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Evaluating Student Proficiency in Short-Term Weather Forecasting at the University of Washington

This study evaluates daily forecast scores for students in ATMS 452, a weather analysis and forecasting course at the University of Washington, over spring terms from 1997 to 2007. We explore how senior undergraduate students develop proficiency in short-term weather forecasting. Analysis reveals an overall improvement in forecast skills in the first six weeks, followed by minimal changes. Trends in average forecast skill remain negligible over the past decade. This research aids the development of effective instructional programs for weather forecasting.

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Evaluating Student Proficiency in Short-Term Weather Forecasting at the University of Washington

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  1. Meteorology 415 Fall 2009

  2. Weather & Forecasting- Aug 2009 ABSTRACT • Daily values of forecast scores are evaluated for students in a weather analysis and forecasting class (ATMS 452) offered by the Department of Atmospheric Sciences of the University of Washington during the spring terms of 1997–2007. The objective of this study is to determine the rate at which senior-level undergraduate students develop proficiency at short-term (next day) weather forecasting. Separate analyses are carried out for different categories of forecast parameters. Time series of the average skill achieved over the course of the quarter are presented for the median and the best–worst two student forecasters each year. An overall improvement in student forecast skill occurs over roughly the first 6 weeks of the quarter, followed by minimal systematic changes. Negligible trends in average forecast skill have occurred over the past 10 yr. The correlation coefficient between the students’ overall forecast performance and test scores in ATMS 452 is about 0.4. The results are relevant to the design of effective instructional programs for weather forecasting.

  3. Development of Forecast Skill More Deterministic with Bins for Precipitation

  4. Development of Forecast Skill Forecast Types are analogous to our Temps/Precip/Winds/Events

  5. Development of Forecast Skill

  6. Development of Forecast Skill

  7. Development of a Grandpa

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