Michigan is out of work and if you keep increasing gas prices, people aren't going to have the money to even think about going to look for a job.

39. Sample Comments – Favor increasing registration fees and replacing gas tax with tax on gasoline wholesalers It would provide funding. Hopefully it would be directed directly to roads and not siphoned off into the general funds. I think people are getting taxed enough. I think the wholesalers ought to pay for it really. You can see every day you look at the stock market, the fluctuation of the oil prices going up and down. The roads can be improved, you need the money to do it, you got to get the money from somewhere. I think it's going to create jobs. I think it's going to create safer roads. I think it's going to affect every one. It's something that could benefit everyone in the state. The state simply doesn't have enough money to maintain the roads and bridges. I think in terms of infrastructure and improving the business climate in Michigan that's very important. Because it will get the state more money to work with than with the way the gas prices fluctuate, it will stabilize the taxes more. Because gas prices are very high as they stand right now and I think the wholesalers are the ones that can afford to pay those more than the average person. The roads were improved it would create jobs. It would help traffic flow.

40. And, what are some of the most important reasons why you would oppose increasing the state’s vehicle registration fees, and replacing the 19 cents/gallon gas tax with a 10% tax on gasoline wholesalers? Voters who express opposition to this proposal are most likely to point out the already high costs of registration fees in the state of Michigan. Many of these “oppose” voters mention how they personally own more than one car and voice frustration with having to pay higher annual prices to maintain their multiple registrations. Along these lines, many “oppose” respondents believe that the proposal would disproportionately affect lower income drivers and those who drive fewer miles. Other “oppose” voters voice their belief that regardless of how the tax rate is shifted, gasoline wholesalers will find a way to pass the costs on to consumers. Many of these voters say that they don’t think gas prices will drop regardless of what stage in the process gasoline is taxed.

41. And, what are some of the most important reasons why you would oppose increasing the state’s vehicle registration fees, and replacing the 19 cents/gallon gas tax with a 10% tax on gasoline wholesalers? Further, as was a concern among those who would oppose the proposal that included “oil companies,” these voters also point out that the problem isn’t the amount of money that the state is taking in to maintain roads and bridges, but rather the inefficiencies and irresponsibility of the Michigan government in allocating the funding.

42. Sample Comments – Oppose increasing registration fees and replacing gas tax with tax on gasoline wholesalers If it's going to raise more revenue it's going to cost me more money. Wholesalers aren't going to eat the costs, they're going to have to pass it on. We have a number of vehicles on the road. It wouldn't be fair for people who have more than one vehicle. Because somebody that has a higher income is going to pay the same to register their car as somebody that earns very little. The additional cost of $120 per year is a lot more for some people than others. I don't think the problems with the roads and infrastructure are monetary related. I think it's more the way they do business herein Michigan. People can't afford more taxes. They can't afford higher vehicle registration prices. Because I think now, the people that drive more pay more in taxes because they use more gasoline. The poor guy that doesn't drive a lot, why should we put a burden on him. It's going to be based more on who can afford to drive than it is now. Let the people who use the roads pay for them. Because I drive a long ways to work and ten percent will probably add up to more than nineteen cents. Because it raises taxes. Ten percent would be, right now, thirty five cents a gallon per gasoline. They've jacked up my registration fee and raised the taxes on gasoline.

43. Sample Comments – Oppose increasing registration fees and replacing gas tax with tax on gasoline wholesalers Either way, if you put it on the wholesalers they're going to raise gas prices anyway. If you raise the gas tax I can't afford pay any more for gas as it is. Anything that they would do, it's going to all be passed on to the consumer, the taxes. If they put it on the company we wind up paying it anyway. Any time any business has to increase their cost, taxes go up on that business and it's passed onto the consumer. The tax would just get right back to us. I mean, taxing the producers, still taxes us . The price just keeps going up. It doesn't take care of anything. We don't need to be taxed anymore. I think the registration fee is too high at this point. I think it shouldn't be determined on the value of the car, but the age of the car. Because they're just trying to get more money. They just want more money. It's just the state wanting more money, they can't seem to use what they've got wisely. It doesn't accomplish anything. Either way, the end user is going to pay for the tax. If someone else gets taxed in the production line, what do you think? he's going to absorb the tax and not pass it on to whoever buys the item later. You can't afford to do that in business. It would be a burden to Michigan citizens, not commercial retailers.

44. By Party By Tea Party Support When voters are asked if they would be more likely to support a State Legislator who supported this proposal in the next election, it’s a “wash”. Total If you knew that your State Legislator supported this proposal, would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for them in the next election? +6 +10 -4 +14 +1 +2 24% Mch 24% Mch 18% Mch 18% Mch 12% Mch 15% Mch 12% Mch 11% Mch 11% Mch 10% Mch 10% Mch 8% Mch More Less More Less More Less More Less More Less More Less

45. If you knew that your State Legislator supported this proposal, would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for them in the next election? And, regardless of which proposal language voters hear, this is just not a polarizing issue for voters (note the low intensity). “Taxing Gasoline Wholesalers” “Taxing Oil Companies” *Asked among Sample A, n=300 *Asked among Sample B, n=300 +11 +1 21% Much 15% Much 12% Much 9% Much More Likely Less Likely More Likely Less Likely

46. Messaging

47. We framed a potential debate over this issue in the following way... Some people say that their state legislator SHOULD support this proposal because while no one likes to pay more, no one wants bridges falling down. Which of the following do you agree with more… ...or... Some people say that their state legislator SHOULD NOT support this proposal because we should not raise any taxes right now, no matter what they are for.

48. Legislator Should Support Proposal vs. Should Not Support Proposal After hearing from both sides, voters are evenly divided. Total By Party +1 -1 -1 +6 Should Support Should Not Sprt Should Support Should Not Sprt Should Support Should Not Sprt Should Support Should Not Sprt

49. Legislator Should Support Proposal vs. Should Not Support Proposal: By Tea Party Support Tea Party supporters/opponents take different sides on this issue. -16 +16 Should Not Support Should Not Support Should Support Should Support

50. And, if you knew that an independent study shows that this proposal would cost Michigan drivers an additional ten dollars a month, would you be more likely or less likely to support this proposal for transportation improvements in the state? Learning this proposal would cost drivers an additional $10 a month makes voters less likely to support it, though perhaps less so than would be expected. Total By Party -10 -12 -14 -3 32% Much 30% Much 29% Much 28% Much 15% Much 18% Much 15% Much 12% Much More Likely Less Likely More Likely Less Likely More Likely Less Likely More Likely Less Likely