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COSMO-RU operational verification in Russia using VERSUS2

This operational verification study in Russia examines errors in the COSMO-RU model for MSLP and T2m, highlighting snow melting schemes, suspect observations, and data analysis for stations in European Russia.

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COSMO-RU operational verification in Russia using VERSUS2

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  1. COSMO-RU operational verification in Russiausing VERSUS2 Anastasia Bundel and Anatoly Muravyev Roshydromet Rome, 5 September 2011

  2. COSMO-RU7 - basic version forEuropean Russia

  3. MSLP MAM2011 errors NO suspect observation Suspect observation <=10 hPa Up to 900! cases at some steps (~5%) Suspect observation <=12 hPa Up to 200 cases at some steps (~1%)

  4. Station analysis of suspect observations of MSLP

  5. T2m MAM2011, all Russian stations - big errors

  6. T2m MAM2011 time series, all Russian Stations Snow melting period – Big errors New snow melting scheme (Rozinkina and Kazakova) – Improvement!

  7. T2m,station Krasnaya Polyana (Sochi region) Suspect observations? Suspect observations are not present in the report on suspect observations. Even if the suspect observation is set to <=3 degrees C, it does not influence the results

  8. COSMO-RU2.2:Central Russia (Moscow region) and Southern Russia (Sochi region). Comparison with COSMO-RU7

  9. T2m COSMORU 2.2 km, Sochi, station Krasnaya Polyana Bad model value It cannot be deleted from GUI, only manually from MySQL.

  10. T2m COSMO-RU 2.2 and 7 km, Sochi, station Krasnaya Polyana 2.2 km – Less overestimating 7 km

  11. T2m in COSMO-RU 7 and 2.2 km, Krasnaya Polyana Method: 1) nearest point 3D optimized ! COSMO-RU 2.2 km is better than COSMO-RU 7 km for Krasnaya Polyana

  12. Wind speed in COSMO-RU 2.2 and 7 km, Krasnaya Polyana

  13. T2m in COSMO-RU 7 and 2.2 km, Moscow Method: 1) nearest point 3D optimized ! COSMO-RU 2.2 km RMSE is even slightly higher than that of COSMO-RU 7 km for Moscow

  14. Our problems with VERSUS and desirable features • Function Suspect observations for T2m does not influence the result • I cannot delete a time series • I cannot delete the data from GUI in Data Availability > Delete • Forecast grib data can be found in Data Availability only the first time after logging in VERSUS GUI • A possibility to delete verifications from several models at a time would be useful • A possibility to plot a time series of several models would be useful

  15. Conclusions and Plans • A new snow-melting scheme developed by Rozinkina and Kazakova considerably improves T2m during the snow melting period. • COSMO-RU 2.2 km for the Sochi region (Krasnaya Polyana) provides better T2m forecasts, less bias in wind speed, but slightly worse wind speed RMSE compared to the 7-km version. • COSMO-RU 2.2 km for Moscow provides higher T2m RMSE compared to the 7-km version. • 6-h precipitation and cloud observation data will be soon added. Then, conditional verification for Russia will be made routinely. • Weather type classification will be urgently needed for the Sochi region.

  16. Thank you for your attention!

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