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Progress in modeling human population fronts

FEPRE European project 2 nd annual workshop St Petersburg 5-10 April 2008. Progress in modeling human population fronts. Joaquim Fort Universitat de Girona Catalonia, Spain. FEPRE work by the Girona group. Manchester 2007 (1 st FEPRE workshop): 1. Time-ordered models → SUBMITTED 

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Progress in modeling human population fronts

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  1. FEPRE European project 2nd annual workshop St Petersburg 5-10 April 2008 Progress in modeling human population fronts Joaquim Fort Universitat de Girona Catalonia, Spain

  2. FEPRE work by the Girona group Manchester 2007 (1st FEPRE workshop): 1. Time-ordered models →SUBMITTED 2. Realistic dispersion kernels →IN PROGRESS 3. Non-isotropic models →PLANNED … 4. Genetic clines →PLANNED …

  3. FEPRE work by the Girona group St. Petersburg 2008 (2nd FEPRE workshop): 1. Time-ordered models →Phys. Rev. E 76, 031913 (2007) 2. Realistic dispersion kernels →talk by N. Isern 3. Non-isotropic models →New J. Phys. 76, 031913 (2007) 4. Genetic clines →2-population models →New J. Phys. in press (2008) → talk by J. Pérez-Losada IMPACT FACTOR (SCI ) JOURNAL             7                      Phys. Rev. Lett. 4 New J. Phys. 2 Phys. Rev. E

  4. Recent progress Girona group: • Non-isotropic models→New J. Phys.76 031913 (2007) Other groups: • M.J. Hamilton & B. Buchanan, PNAS104 15625 (2007) • G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS104 8714 (2007) IMPACT FACTOR (SCI ) JOURNAL    31                     Science            29                     Nature             14PLoS Biology  10                     PNAS              7                      Phys. Rev. Lett. 4 New J. Phys. 2 Phys. Rev. E

  5. Plan of this talk • Time-delayed equation • Hamilton & Buchanan, PNAS (2007) Girona group: • Non-isotropic models→New J. Phys. (2007) • G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS (2007)

  6. Recall < F+M, Phys. Rev. Lett. (1999)

  7. Hamilton & Buchanan, PNAS 104 15625 (2007)

  8. Hamilton & Buchanan, PNAS 104 15625 (2007) → predicted speed: 2 km/yr → observed speed: 8 km/yr

  9. Human prehistoric range expansion speeds

  10. Non-isotropic models · Manchester group: · Davison, Dolukhanov, Sarson & Shukurov, J. Arch. Sci. (2006) · FEPRE project application · Girona group: F & Pujol,New J. Phys.76 031913 (2007) isotropic non-isotropic

  11. Girona group: Non-isotropic models F & Pujol,New J. Phys.76 031913 (2007) front non-isotropic

  12. Human colonization of the U.S. during the XIX century Individual migrations are biased against the front propagation direction

  13. X→F or F→ X cultural competition (λ=0→Aoki, no cultural boundaries) H→X acculturation G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS 104 8714 (2007) F= farmers with neolithic language, genes, etc.H= hunter-gatherers with paleolithic language, genes, etc.X= converts = farmers with paleolithic language, genes, etc.

  14. G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS 104 8714 (2007)

  15. G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS 104 8714 (2007) Neolithic culture & genes Paleolithic culture & genes This is the only model known to predict cultural boundaries

  16. Open problems Data from Pinhasi, Fort & Ammerman, PLoS Biol (2005) Impact Factor (SCI)=14

  17. Open problems Data from Pinhasi, Fort & Ammerman, PLoS Biol (2005) Impact Factor (SCI)=14

  18. Recent progressVlad, Cavalli-Sforza & Ross, PNAS 101 10249 (2004)Currant & Excoffier, Proc. Roy. Soc. B 272 679 (2005)Open problemComparison between simulated & observed clines Spread of genetic mutations

  19. Aims of the FEPRE projectArchaeological data + mathematical modelling → denied (2005)Roots in prehistory of present socio-cultural diversity → approved (2006)

  20. Open problem

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