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FEBRUARY 2009

FEBRUARY 2009. Global economic growth: no decoupling (Real GDP, % change). 200 7 200 8 200 9 2010 World 4. 9 3.3 0.7 2.8 U.S. 2.0 1.3 -1.9 2.7 Japan 2. 1 -0.5 -3.5 1.5 Euro-15 2. 6 0 .8 -2.3 1.0 Asia x-Japan 9.5 6.9 5.1 6.7 Canada 2.7 0.5 -1.2 2.2

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FEBRUARY 2009

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  1. FEBRUARY 2009

  2. Global economic growth: no decoupling(Real GDP, % change) 2007 2008 2009 2010 World4.9 3.3 0.72.8 U.S. 2.0 1.3 -1.9 2.7 Japan 2.1 -0.5 -3.5 1.5 Euro-15 2.6 0.8 -2.3 1.0 Asia x-Japan 9.5 6.9 5.1 6.7 Canada 2.7 0.5 -1.2 2.2 British Columbia 3.0 2.0 -1.0 2.1 Québec 2.6 1.0 -1.0 2.0 Ontario 2.3 -0.3 -1.7 2.3 (Forecast date: February 2009) Source : LBS Economics, Credit Suisse

  3. Financial Stress: « Ted Spread »Spread between 3-month Libor and T-Bills

  4. U.S. Economic Indicators

  5. U.S. Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP

  6. U.S. Economic Indicators: Dismal labour market 6

  7. U.S. Economic Indicators: Dismal labour market 7

  8. U.S. Economic Indicators: Dismal labour market 8

  9. U.S. house prices: the decline accelerates since July 2008 9

  10. U.S. housing market hits a wall

  11. U.S. Housing: is there a silver lining?

  12. Credit Bubble ? 12

  13. What about Canada?

  14. Too much debt?

  15. The Canadian economy depends on international trade

  16. « …that, which is not sustainable, cannot be sustained. » 16

  17. U.S. Trade Balance 17

  18. Canadian dollar sharply lower

  19. Canadian Trade surplus vanishes

  20. Central Bank Policy Rates: massive monetary easing

  21. Canadian banks still lending (annual % ch)

  22. North American unemployment ratesU.S. Canada

  23. Year-over-year change in the rate of unemployment

  24. B.C. Fiscal Update

  25. B.C. Public Debt

  26. Canadian housing affordability

  27. Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent 27

  28. How low could markets go ? 28

  29. How low could markets go ? 29

  30. Investment conclusion 2009 Model Portfolio Equities: 55% Bonds: 35% Cash: 10% Key points: - Be patient - Adjust portfolio - Favour US stocks (25%) 30

  31. Credit Bubble ? 31

  32. Credit Bubble ? 32

  33. Credit Bubble ? 33

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