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New Dynamics of Security in East Asia

New Dynamics of Security in East Asia. May 18, 2006 Regional Anatomy I Ken JIMBO. Regionalism in Asia-Pacific / East Asia Political & Security Dimension. 1) April 13 Overview and Introduction: What is Regionalism? 2) April 20 Regionalism & Regional Integration

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New Dynamics of Security in East Asia

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  1. New Dynamics of Security in East Asia May 18, 2006 Regional Anatomy I Ken JIMBO

  2. Regionalism in Asia-Pacific / East AsiaPolitical & Security Dimension 1) April 13 Overview and Introduction: What is Regionalism? 2) April 20 Regionalism & Regional Integration 3) April 27 Regionalism in Asia 4) May 11 East Asian Community and East Asian Summit 5) May 18 New Dynamics of Security in East Asia

  3. Introduction: Understanding Asia-Pacific Security • Security Environment in Asia-Pacific • European Theater and Asia Pacific Theater • Impact of the End of Cold War • Strategic Circumstances • US Engagement • Rise of Multilateral Security • Prevailing Double Track Approach • New Dynamics of Security in East Asia • Strategic Circumstances • US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia • Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated • Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation • Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

  4. European Theater and Asia-Pacific Theater(During the Cold War) Warsaw Pact NATO European Theater (Regional Approach) Asian Theater (Bilateral Approach) Bilateral (Hub-Spokes) Alliances

  5. Impact of the End of the Cold WarFour Dimension • In Europe… • Dissolution of Warsaw Pact • NATO Expansion • European Security & Defense Policy (ESDP) ⇒ In Asia, Hub-Spokes Remain the Same! But … • Four Dimension • Strategic Circumstances • US Engagement • Rise of Multilateral Security • Prevailing Double Track Approach

  6. End of the Cold War 1)Strategic Circumstances • Declining of Large Scale Threat • Demise of East-West Confrontation • Transformation of USSR • Rising Regional Agenda • Korean Nuclear Crisis (1993-94) • Taiwan Straits Tensions (1996)

  7. End of the Cold War 2)US Military Engagement • Bush Sr. Administration (1989-1993) • East Asian Strategic Initiative (EASI) > Force Reduction Plan • Clinton Administration (1993-2000) • East Asian Strategic Report I (EASR I, 1995) > US-Japan Alliance • East Asian Strategic Report II (EASR II, 1998) > Comprehensive Engagement

  8. End of the Cold War 3)Rise of Multilateral Security • Track-I Framework • ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF <1994-present>) • Track-II Dialogues • Council for Security Cooperation in Asia Pacific (CSCAP) • Northeast Asian Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD)

  9. US East Asian Regional SecurityEASI-I (1990) US Department of Defense, A Strategic Framework for the Asian Pacific Rim: Looking toward the 21st Century. April 19, 1990. “Our friends and allies in East Asia are reluctant to enter into multilateral consultation on security concern for a variety of reasons. Foremost is the wide cultural, political and economic diversity among most of the Asian states which makes bilateral security arrangements much more appropriate” ―February 1990

  10. US East Asian Regional SecurityEASR (1995) US Department of Defense, The United States Security Strategy for East Asia-Pacific Region, February 1995 “Some in the United States have been reluctant to enter into regional security dialogues in Asia, but I see this as a way to supplement our alliances and forward military presence, not to supplant them” ―February 1995

  11. Prevailing “Double Track Approach” (1995-2001?) Deterrence/Response Korean Peninsula Taiwan Straits Alliance Mechanism Cooperative Security US-Japan Security Alliance US-Korea Security Alliance ARF CBM / Preventive Diplomacy

  12. New Dynamics of Security in East Asia (2001-Present) • Strategic Circumstances • US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia • Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated • Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation • Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

  13. New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 1)Strategic Circumstances • Rise of Asymmetrical Warfare • Terrorist Networks • Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) • Lingering Traditional Risks Reloaded • Korean Nuclear Crisis (2002-present) • Taiwan Straits • Rise of China • Rising Military Capability • “Responsible Stakeholder”? (Robert Zoellick)

  14. Traditional Risks ReloadedNorth Korean Missile Range (status 1994)

  15. Traditional Risks ReloadedNorth Korean Missile Range (status 1998-)

  16. Traditional Risks ReloadedProliferation RiskA.Q. Kahn’s Nuclear Black Market

  17. New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 2)US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia • Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) 2001/05 • Capability-Based Approach • Static to Dynamic Defense Posture • Transformation of US Military and the Global Posture Review (GPR) • Reducing Size of US Forces • Increase US Military Capability • Enable Rapid Power Projection • Regional-Global Forward Presence

  18. New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 3)Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated • Japan-US Alliance: Toward ‘Global Alliance’ • “Common Strategic Objective” on Regional / Global Context • Roles, Missions and Capabilities (RMC) Sharing • Relocation of US Bases in Japan • Korea-US Alliance: Constraint Transformation • Future of Alliance Initiatives > FOTA > SPI • Reduction of 12,500 US Troops from DMZ • “Cooperative Autonomous Defense”

  19. New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 4)Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation • Region-wide Security Mechanisms • ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) • Shangri-la Dialogue • Sub-Regional Security Mechanisms • Six-Party Talks • Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) • Various Types of Military Exercises

  20. New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 4)Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms • Counter- / Anti- Terrorism Cooperation • Proliferation Security Initiatives (PSI) • Trafficking Controls / Information Sharing • Non-Traditional Security Cooperation • SARS / Aviation Flu • Anti-Piracy Cooperation • Transnational Organized Crimes

  21. New Dynamics of Security in East Asia

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