Carbon Cycle Science Goals and Objectives / Future Directions

1. Carbon Cycle Science Goals and Objectives / Future Directions August 24, 2006 Break-out Group 1

2. Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Focus Area The Legacy Roadmap for Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems

3. Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Knowledge of the interactions of global biogeochemical cycles and terrestrial and marine ecosystems with global environmental change and their implications for the Earth’s climate, productivity, and natural resources is needed to understand and protect our home planet. • Important Concerns: • Potential greenhouse warming (CO2, CH4) and ecosystem interactions with climate • Carbon management (e.g., capacity of plants, soils, and the ocean to sequester carbon) • Productivity of ecosystems (food, fiber, fuel) • Ecosystem health and the sustainability of ecosystem goods and services • Biodiversity and invasive species NASA provides the global perspective and unique combination of interdisciplinary science, state-of-the-art Earth system modeling, and diverse synoptic observations needed to document, understand, and project carbon cycle dynamics and changes in terrestrial and marine ecosystems and land cover.

4. Integrated global analyses Report Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Roadmap Human-Ecosystems-Climate Interactions (Model-Data Fusion, Assimilation); Global Air-Sea Flux Sub-regional sources/sinks Funded T High-Resolution Atmospheric CO2 Unfunded Southern Ocean Carbon Program, Air-Sea CO2 Flux Process controls; errors in sink reduced Partnership Models w/improved ecosystem functions T= Technology development T Physiology & Functional Types Reduced flux uncertainties; coastal carbon dynamics Coastal Carbon = Field Campaign Global Ocean Carbon / Particle Abundance Reduced flux uncertainties; global carbon dynamics Goals: Global productivity and land cover change at fine resolution; biomass and carbon fluxes quantified; useful ecological forecasts and improved climate change projections T Vegetation 3-D Structure, Biomass, & Disturbance Terrestrial carbon stocks & species habitat characterized Global CH4;Wetlands, Flooding & Permafrost CH4 sources characterized and quantified Knowledge Base Global Atmospheric CO2 (OCO) Regional carbon sources/sinks quantified for planet N. American Carbon Program N. America’s carbon budget quantified Land Use Change in Amazonia Effects of tropical deforestation quantified; uncertainties in tropical carbon source reduced 2002: Global productivity and land cover resolution coarse; Large uncertainties in biomass, fluxes, disturbance, and coastal events Models & Computing Capacity Process Understanding Case Studies Improvements: P Land Cover (Landsat) LDCM Land Cover (OLI) Systematic Observations Ocean Color (SeaWiFS, MODIS) Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPP) Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPOESS) Vegetation, Fire (AVHRR, MODIS) Vegetation (AVHRR, MODIS) IPCC IPCC 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 2002 2004 2006 Global C Cycle Global C Cycle NA Carbon NA Carbon

5. Integrated global analyses Report Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Roadmap Human-Ecosystems-Climate Interactions (Model-Data Fusion, Assimilation); Global Air-Sea Flux Sub-regional sources/sinks Funded T High-Resolution Atmospheric CO2 Unfunded Southern Ocean Carbon Program, Air-Sea CO2 Flux Process controls; errors in sink reduced Partnership Models w/improved ecosystem functions T= Technology development T Physiology & Functional Types Reduced flux uncertainties; coastal carbon dynamics Coastal Carbon = Field Campaign Global Ocean Carbon / Particle Abundance Reduced flux uncertainties; global carbon dynamics Goals: Global productivity and land cover change at fine resolution; biomass and carbon fluxes quantified; useful ecological forecasts and improved climate change projections T Vegetation 3-D Structure, Biomass, & Disturbance Terrestrial carbon stocks & species habitat characterized Global CH4;Wetlands, Flooding & Permafrost CH4 sources characterized and quantified Knowledge Base Global Atmospheric CO2 (OCO) Regional carbon sources/sinks quantified for planet N. American Carbon Program N. America’s carbon budget quantified Land Use Change in Amazonia Effects of tropical deforestation quantified; uncertainties in tropical carbon source reduced 2002: Global productivity and land cover resolution coarse; Large uncertainties in biomass, fluxes, disturbance, and coastal events Models & Computing Capacity Process Understanding Case Studies Improvements: P Land Cover (Landsat) LDCM Land Cover (OLI) Systematic Observations Ocean Color (SeaWiFS, MODIS) Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPP) Ocean/Land (VIIRS/NPOESS) Vegetation, Fire (AVHRR, MODIS) Vegetation (AVHRR, MODIS) IPCC IPCC 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 2002 2004 2006 Global C Cycle Global C Cycle NA Carbon NA Carbon

6. Predicting Carbon Cycling Anticipated Outcomes and Uses of Results Result / Capability Products / Uses for Decision Support Global primary productivity and land cover change time series variability and trends quantified at moderate to fine spatial resolution. Carbon sources and sinks identified and quantified. Quantitative global monitoring & evaluation tools: to assess the efficacy of carbon management (e.g. sequestration in biomass); to assess agricultural, forest, and fisheries productivity; for use in verifying emissions and/or sequestration reporting by nations/sectors. Quantification of carbon and nutrient storage and fluxes, disturbance and recovery processes, and ecosystem health. Quantification of controlling processes and their interactions. Maps, data products and information on relationships among them as input for decision support systems. Simulation models that enable “If … , then…” scenarios to be explored. Models that: - achieve carbon balance - reliably characterize interannual variability and sub-regional processes - quantitatively portray multiple, interacting controlling processes - are able to correctly simulate past land cover, ecosystem dynamics and biogeochemical cycling Ecological Forecasts: Projections of changes in carbon sources and sinks, land cover, and ecosystem dynamics due to combinations of real-world forcings of global environmental change with sub-regional specificity and good reliability for ~6 mos. to 2 years into the future (e.g., harmful algal blooms, invasive species). -------------------------------------------- Inputs for Climate Projections: Credible, useful projections of future climate change (including improved ecosystem feedbacks and projections of CO2 and CH4 concentrations) for 50-100 years into the future for a variety of policy-relevant “if …, then …” scenarios.

7. Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Science Questions • How are global ecosystems changing? • What trends in atmospheric constituents and solar radiation are driving global climate? ** • What changes are occurring in global land cover and land use, and what are their causes? • How do ecosystems, land cover and biogeochemical cycles respond to and affect global environmental change? • What are the consequences of land cover and land use change for human societies and the sustainability of ecosystems? • What are the consequences of climate change and increased human activities for coastal regions? ** • How will carbon cycle dynamics and terrestrial and marine ecosystems change in the future? • ** Question shared with other Focus Areas

8. C process models Coupled Carbon Data Assimilation System transport and carbon gases weather and climate satellite and in-situ observations Why Carbon Cycle? • Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 & CH4, both greenhouse gases, have increased dramatically in the past 200 years due to fossil fuel burning and land cover/use change • There is potential to mitigate climate change effects by enhancing biospheric carbon uptake and storage (i.e., carbon sequestration) • Better predictions of future atmospheric CO2 & CH4 and ecosystem carbon dynamics are needed to improve climate projections and scenarios used for decision making

9. Research Challenges: Carbon Cycle • Closing the global carbon budget (& quantifying components) • quantifying North America’s carbon sources and sinks, understanding their interannual variability, and explaining causes • locating and explaining the Northern Hemisphere terrestrial sink • determining the size, function, and controls on oceanic sinks • clarifying carbon source/sink dynamics and trends in the tropics • Projecting future concentrations of CO2 and CH4 and changes in terrestrial and aquatic carbon cycling dynamics • developing capable carbon cycle, ecosystem, and carbon data assimilation models • quantifying errors and characterizing uncertainties associated with model inputs and outputs • collaborating with modelers in other Focus Areas to develop fully coupled, integrated Earth system models that incorporate projections of future carbon cycle dynamics

10. Carbon Management Aviation Energy Management Water Management Coastal Management Homeland Security Disaster Management Ecological Forecasting Invasive Species Air Quality Draw upon carbon, ecosystems, and land use/cover science Agricultural Efficiency Applications of National Priority Public Health

11. Research Challenges: Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Research  Applications • Advancing the remote sensing, spatial analysis, information management, and decision support tools needed to evaluate management and mitigation options for responding to • climate change • management of carbon in the environment • threats to sustainable resource use and the productivity of agricultural systems and coastal fisheries • changes in or loss of habitat and reductions in biodiversity • non-indigenous species invasions

12. CC&E Missions / Mission Studies • Vegetation 3-D Structure, Biomass, and Disturbance. Vegetation height profiles over the Earth’s land surface are needed to estimate biomass and carbon stocks and to quantify biomass recovery following disturbance. - Candidate technological approaches are lidar profiling, P-band SAR, and interferometric SAR (InSAR). The combination of a profiling lidar and a P-band (or L-band?) SAR represents the most promising approach to meeting the requirements for accuracy and global coverage. - Relevant Decadal Survey White Papers: Biomass Monitoring Mission (BioMM), also Multiplatform Interferometric SAR for Forest Structure, Biomass Monitoring Mission Lidar (BioMM-L), InSAR Applications for Exploration of the Earth, and, possibly, Structure and Inventory of Vegetated Ecosystems (STRIVE) • Physiology and Functional Types. Global observations of plant functional types and physiological function are required. Spectral coverage and sampling, spatial resolution, and temporal sampling must be optimized for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and to match their physical-ecological scales of variability. - A polar orbiter for land with an imaging spectrometer and a polar orbiter for the ocean carrying an advanced spectrometer paired with multiple active lidars seem most feasible, but a single mission may be possible. - Relevant Decadal Survey White Papers: Flora Mission for Ecosystem Composition, Disturbance, and Productivity; also PHYTOSAT: A Space Mission to Observe Phytoplankton and Assess its Role in the Oceanic Carbon Cycle

13. CC&E Missions / Mission Studies • Global Ocean Carbon Ecosystems and Coastal Processes. New space-based global observations are needed over an expanded spectral range and with finer resolution to allow for the accurate separation of in-water constituents (e.g., colored dissolved organic material, particle abundance, functional groups) and support the evolution of advanced ocean color algorithms. - A new baseline mission to characterize ocean constituents and make supporting aerosol observations to effectively utilize the new spectral ocean color information. This mission provides global coverage of continental shelves and near-shore environments and key polar regions. - Relevant Decadal Survey White Papers: OCEaNS (Ocean Carbon, Ecosystems, and Near-shore) • Profiles of Atmospheric CO2. Measure high resolution columns and profiles of CO2 and other biogeochemically produced greenhouses gases in order to locate and quantify surface sources and sinks. This mission’s measurements of carbon sources and sinks will be used to develop and explain annual global carbon budgets, evaluate international reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration, and as inputs to decision support for carbon accounting and management. - Determine distribution of CO2 abundance with improved sensitivity in the lowermost 5 km of the troposphere with measurement precision of 1-2 ppm CO2 on a grid no coarser than 100km x 100km and an ability to screen for clouds. - Relevant Decadal Survey White Papers:

14. Carbon Break-out Questions 1. Carbon cycle science goal & objectives/future directions:Chairs: Steve Wofsy, Eric Davidson Room: Auditorium • What are the most important carbon cycle science needs and challenges for NASA to address in the next few years? • How could the current program "portfolio" be improved? Are we doing the right things in/for NACP? Is it time to assess progress before calling for additional new studies? • How should the advent of OCO affect the program? • Are we making appropriate progress toward integrating carbon cycle models into Earth system models? If not, what needs to be done? • What results from this area feed into NASA's Carbon Management program? How can this transition be improved/strengthened? • What are the key global observations that NASA should make to address carbon cycle issues (e.g., hydrology, biomass, canopy nutrients, canopy health, vegetation composition)?