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Prof. OGUNLADE DAVIDSON Director

Beyond Kyoto: Concerns for Africa. Prof. OGUNLADE DAVIDSON Director African CDM Training workshop and preparatory meeting for UNFCCC COP 9 20-21 October, 2003, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Energy & Development Research Centre University of Cape Town. Global Trends in Climate Change Debate.

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Prof. OGUNLADE DAVIDSON Director

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  1. Beyond Kyoto: Concerns for Africa Prof. OGUNLADE DAVIDSON Director African CDM Training workshop and preparatory meeting for UNFCCC COP 9 20-21 October, 2003, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Energy & Development Research CentreUniversity of Cape Town

  2. Global Trends in Climate Change Debate • Different developmental status –strongly linked to cumulative/future GHG emissions, but CO2 is still the problem • Sharing of climate change burden • Who should pay and amount? • Who should receive the payment? • Assessments of costs: Annex 1 and non Annex 1 differs • Mitigation • Adaptation • In-action • Multiple dividends • Penalties

  3. North Issues Emissions reduction Cost –Effectiveness Cost of Mitigation R&D & Technology Diffusion North Strategies Emissions Trading/JI/CDM/ Carbon Tax Corporate Sector participation Technology Cooperation South Issues Development is Priority Precautionary Principle Equity concerns South Strategies Development-Climate change links Capacity building Technology transfer Vulnerability& Adaptation North – South Perspectives

  4. Specific African Issues with link to CC • Poverty reduction • Worsening environmental problems • Lowest user of modern energy services • Extremely weak negotiating capacities • Low GHG emitter • Poor and weak integration among institutions • Links between analytical and decision making improving but needs attention

  5. Comparing AI and NAI emissions ANNUAL EMISSIONS, 1998 CUMULATIVE EMISSIONS 1900- 1999 Non-Annex I: 19% Non-Annex I: 43% Annex I: 81% Annex I: 57% Data source: CDIAC, analysis by EDRC students

  6. Total CO2 emission from fuel combustion, 2000 African total DR Congo Ghana South Africa Brazil India China UK Russia Germany USA 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 MtCO2 Source: IEA 2002

  7. Outlook for the future Annual CO2 emissions in gigatons (from 2010 linear growth estimation) 40 35 30 global 25 20 developed countries 15 10 developing countries 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Data source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000

  8. Outlook for the future Cumulative CO2 emissions in gigatons (from 2010 linear growth estimation) 6000.0 5000.0 global 4000.0 3000.0 developed countries 2000.0 1000.0 developing countries 0.0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Data source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000

  9. Key Elements in Designing Future Commitments • Environmental Integrity • Overall emissions cap – share of emissions by regions • Equity • Burden sharing (linked to emissions per region-country –capita • Developmental status • Economic /Technological Feasibility and Efficiency • Technological development • Linkage to the economic development • Emissions trading for efficiency

  10. A variety of different approaches • Some approaches are top-down, focus on long-term vision and global by design • Per capita • Brazilian proposal • Full extension of Kyoto • Others are bottom-up, focus on short-term steps • Emission intensity (starts from GDP) – could be global? • Triptych - sectoral focus on emission-intensive sectors • used for EU and research on global extension • Multi-stage approaches • Sectoral CDM / SD-PAMs • The challenge: can we find ‘a logical, top-down and long-term resolution that is expected to be practised in a bottom up regime

  11. Per capita allocations • Instead of grandfathering emissions and sharing burden, start from entitlement of each person • Equal right of each person to use the atmosphere (global commons) • Contraction & Convergence one example • Contract to limit global GHG emissions • Converge on equal per capita emissions • Linked to IET could givemany DCs large allowances • National circumstances • resource endowment

  12. Brazilian proposal • NEED MORE FROM THE OFFICAL PROPOSAL • Share emission reductions based on relative responsibility for global temperature increase (ΔT) • Complex calculations back to concentrations and emissions • Originally applied only to Annex I • But since considered extension • Only approach officially proposed to UNFCCC Parties • Only energy CO2, no deforestation, other gases?

  13. Emissions intensity • Major part of GHG emissions is closely related to GDP • Fixed emission targets generate risk: • Hot air, in the case of lower-than-expected economic growth, harms environmental effectiveness • Severe economic constraints, in the case of higher-than-expected economic growth, could result in non-compliance • Emissions intensity target: Reduction of ratio of GHG per unit GDP (CO2-eq / $) • Not the same emissions intensity for all DCs • But perhaps a uniform percentage decrease from each country’s own emissions intensity ? • Not inherently ‘softer’ or ‘harder’ than a top-down allocation • Depends on stringency of both

  14. Extending Kyoto (fixed targets) • Form of target in Kyoto: average 5% reduction below 1990 levels • Grandfathers emissions by country • Sets absolute number of tons of GHG emissions • Possibility to join Annex I by • Notification by the Party (voluntary commitment) • Decision by the COP to amend Annex I • Advantage: known QUELRO’s and framework of KP • Building on existing instruments • Flexible mechanisms • Reporting and monitoring system • But is it conceivable to extend this to 150+ countries?

  15. SD-PAMs • Sustainable development policies and measures • Commitment to implement a set of PAMs motivated primarily by SD, but that also achieve some ERs • Outline development objectives and identify more sustainable path • Quantify both SD benefits and changes in GHG emissions • Report under National Communications or FCCC registry • Key issues • Funding: Build on existing commitments in Convention Article 4.1b and Protocol Article 10 • Establishing national baseline emissions • Agreeing on what qualifies as SD-PAM • Under FCCC, no new agreement needed • Can happen in parallel and may be a useful transition process

  16. Possible corridors to stabilization 14 13 12 550 11 10 Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions (GtC) 9 8 7 450 6 5 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 Source of stabilization paths: IPCC WGIII chapter 2, post SRES scenarios, CO2 only

  17. Multi-stage approaches • Current strong division AI / NAI: • Incentive to join Annex I – emissions trading • Disincentive: G77 solidarity • C&C requires all DCs to join at once • 49 LDCs together add 0.5 % of annual global CO2 • Multiple stages • Annex I countries continue with emission reduction commitments • Non-annex I countries move through steps, e.g. • No commitment • Reduce emission intensity • Stabilise emissions • Share in emission reductions (den Elzen 2002) • Triggers • Particular years • Thresholds • E.g. GDP / cap • E.g. Emissions per capita Source: Hoehne presentation, Ecofys

  18. Equity as a Principle • Fair allocation of costs of preventing further climate change (mitigation costs) • Fair allocation of costs of adapting to climate change (adaptation costs) • Fair process of agreeing internationally how to determine costs • Fair allocation of greenhouse gas emissions in the long-term and in a transition phase • Review of equity in IPCC TAR WG3 • Context of ‘development, equity and sustainability’ • Multi-faceted: “allocation, outcome, process, rights, liability, poverty, and opportunity, reflecting the diverse expectations of fairness used to judge policy processes and the corresponding outcomes” • ‘Quality of being fair or impartial’; ‘something that is fair or just”

  19. World Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe) Source: WEO, 2001

  20. Comparison of CO2 Emissionsin Fossil Fuel Plants 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 Series1 CO2 Emissions kgCO2/MWh 200 100 0 Gas CHP Coal CHP turbine turbine Clean Coal fired Coal-fired steam Gas Combined Cycle Coalgasification/steam

  21. Efficiency and CO2 Emissions and Power Plants 1400 IGCC - Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle PFBC -Pulverised Fuel Combustion 1200 COAL 1000 Steam Turbine PFBC IGCC 800 OIL Coal Oil Diesel enfine Natural Gas 600 Fuel Cell CO2 emissions, kg/MWh NATURAL GAS Gas Turbine Diesel engine 400 &Steam Turbine Fuel Cell Gas Turbine Gas engine & Steam Turbine 200 Fuel Cell 0 30 40 50 60 70 Efficiency(%)

  22. New Options • Natural gas fired combined cycles are preffered because of low costs, high efficiency, low environmental impacts • Co-generation is cost-effective especially when used in the form of gas turbines and combined cycles • Fuel cells for small power generation • Coal gasification can lead to power production integrated gasifier combined cycles (IGCC) • Use of Renewable Energy Technologies • Promotion of energy efficiency

  23. Elements of Technology Protocol • Technology transfer incentives – High quality energy technologies • Agreement on reducing energy intensity – energy use per product • A converging range • Time allowance • Sector dependent • Agreement on overall efficiency per sector (range) • Agreement on dematerialization trends (range) • Agreement on fuel efficiency

  24. Critical Issues for Energy Development in Africa • Linking global and local environmental issues • Search for win-win solutions • Search for trade-offs • Substantial increase in energy access • Abundant reserves • Search for technologies • Search for investments • Energy security • Control outside interests • Linking to environmental security

  25. Energy & Development Research Centre University of Cape Town,

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