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Statistical Data How IHS Markit uses StatsSA’s data

Statistical Data How IHS Markit uses StatsSA’s data. Gerhard Bijker Dec-2017. Who is IHS Markit ?. Industries We Serve. Financial Markets. Energy. Chemical. Automotive. Aerospace, Defense & Security. Engineering & Product Design. Technology, Media & Telecom. Maritime & Trade.

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Statistical Data How IHS Markit uses StatsSA’s data

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  1. Statistical DataHow IHS Markit uses StatsSA’s data Gerhard Bijker Dec-2017

  2. Who is IHS Markit ?

  3. Industries We Serve Financial Markets Energy Chemical Automotive Aerospace, Defense & Security Engineering & Product Design Technology, Media & Telecom Maritime & Trade

  4. Who we serve 35of 50 largest U.S. banks All largest hedge funds 46of the50 largest global asset managers All global investment banks >80% of the Fortune Global 500 24of 25 largest global oil companies 10 largest automobile companies in the world 94of 100 largest U.S. corporates >70% of the Fortune US 1000 All largest global custodians All G20 governments

  5. Energy Today’s global energy landscape is interconnected and dynamic. IHS Markit’s Energy Solutions comprise some of the most extensive information, analytics, insight and advisory services in the world. We deliver oil and gas databases and software, energy supply and demand forecasts, and comprehensive data on transactions at the global and regional market levels. Our renowned energy experts empower leaders worldwide to make their best decisions.

  6. Chemical Almost every industry – from agriculture to retail – relies on chemicals for their production processes. Factors such as market volatility, regulatory pressures, geopolitical risk and shifting end-user demand, mean a deeper understanding of chemical market intelligence is more essential than ever. IHS Markit’s Chemical Solutions provide the cutting-edge research and forecasts necessary to gain a competitive edge. We help industry leaders make confident investment decisions, optimize product portfolios, innovate successfully and operate safely and sustainably.

  7. Automotive The automotive sector is one of the biggest and most competitive markets in the world and relies on in-depth analysis for its daily operations. Our automotive solutions span the entire value chain, from product inception to sales and marketing. We scale our insights to address virtually any domain or enterprise, improving the speed, accuracy and impact of business strategy and tactics.

  8. Aerospace, Defense & Security Aerospace, Defense & Security (AD&S) demands critical intelligence. Over 100 years of industry experience in factors such as shifting defense spending and supply-chain disruption allows IHS Markit to deliver unparalleled AD&S insights. Our renowned open-source intelligence and potent analytical tools, backed by our deep industry expertise, help clients navigate emerging markets, optimize operations and mitigate commercial risk to make more impactful decisions.

  9. Maritime & Trade IHS Markit Maritime & Trade, with the world’s largest maritime database, is built on more than 250 years of industry experience. Governments, traders, cargo owners and the global shipping industry all rely on our solutions. We manage ever-changing technology and regulations along with market risk and geopolitical threats. This proprietary knowledge and experience enables world leaders to understand complex global supply chains.

  10. The New Intelligence IHS Markit’s singular ability to look across complex industries, financial markets, and government actions that drive the global economy and provide our customers with insights, perspective and solutions for what really matters.

  11. Use case 1: Data Aggregator IHS Markit maintains databases of economic time-series data across all countries StatsSA is one of the government statistical agencies that we cover Data users are lazy The IHS Markit systems allow them to update the data with the click of a button Emphasis is on productivity

  12. EconoStat Time-series Different sources Various publications Across Countries Different frequencies Various release schedules Standardised Cleaned Quality control

  13. Data easy accessible in Microsoft Excel

  14. The Global Link Model (GLM) • The Global Link Model (GLM), a powerfultool to understand changes in the world economy • The model isdesigned: • For forecasting and for scenario analysis… • Over short, medium and long term horizons (2, 5-10 and 30 years)

  15. What is important for an Aggregator? Good relationship with sources Open communication • Schedule and structural changes; sufficient advance notification • Technical support for resolving data issues Data format and consistency • Unique identifiers for each series (codes, mnemonics) Timeliness and Quality Historical revisions • structural breaks; access to archives • linking series, long histories

  16. Use case 2: Statistical Modelling People ask us for data all the time • The easy questions are passed on to StatsSA – when this could be answered from one of the released publications. • The more difficult questions • data does not exists • forward-looking (forecasts, projections) • conflicting numbers • something better than nothing

  17. Question What is the expected population of Ekurhuleni in 2020? CS 2016 Census2011 2020 ? 3.18m 3.38m 3.55m Historical growth +1.2% 3.75m Latest provincial growth

  18. Another question 396k Pop Census 311k QLFS 516k QES 517k DMR How many people were employed in the mining industry in South Africa in 2012?

  19. Making Assumptions Detailed understanding of the underlying meta-data • Reference date • Quality – undercount; response rates • Sample design • Different technologies (CAPI vs PAPI) Geographic boundary changes over time Comparison with other possible sources? Potentially employ proxy variables Academic scrutiny by other researchers Definition challenges

  20. Statistical modelling Bespoke basis • Store/branch placements for brand-owners, financial-institutions • Market dynamics and sizing Standard Product • ReX: Socio-Economic database on Local Municipal level • Based on the latest (ever-changing) Local Municipal boundaries • Wide range of variables: Demographic, Development, Household services, Income & Expenditure, Industry, Labour, Economic, Fiscal

  21. Final remarks Quality of administrative data is increasing Technology is making surveys cheaper, and by implication better. Emphasis on using the once in a 5-10 years Population census as the benchmark source of data is shifting Aerial Photography and Satellite Imagery is getting better and cheaper We hope that initiatives like the Dwelling Frame will help solve the problem of continuous changing boundaries. The urban landscape of South Africa is still rapidly changing

  22. East of Tswaing Meteorite Crater: Oct 2011

  23. East of Tswaing Meteorite Crater: Jun-2013

  24. East of Tswaing Meteorite Crater: Nov-2013

  25. Any questions

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