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Meteorology 415

Meteorology 415. Contest 3 Springfield and St. Louis, Missouri November 2, 2011. Springfield, MO. Springfield, MO.

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Meteorology 415

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  1. Meteorology 415 Contest 3 Springfield and St. Louis, Missouri November 2, 2011

  2. Springfield, MO

  3. Springfield, MO FAA Identifier:  SGF Lat/Long:  37-14-44.4000N / 093-23-19.1000W37-14.740000N / 093-23.318333W37.2456667 / -93.3886389(estimated) Elevation:  1268 ft. / 386.5 m (surveyed) Variation:  03E (2000) From city:  5 miles NW of SPRINGFIELD, MO

  4. Springfield Observations • KSGF 022352Z 16013KT 10SM CLR 18/09 A2989 RMK AO2 SLP117 T01830094 10217 20183 58012= • KSGF 030052Z 15015G22KT 10SM OVC070 18/10 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP102 T01780100= • KSGF 030152Z 17016G23KT 10SM -RA BKN060 OVC100 17/11 A2981 RMK AO2 RAB42 SLP091 P0000 T01670111= • KSGF 030252Z 17015KT 10SM SCT040 BKN065 OVC100 16/12 A2981 RMK AO2 RAE49 SLP090 P0001 60001 T01560122 56025= • KSGF 030306Z 28020G32KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR FEW010 BKN036 OVC095 14/13 A2987 RMK AO2 PK WND 26032/0305 WSHFT 0250 RAB0253 PRESRR P0002= • KSGF 030309Z 30013G32KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR SCT010 BKN025 OVC065 12/12 A2988 RMK AO2 PK WND 26032/0305 WSHFT 0255 RAB0253 PRESRR P0006= • KSGF 030309Z 30013G32KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR SCT010 BKN025 OVC065 12/12A2988= • KSGF 030306Z 28020G32KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR FEW010 BKN036 OVC095 14/13A2987= • KSGF 030314Z 31015G32KT 2SM +RA BR SCT006 BKN025 OVC036 10/09 A2988 RMK AO2 PK WND 26032/0305 WSHFT 0255 RAB0253 P0016= • KSGF 030319Z 31014G23KT 4SM +RA BR BKN006 BKN013 OVC038 09/09 A2988 RMK AO2 PK WND 26032/0305 WSHFT 0255 RAB0253 P0017= • KSGF 030314Z 31015G32KT 2SM +RA BR SCT006 BKN025 OVC036 10/09A2= • KSGF 030352Z 03009KT 6SM RA BR SCT006 BKN045 OVC070 08/08 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 26032/0305 WSHFT 0255 RAB0253 SLP108 P0036 T00780078= • KSGF 030410Z 01006KT 10SM -RA BKN006 OVC049 08/08 A2987 RMK AO2 P0003= • KSGF 030452Z 31007KT 10SM OVC004 07/07 A2989 RMK AO2 RAE16 SLP120 P0003 T00720067= • KSGF 030552Z 32009KT 4SM -RA BR BKN004 BKN009 OVC025 06/06 A2984 RMK AO2 RAB0459 PRESFR SLP102 P0001 60041 T00610061 10183 20061 402170061 50009= • KSGF 030609Z 29008KT 9SM OVC006 06/06 A2986 RMK AO2 RAE0558 P0000= • KSGF 030629Z 28016G23KT 8SM OVC004 05/04 A2988 RMK AO2 RAE0558 P0000= • KSGF 030652Z 28020G26KT 5SM -RA BR BKN006 OVC010 04/04 A2989 RMK AO2 PK WND 29026/0649 RAE0558B41 SLP118 P0001 T00440039= • KSGF 030747Z 29014G30KT 7SM -RA OVC010 03/03 A2991 RMK AO2 PK WND 28031/0735 P0001= • KSGF 030752Z 30014G24KT 9SM -RA OVC010 03/02 A2991 RMK AO2 PK WND 28031/0735 SLP128 P0001 T00330022= • KSGF 030811Z 30015G23KT 10SM -RA OVC008 03/02 A2992 RMK AO2 P0001= • KSGF 030852Z 30015G21KT 7SM -RA OVC008 03/02 A2992 RMK AO2 CIG 006V012 SLP132 P0002 60004 T00280022 51012= • KSGF 030952Z 30012G20KT 4SM -RA BR OVC006 02/02 A2994 RMK AO2 PK WND 31029/0917 UPB30E31 SLP136 P0000 T00220017=

  5. Synoptic Pattern What’s that?

  6. Surface Analysis

  7. Radar Snow Rain

  8. Verifications

  9. Standings for Springfield, MO

  10. COMPARE

  11. Standings for Springfield, MO

  12. Springfield, MO – Lessons Learned • Precise timing of the front was critical to success on this forecast • When possible, use many methods to estimate FROPA • SREF • NAM Radar • MOS and DMO • Duo-digital method!

  13. St. Louis, MO

  14. St. Louis, MO FAA Identifier:  STL Lat/Long:  38-44-55.3100N / 090-22-12.1040W38-44.921833N / 090-22.201733W38.7486972 / -90.3700289(estimated) Elevation:  618 ft. / 188.4 m (surveyed) Variation:  00E (2000) From city:  10 miles NW of ST LOUIS, MO

  15. St. Louis Observations • KSTL 022351Z 16012KT 10SM SCT150 BKN200 20/07 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP143 T02000067 10244 20200 51005= • KSTL 030051Z 17014G19KT 10SM BKN200 19/08 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP139 T01890083= • KSTL 030151Z 17013KT 10SM SCT150 OVC200 18/08 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP130 T01830083= • KSTL 030251Z 17014KT 10SM SCT150 BKN200 18/06 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP122 T01780061 58020= • KSTL 030351Z 17012KT 10SM FEW130 BKN200 17/06 A2989 RMK AO2 SLP115 T01720056= • KSTL 030451Z 17011KT 10SM BKN100 BKN200 17/06 A2985 RMK AO2 SLP103 T01720056= • KSTL 030551Z 20006KT 5SM RA BKN060 OVC085 15/08 A2986 RMK AO2 RAB36 SLP106 P0003 60003 T01500083 10200 20150 402440094 55013= • KSTL 030636Z 33004KT 4SM RA BKN041 OVC060 13/10 A2985 RMK AO2 P0010= • KSTL 030646Z 29009KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR SCT028 OVC039 12/11 A2989 RMK AO2 PRESRR P0016= • KSTL 030651Z 31009KT 3SM RA BR BKN030 OVC039 12/11 A2990 RMK AO2 SLP117 P0021 T01220106= • KSTL 030740Z 11008KT 4SM RA BR BKN050 OVC060 12/11 A2984 RMK AO2 P0020= • KSTL 030751Z 12007KT 4SM RA BR OVC048 12/11 A2984 RMK AO2 SLP099 P0024 T01170106= • KSTL 030833Z 13010KT 3SM -RA BR FEW005 BKN039 OVC065 12/11 A2981 RMK AO2 P0013= • KSTL 030851Z 11011KT 4SM -RA BR FEW005 BKN039 OVC075 12/11 A2979 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP080 P0020 60065 T01170106 58035= • KSTL 030917Z 11012KT 3SM -RA BR BKN006 OVC055 11/10 A2976 RMK AO2 P0002= • KSTL 030951Z 09017G22KT 4SM -RA BR SCT006 BKN046 OVC070 11/10 A2968 RMK AO2 PRESFR SLP046 P0006 T01110100= • KSTL 031003Z 12015KT 5SM -RA BR SCT008 OVC075 11/10 A2970 RMK AO2 P0001= • KSTL 030951Z 09017G22KT 4SM -RA BR SCT006 BKN046 OVC070 11/10 A2968= • KSTL 031003Z 12015KT 5SM -RA BR SCT008 OVC075 11/10 A2970=

  16. Synoptic Pattern

  17. Surface Analysis

  18. Radar

  19. Verifications

  20. Standings for St. Louis

  21. COMPARE

  22. St. Louis – Lessons Learned • Front can have complex structure, so be aware of a couple of surges of cooler air. • Favored jet streak position can enhance precipitation amounts • Trajectory of the air flow will increase moisture content….the longer the air flows from a moist source, the higher the precip rates.. • DON’T forecast for the same city twice 

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