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Progress Update on AdcircLite-NC Project: Cross-Validation Enhancements and New Metrics

In the latest update for the AdcircLite-NC Project, significant progress has been made since the last meeting. We completed cross-validation using various perturbation scenarios, including a newly augmented parameter set that describes the distance along intersections defined by latitude parallels DB_latP1 and DB_latP2. These parameters proved more effective in characterizing storm populations compared to previous models. Additionally, we've defined new error metrics that enhance the evaluation of our cross-validation runs, focusing on distance separation between track line intersections and reference longitudes.

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Progress Update on AdcircLite-NC Project: Cross-Validation Enhancements and New Metrics

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  1. AdcircLite-NC Project Updates Jesse Bikman Brian Blanton

  2. Progress since last meeting • Ran cross validation with different parameters included/excluded (perturbation scenarios) • Augmented parameter set with DB_latP1/DB_latP2 describing distance along intersection with given latitude parallels • DB_latP1/DB_latP2 better characterizes the storm population than TH/DB • Defined some new error metrics to supplement evaluation of cross validation runs

  3. New Distance Parameters Longitude separation between track line intersection point and reference longitudes on latitudes 34.5 and 36.0 N DB_latP2 DB_latP1

  4. Parameter perturbation scenarios We have adopted the 2 latitude distances in lieu of the distance/angle parameters.

  5. Error metrics Si = original model value at response point i S*i = surrogate model value at response point i Ei = error at response point i = S*i – Si N = total # response points M = # response points where 0.5(Si + S*i) > threshold value

  6. Scenario Statistics

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