Challenges and Opportunities for a Low Carbon FutureA few elements from WBG analyses Marianne Fay With thanks to Stephane Hallegatte and Adrien Vogt-Schilb Climate Change Group The World Bank Group
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Emissions should be reduced, but How? when? With what tools?
Emissions should be reduced, but The answer depends on the end goal
Figure WG3.6.17. Development of carbon intensity vs. final energy intensity reduction relative to 2010 in selected baseline, and mitigation scenarios reaching 550 and 450 ppm CO2-e concentrations in 2100
Reaching a shorter-term target through cheap options (supply curve approach) would cause carbon-intensive lock-in 2030 target 2020 target No time to do this between 2010-2020 (you’d need a specific curve for 2020) To be an option in the long term these need short-term support No time to do this in 2020-2030 time 12
Technology diffusion (Share of sales, not stock)
Illustrating the win-wins • 3 interventions: • Clean transport (EE and increased public transport) • Improved industrial energy efficiency • More energy efficient buildings and appliances • In 6 regions • EU, US, Brazil, China, India, Mexico • Enough to deliver 30% of CO2e reduction by 2030 • Achieved through regulations, tax, incentives
Different instruments for different sectors Should be implementable at current prices: non-price policies (e.g., standards for light)
Different instruments for different sectors Can be triggered by a slowly increasing carbon price Should be implemented at current prices: non-price policies(e.g., standards for light)
Different instruments for different sectors Can be triggered by a slowly increasing carbon price Should be implemented at current prices: non-price policies(e.g., standards for light) Requires sectoral plans for buildings, transport, urban, energy, etc.
And its necessary complements • Performance standards – buildings, cars • Rules and regulations • Public investments – public transport, innovation • Fiscal instruments • Sector-scale action plans – urban plans For predictability, credibility and political acceptability
The elements of a low-carbon strategy climatechange.worldbank.org http://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/pricing-carbon#1