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Progress Updates on AdcircLite-NC: Cross-Validation and Parameter Enhancements

In the recent project meeting, we discussed the progress made on the AdcircLite-NC initiative. Significant advancements include cross-validation using various perturbation scenarios, including new distance parameters DB_latP1 and DB_latP2, which better characterize storm populations compared to traditional metrics. We introduced new error metrics to enhance our evaluation of the models, focusing on the longitudinal separation between track line intersection points and reference longitudes for latitudes 34.5 and 36.0. These efforts aim to improve model accuracy and reliability.

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Progress Updates on AdcircLite-NC: Cross-Validation and Parameter Enhancements

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  1. AdcircLite-NC Project Updates Jesse Bikman Brian Blanton

  2. Progress since last meeting • Ran cross validation with different parameters included/excluded (perturbation scenarios) • Augmented parameter set with DB_latP1/DB_latP2 describing distance along intersection with given latitude parallels • DB_latP1/DB_latP2 better characterizes the storm population than TH/DB • Defined some new error metrics to supplement evaluation of cross validation runs

  3. New Distance Parameters Longitude separation between track line intersection point and reference longitudes on latitudes 34.5 and 36.0 N DB_latP2 DB_latP1

  4. Parameter perturbation scenarios We have adopted the 2 latitude distances in lieu of the distance/angle parameters.

  5. Error metrics Si = original model value at response point i S*i = surrogate model value at response point i Ei = error at response point i = S*i – Si N = total # response points M = # response points where 0.5(Si + S*i) > threshold value

  6. Scenario Statistics

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