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Executive Board meeting 25 January 2006

Executive Board meeting 25 January 2006. Growth forecast Consensus Forecasts. 2005. 2006. Source: Consensus Forecasts. CPI core 1) 12-month change. January 1999 – December 2005. US. Euro area. UK. Sweden. 1) US: CPI excl. food and energy

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Executive Board meeting 25 January 2006

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  1. Executive Board meeting25 January 2006

  2. Growth forecast Consensus Forecasts 2005 2006 Source: Consensus Forecasts

  3. CPI core1)12-month change. January 1999 – December 2005 US Euro area UK Sweden 1) US: CPI excl. food and energy Euro area, UK and Sweden: CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Source: EcoWin\ Eurostat

  4. 23 January 2006 13 December 2005 Actual and expected key rates1) UK Sweden Euro area US 1)Not adjusted for credit risk Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank

  5. Long-term real interest rates1)Week 1 2002 – week 3 2006 Sweden (2020) France (2029) US (2029) UK (2030) UK (2055) Japan (2014) 1) Maturity dates in brackets Source: Ecowin

  6. Differential between US 10-year and 3-month yieldsMonthly figures. Per cent Source: EcoWin

  7. Developments in international equity indicesTotal return. Indices, 3 January 2005 = 100 3 January 2005 – 23 January 2006 Source: EcoWin

  8. International commodity prices in USDIndices, Week 1 2000 = 100. Week 1 2000 – Week 3 2006 Agricultural products excl. food Manufacturing Metals Source: EcoWin / The Economist

  9. Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices USD per barrel 23 January 2006 27 October (IR 3/05) Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank

  10. 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44)1) Monthly figures. January 2002 – January 2006 I-44 (right-hand scale) Weighted 3-month interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 13 December 2005 23 January 2006 1) A rising curve denotes a stronger krone exchange rate Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank

  11. CPI-ATE 12-month change. Per cent. Broken lines are projections from IR 3/05 January 2004 – December 2005 Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7)1) CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods (0.3) 1) Norges Bank's calculations Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  12. Various inflation indicators12-month change. Per cent CPI Weighted median CPI-ATE 20 per cent trimmed mean Source: Statistics Norway

  13. Goods consumption indexSeasonally adjusted index. January 2004 – November 2005 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  14. Number of unemployedIn thousands. Seasonally adjusted LFS (left-hand scale) Registered unemployed (right-hand scale) Sources: Directorate of Labour, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  15. Credit growthTotal debt mainland Norway (C3). Domestic credit to households (C2)12-month change. Per cent Total debt non-financial enterprises mainland Norway (C3) Households (C2) Total debt mainland Norway (C3) Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  16. House prices and housing startsHousing starts measured as total over 12 months. In thousands 12-month change in house prices. Per cent January 2000 – December 2005 Housing starts1) House prices 1)Last observation is November Sources: Associations of Norwegian real estate agents (NEF, EFF) and Statistics Norway

  17. Non-residential building startsArea (1000 m2). 3-month moving average January 2001 – November 2005 Leisure property Retail trade Manufacturing Property management Source: Statistics Norway

  18. Norges Bank's and the market's overnight deposit rate scenario1) Interest rate scenario IR 3/05 Market 13 December 2005 Market 23 January 2006 1)The black and blue lines indicate market participants' interest rate expectations on 13 December 2005 and 23 January 2006 respectively. A credit risk premium and technical difference of 0.20 percentage point were deducted in calculating the sight deposit rate. The grey, shaded interval shows the highest and lowest interest rates in the market's sight deposit rate path in the last 10 days up to 23 January. Sources: Norges Bank

  19. Baseline scenario in Inflation Report 3/05 Import-weighted exchange rate, Sight deposit rate Output gap CPI-ATE

  20. Monetary Policy Strategy - Inflation Report 3/05 • "The Executive Board's assessment is that the sight deposit rate should be in the interval 2 - 3 per cent in the period to the publication of the next Inflation Report on 16 March 2006, conditional on economic developments that are broadly in line with the projections." • The Executive Board's assessment is that the interest rate may gradually, in small, not too frequent steps, be brought back towards a more normal level. The objective of bringing inflation back to target and anchoring inflation expectations nevertheless implies that monetary policy remains expansionary.

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