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Climate, Fire and Air Quality

Climate, Fire and Air Quality. Climate Impacts Group June 1, 2006. Research Team. USDA Forest Service Don McKenzie, Susan O’Neill, Sim Larkin WSU Laboratory for Atmospheric Research Jack Chen, Brian Lamb, Jeremy Avise, Joe Vaughan University of Washington

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Climate, Fire and Air Quality

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  1. Climate, Fire andAir Quality Climate Impacts Group June 1, 2006

  2. Research Team • USDA Forest Service • Don McKenzie, Susan O’Neill, Sim Larkin • WSU Laboratory for Atmospheric Research • Jack Chen, Brian Lamb, Jeremy Avise, Joe Vaughan • University of Washington • Eric Salathe, Cliff Mass, Jeremy Littell, Robert Norheim • National Center for Atmospheric Research • Alex Guenther, Christine Wiedinmyer

  3. Goals and Funding Support • USDA Forest Service HAZE Project • Analyze impacts of Fire Emissions on Regional Haze at Class I Wilderness Areas in terms of a Changing Climate. • EPA Science To Achieve Results (STAR) Project (Grant # RD83096201) • Impact of Global Change on US and Northwest Air Quality, with particular emphasis on the role of fire, biogenic emissions, and Asian emissions.

  4. Class I Wilderness Areas

  5. Visibility Degradation • Fort Collins, CO • Bext = 70/Mm • Occurred twice since 2000 • WinHaze v2.9.6

  6. Left: PCM and MOZART2 global model domain at 2.8o by 2.8o resolution with 18 layers. Right: CMAQ domains at 36 and nested 12 km resolutions with 17 layers Modeling Domains

  7. Modeling Approach Climate/Meteorology Emissions • Air Quality Model • Visibility • Particulate Matter • Ozone Formation • Wet & Dry Deposition

  8. Modeling Approach Climate/Meteorology Emissions Global (IPCC A2) PCM MOZART2 FSB (Fire) MEGAN (Biogenics) NEI/EDGAR (Anthropogenic) Regional MM5 Preprocess for IC/BC MCIP SMOKE CMAQ Air Quality

  9. Modeling ApproachGlobal Scale • Parallel Climate Model (PCM) • Simulations provided by NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Division • Model of Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART) v2 with Aerosols • Simulations provided by Jean-Francois Lamarque (NCAR Atmospheric Chemistry Division) • Provide IC/BC • Asian transport impacts

  10. Modeling ApproachGlobal Scale • IPCC SRES A2 Scenario – Business as Usual • worst projected emissions • heterogeneous world • regional self-reliance • large global population

  11. Modeling Approach Climate/Meteorology Emissions Global (IPCC A2) PCM MOZART2 FSB (Fire) MEGAN (Biogenics) NEI/EDGAR (Anthropogenic) Regional MM5 Preprocess for IC/BC CMAQ MCIP SMOKE Air Quality

  12. Modeling ApproachRegional Scale • Meteorology – MM5 • Emissions • Anthropogenic emissions from EDGAR (future) and 1999 NEI (current) • Fire Emissions from historical db and Fire Scenario Builder (FSB). • Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) • Biogenic emissions, 1-km resolution, multi-scale • Canopy scale model (vs. leaf level) • Accounts for: light, leaf area index, solar angle, temperature, RH, wind speed, soil moisture.

  13. Fire Emissions Modeling MM5 • Use heat released from the fire to calculate plume rise to allocate emissions vertically in the atmosphere. • A portion of the fire emissions are treated as smoldering emissions and allocated to the lowest model layer. • CAPE • NFDRS • Fuel Moistures Fire Scenario Builder • BlueSky-EM • FCCS • EPM SMOKE

  14. FCCS 1-km GIS layer

  15. PM2.5 Emissions from Fire 2045 - 2055 1990 - 1999

  16. MEGAN: Biogenic Emissions • Terpenes – Particulate Matter Formation • Isoprene – Ozone Chemistry

  17. Modeling ApproachRegional Scale • MCIP • SMOKE • Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system • Ozone • Primary emission and secondary formation of Aerosols • Visibility • Gridded eulerian model • Wet and Dry Deposition

  18. Project Status & Details • Simulations • Current Climate 1990 – 1999 • Future Climate 2045 – 2054 • Computing Requirements • Two 20 node LINUX clusters available (WSU, FS) • MM5: 2 TB per decade, 36 km domain • CMAQ: 1 TB per decade, 36 km domain • Status • 36 km current climate done (MM5 and CMAQ) • 36 km future climate – MM5 done, July only for CMAQ • Incorporating FSB Fire Emission Inventory in to future climate case. • Starting MM5 12 km domain simulation (current and future)

  19. MM5 2m TemperatureCurrent and Future Decades

  20. Boundary Condition Analysis

  21. Current Decade EvaluationSurface Ozone Concentrations

  22. Current Decade EvaluationSurface Ozone Concentrations

  23. Preliminary Results:Surface Level Ozone 8-hr Average of 10 July Months Current Climate Future Climate

  24. Preliminary ResultsHours/Month 8-hr O3 > 60 ppb

  25. Thank you!-> Don Susan O’Neill susan.oneill@por.usda.gov

  26. Current Decade Evaluation MM5 2m Temperature

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