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Global Economic Growth Trends: February 2009 Analysis

Review of global economic growth trends in February 2009, highlighting key indicators and forecasts for various regions. Insights on GDP changes, trade balances, central bank policies, and market outlook.

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Global Economic Growth Trends: February 2009 Analysis

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  1. FEBRUARY 2009

  2. Global economic growth: no decoupling(Real GDP, % change) 2007 2008 2009 2010 World4.9 3.3 0.72.8 U.S. 2.0 1.3 -1.9 2.7 Japan 2.1 -0.5 -3.5 1.5 Euro-15 2.6 0.8 -2.3 1.0 Asia x-Japan 9.5 6.9 5.1 6.7 Canada 2.7 0.5 -1.2 2.2 British Columbia 3.0 2.0 -1.0 2.1 Québec 2.6 1.0 -1.0 2.0 Ontario 2.3 -0.3 -1.7 2.3 (Forecast date: February 2009) Source : LBS Economics, Credit Suisse

  3. Financial Stress: « Ted Spread »Spread between 3-month Libor and T-Bills

  4. U.S. Economic Indicators

  5. U.S. Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP

  6. U.S. Economic Indicators: Dismal labour market 6

  7. U.S. Economic Indicators: Dismal labour market 7

  8. U.S. Economic Indicators: Dismal labour market 8

  9. U.S. house prices: the decline accelerates since July 2008 9

  10. U.S. housing market hits a wall

  11. U.S. Housing: is there a silver lining?

  12. Credit Bubble ? 12

  13. What about Canada?

  14. Too much debt?

  15. The Canadian economy depends on international trade

  16. « …that, which is not sustainable, cannot be sustained. » 16

  17. U.S. Trade Balance 17

  18. Canadian dollar sharply lower

  19. Canadian Trade surplus vanishes

  20. Central Bank Policy Rates: massive monetary easing

  21. Canadian banks still lending (annual % ch)

  22. North American unemployment ratesU.S. Canada

  23. Year-over-year change in the rate of unemployment

  24. B.C. Fiscal Update

  25. B.C. Public Debt

  26. Canadian housing affordability

  27. Markets can remain illogical longer than you or I can remain solvent 27

  28. How low could markets go ? 28

  29. How low could markets go ? 29

  30. Investment conclusion 2009 Model Portfolio Equities: 55% Bonds: 35% Cash: 10% Key points: - Be patient - Adjust portfolio - Favour US stocks (25%) 30

  31. Credit Bubble ? 31

  32. Credit Bubble ? 32

  33. Credit Bubble ? 33

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