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Operational Verification at HNMS. Flora Gofa. WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010. Operational Use of VERSUS since August 2009 for most verification activities at HNMS Forecast models COSMOGR 7 & 3km ECMWF model COSMO ensemble (SREPS) Verification Standard Conditional Cross model
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Operational Verification at HNMS Flora Gofa WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
Operational Use of VERSUS since August 2009 for most verification activities at HNMS Forecast models COSMOGR 7 & 3km ECMWF model COSMO ensemble (SREPS) Verification Standard Conditional Cross model WDV Not yet in use Upper air verification 00 &12 UTC WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
Add COSMOGR and high res graph… COSMOGRhr: 0.02deg COSMOGR: 0.0625deg COSMOGR Grid Area WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
Temp 2m - 7km vs 3km Fall Winter Spring Summer Underestimation of Temp, mainly in winter error 2-2.5 deg, worse with 7km by 0.5 Clear diurnal cycle WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
Wind Speed - 7km vs 3km Fall Winter Spring Summer Overestimation of wind (00,24), less in summer 2-2.5deg bias, higher in winter similar attitude of 2 models WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
2m Temp WINTER Wind Speed Underestimation of Temp during midday hours, overetimation of wind, large error in analysis field WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
2m Temp Wind Speed SUMMER WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
DewP Temp - 7km vs 3km Fall Winter Spring Summer Underestimation of DewT Bias 2.5-3deg, lower in the winter WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
Cloud Cover - 7km vs 3km Fall Winter Spring Summer Similar error for all seasons but summer and for both models WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
12h Precipitation - 7km vs 3km FALL 70-80% POD , above 50% up to 2mm, drops fast after Higher FAR for HR model WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
12h Precipitation - 7km vs 3km WINTER Lower FAR in the winter for both models WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
12h Precipitation - 7km vs 3km FALL Slight overestimation for lower thresholds <0.5 SImilar ETS for both models WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
12h Precipitation - 7km vs 3km WINTER WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
Change in Point Selection Method 3D optimized 30km radius Higher POD for radius but also higher FAR ? WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
Change in Point Selection Method 3D optimized 30km radius Overestimation of small amount of rain with rdius method Similar ETS
WAM Conditional Verification Extracting information for relevant performance of weather parameters The input from modelers and forecasters is necessary for identifying and testing hypotheses. WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
Temp in overcast conditions Fall Winter Spring Summer
Temp in clear sky conditions Fall Winter Spring Summer
Temp in ‘calm’ conditions Fall Winter Spring Summer WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
Temp in ‘high wind’ conditions Fall Winter Spring Summer WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
Cross Model COSMOGR-ECMWF Annual Temp DP Temp Wind Sp MSLP RMSE lower for COSMO - Temp and wind, higher for MSLP and same for DewP Both underestimate Temp COSMO undersetimate DewP WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
12h Precipitation – Annual ECMWF COSMO Higher POD and FAR for ECMWF for all seasons WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
12h Precipitation – Annual ECMWF COSMO Really strong overestimation of lower preci amounts up to 3mm and lower ETS scores for ECMWF WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
EPS verification Deterministic approach
Post-processed Products Verification Kalman filtering is applied operationally to NWPs at the nearest model location: 2m maximum and minimum temperature forecasts Statistical analysis of maximum and minimum values of these parameters (both modeled and filtered) WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
WAM WAM WAM Wave Atmospheric Model Driven by COSMOGR (7km) output Verification of wave height/direction Future plans: to be done through VERSUS WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
Additional Slides WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
MSLP >mean Fall Winter Spring Summer
MSLP <mean Fall Winter Spring Summer
Temp in high wind conditions Fall Winter Spring Summer WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
12h Precipitation with respect to MSLP WAM WG5 COSMO General Meeting, Moscow 2010
