Aviation Forecasting – Works in Progress NCVF – Ceiling & Visibility CoSPA – Storm Prediction

1. Aviation Forecasting – Works in Progress NCVF – Ceiling & Visibility CoSPA – Storm Prediction A Joint Effort Among: MIT Lincoln Laboratory NCAR – National Center for Atmospheric Research NOAA/ESRL Global Systems Division Funded by FAA’s Aviation Weather Research Program Paul Herzegh, NCAR 26 Feb 2009

2. NCVFCONUS C&V Probabilistic Forecast Early steps toward a D3 (experimental) decision in FY11.

3. NCVF – The CONUS C&V Probabilistic Forecast • Status • FY09 first year for probabilistic development • FY11 D3 ‘Experimental’ evaluation / decision • FY13 D4 ‘Operational’ evaluation / decision • Features • 1-12 hr forecasts initially; Later extended toward 24-30 hours. • Consolidates NWP, MOS, & observations-based methods. • Rapid updating; Major refresh hourly; Minor refresh 15-min. • 0-hr ‘current diagnosis’ - probabilistic C&V in observation gap areas. • - Will use previous 1-hr Prob Forecast info in gap areas. • - Will be constrained to match obs at observing points. • - Will be future replacement to today’s Analysis product (NCVA).

4. Operational C&V Forecasting Tools Today CONUS TAFs TAFs WFO Forecaster WRF-NMM 4 km WRF-ARW 4 km WRF- NMM 12 km WFO Hi-Res NWP (Exp’l) > NAM (3 hr res) RUC (1 hr res) SREF (Experimental) Op’l NWP > NAM MOS (6-84 hr) GFS MOS(6-84 hr) GFS LAMP (1-25 hr) GFS GlobalEns MOS (Future) MOS > Area Forecasts – a foundation product AWC >

5. Time-Lagged Ensembles (TLE) - What is the C&V predictive skill of the TLE? - Factors: Fewer members; Variable # of members; Less diversity than conventional ensemble Merging TLE with LAMP PDF - Can we achieve an increase in skill? WRF-NMM 4 km WRF-ARW 4 km WRF- NMM 12 km NAM (In SREF) SREF (Experimental) NAM MOS (6-84 hr) GFS MOS(In LAMP) GFS GlobalEns MOS (Exp’l) Area Forecasts – a foundation product AWC > FY09 – Two key concept tests FY09 NCVF V1 Concept Tests Hi-Res NWP (Exp’l) > HRRRTime-Lag Trials DevRUC Time-Lag Trials Op’l NWP > GFS LAMP PDF MOS >

6. FY10 – Trials and internal evaluations FY10 NCVF V2 Tests NCVF V1 Concept Tests Hi-Res NWP (Exp’l) > HRRRTime-Lag Trials DevRUC > RR Time-Lag Trials SREF – Trials If Operational Op’l NWP > GFS LAMP PDF MOS >

7. FY11 – V1 Freeze for D3 Evaluation & Decision V2 Further Component Development FY11 NCVF V2 Tests Consolidated Product > CoSPATrials ? NCVF V1 D3 in Qtr 4 Obs-Based Site Fcst > NCV Ruleset1-5 hr Trials Freeze Hi-Res NWP (Exp’l) > HRRRTime-Lag Trials DevRUC > RR Time-Lag Trials SREF – Trials If Operational Op’l NWP > GFS LAMP PDF MOS >

8. FY12 – V1 runs as Experimental Product V2 Explore HRRR, Ruleset & CoSPA FY12 NCVF V2 Tests Consolidated Product > CoSPATrials NCVF V1 Experimental Obs-Based Site Fcst > NCV Ruleset1-5 hr Trials Hi-Res NWP (Exp’l) > HRRRTime-Lag Trials C&V SKILL CONSOLIDATED Rapid Refresh Time-Lag Ensemble SREF Operational Op’l NWP > GFS LAMP PDF MOS >

9. ? HRRRTime-Lag Ensemble FY13 Qtr 4 – NCVF V1 Reaches D4 Decision FY13 NCVF V2 Tests Consolidated Product > CoSPATrials NCVF V1 D4 in Qtr 4 Obs-Based Site Fcst > NCV Ruleset1-5 hr Trials Freeze Hi-Res NWP (Exp’l) > HRRRTime-Lag Ensemble C&V SKILL CONSOLIDATED Rapid Refresh Time-Lag Ensemble SREF Operational Op’l NWP > GFS LAMP PDF MOS >

10. Comments? Next Topic – Storm Forecasting

11. Collaborative Storm Predictionfor Aviation (CoSPA) • Goal: • Consolidation of a plethora of different convective & winter weather forecast products into a single prediction system for aviation that builds upon best available techniques & algorithms • Collaborative effort between MIT/LL (lead), NCAR/RAL, & NOAA/GSD • Sponsor & Funding: • FAA Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) • Major Focus Areas: • Blending of extrapolation & NWP forecasts • Numerical modeling & data assimilation • Forecast uncertainty • User interaction • Monitoring past 6 hours (CONUS) • Forecasting 0-2 hours (CONUS) • Forecasting 2-6 hours (HRRR, red box)

12. Strategy: Multiple Forecast Methods NWP – NOAA/ESRL Blending - NCAR Extrapolation – MIT/LL Blending warm start cold start Numerical Models Extrapolation Forecast Lead Time (hours) Extrapolation(full CONUS) Blend of Extrapolation & HRRR(HRRR domain) Perfect Forecast Skill Little 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

13. Time Series View25 Feb 09 Radar Obs of VIL – Vertically integrated liquid water equivalent. Frames 1-3 -2h to present Frames 4-5 1h extrap fcsts Frames 6-9 1h blended fcsts

14. Time Series View25 Feb 09 Radar Obs of VIL – Vertically integrated liquid water equivalent. Frames 1-3 -2h to present Frames 4-5 1h extrap fcsts Frames 6-9 1h blended fcsts Other Capabilities - Overlay Radar Validation - Highlight 15 min growth/decay trends - Echo tops - Lightning - Satellite imagery - Archive mode

15. NWP Support for CoSPA HRRR FY09 High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) • FY08 • Special 15 min output freq • 3 hour latency • Did not have dedicated resources • Small domain hindered simulation particularly S&W Current RUC-13 CONUS domain HRRR • FY09 • Dedicated resources • Improved reliability • 15 min echo tops • Expanded domain should improve performance and eliminate edge effects.

16. Demonstration Plans 2009 For Summer 2009 - Add blended forecasts of Echo Tops - Extend VIL and Echo Tops to 8 hrs (across HRRR domain) - Feed to FAA Operations (Command Center) for evaluation. - Updates every 15 mins - Coverage: 0-2 Hour CONUS 2-8 Hour HRRR Domain Contacts - Dr. Matthias Steiner (NCAR) msteiner@ucar.edu - Dr. Marilyn Wolfson (MIT/LL) wolfson@ll.mit.edu - Dr. Stan Benjamin (NOAA/ESRL) stan.benjamin@noaa.gov

17. Have a good lunch, folks.