1. International Organization for Migration SudanClimate and Environment Activities and Findings

2. Sudan and Climate Change • Critical issues • Disruption of rainfall patterns and farming in many areas. • Increased rainfall variability • Possible southward expansion of the Sahara. • Climate-related migration and damage to livelihoods. • Especially severe in Darfur, due to: • Conflict-related population displacement • Disruption of resource management by conflict and migration • Dependence on rain-fed dry land agriculture

3. Background: Darfur • Mostly arid and semi-arid, with rain-fed subsistence agriculture and herding. • Population displacement is severe and ongoing, mainly due to conflict. • Information on climate, water, environment & population mobility is very incomplete.

4. Background: Darfur • Since 2003, conflict has severely disrupted normal economic life. • Massive environmental damage due to displacement and weak resource management: • Deforestation (50%+ forest cover lost in 20 years) • Soil erosion & desertification • Declining soil fertility (Major drop in grain yields) • Biodiversity loss • Climate/environment issues and resource competition severely hamper IDP returns, increase community vulnerability.

5. Two Core Needs • Improve our knowledge of the link between climate, environment, migration and livelihoods. • Build community environmental management capacity and climate resilience.

6. IOM’s Responses Environment & Livelihoods Vulnerability Mapping (ELVM) • Estimates community vulnerability to crop failure and displacement due to environment and livelihoods factors. • Uses spatial data from satellites, surveys, census and field missions. • Complements field activities and assists in targeting aid to improve climate resilience.

7. Environment and Livelihoods Vulnerability Index • Combines data on: • Potential Rainfall (PRA) • Rainfall Predictability (RP) • Potential Groundwater (PGA) • Woodfuel Sufficiency (PWS) • Relative Population (RPOP) • Adaptive Capacity (AC) • Creates a Vulnerability Index for any 16x16km grid square – and thus any community - in Darfur

8. Environment and Livelihoods Vulnerability Mapping • Combines the Vulnerability Index for the entire region. • Allows rapid assessment of community vulnerability to drought, deforestation, livelihood disruption. • Cannot model every significant factor: not a replacement for field work, but a valuable tool.

9. Implications (Example) • Millet, the staple cereal crop in most of Darfur, requires approx. 250mm rain per year for a successful harvest. • Since early 1980s (a drought period) the land area receiving 250mm rain has been stable or increasing. • NDVI shows normal vegetation growth in uncultivated areas. • Rainfall, temperature & evapotranspiration (and thus climate change) do not explain a decline in yields in Darfur - yet.

10. Climate Change and Darfur: Key Conclusions • The overall climate picture is uncertain, but rainfall is not clearly decreasing (yet). • Local land use problems, including deforestation, soil erosion, overgrazing and unsustainable farming techniques are severe. • Conflict and weak resource management have enormous impact on environment & migration, possibly greater than climate change so far. • More study is needed, but we can still act to build capacity and resilience now, to address local problems and climate change.

11. Baaba • Severe deforestation for charcoal production, fuelwood, construction • Riverbank erosion resulting in flooding • Aquifer failure due to change in wadi course has ruined fruit trees and vegetable farms • Loss of fertility in cereal farms due to erosion, over-cultivation, loss of nitrogen-fixing trees • These local crises have devastated the community even before the worst effects of climate change occur

12. Mitigation Activity: Community Environmental Action Plans • Uses a community-driven approach to identify environmental issues and build local capacity. • Effective for conflict-affected communities, especially with returned IDPs. • Aims to reduce community’s environmental impact, risk of displacement. • Core Principles: • Community Consultation • Community Governance • Gender Equality • Local Ownership

14. Community-identified Needs in Baaba • Reforestation • Better fuel/energy management • Efficient water use • Agricultural capacity • Livelihoods opportunities • Improved sanitation/hygiene

15. Nursery

17. Agricultural Extension

19. Water Management

20. Community-levelcapacity-building • Takes an integrated approach to multiple environmental issues, using local knowledge. • Especially valuable for remote or insecure regions where top-down strategies are problematic. • Allows effective action despite incomplete data. • Improving community environmental management boosts livelihoods and resilience before worst effects of climate change.

21. Recommendations • Emphasize community-level capacity for environment and resource management • Local effects often larger than climate change effects now, but this will change. • No need to wait for further study before acting • Integrate climate resilience into other areas of local development planning – livelihoods, health, agriculture. • Local capacity will be essential to mitigate growing impacts of climate change in future. • Expand vulnerability mapping approach in Sudan and other arid states.

22. Thank you! Any questions?