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Lian Pin Koh, PhD Ecosystem Management Group Department of Environmental Sciences

Balancing Society’s Priorities Reconciling agricultural expansion, forest protection and carbon conservation in Indonesia. Lian Pin Koh, PhD Ecosystem Management Group Department of Environmental Sciences. More mouths to feed. Higher quality food. (Beef makes you a stronger man).

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Lian Pin Koh, PhD Ecosystem Management Group Department of Environmental Sciences

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  1. Balancing Society’s Priorities Reconciling agricultural expansion, forest protection and carbon conservation in Indonesia Lian Pin Koh, PhD Ecosystem Management Group Department of Environmental Sciences

  2. More mouths to feed...

  3. Higher quality food... (Beef makes you a stronger man)

  4. More energy...

  5. Conserve biodiversity...

  6. Cap GHG emissions...

  7. Sustain development and livelihoods...

  8. Energy Food Development Biodiversity Emissions

  9. Food or fuel?

  10. Biodiversity or food?

  11. Energy Food Development Biodiversity Emissions

  12. Trade-offn. a situation that involves losing one quality or aspect of something in return for gaining anotherquality or aspect. It implies a decision to be made with full comprehension of the upside and downside of any choice.

  13. Develop science-based decision-support tools to help decision makers evaluate trade-offs of pursuing alternative development options.

  14. Where & How?

  15. Development pathways (scenarios) Food production: Avoid areas suitable for food cultivation Production target Forest preservation: Target degraded areas & avoid forests Business-As-Usual: Target most productive areas for oil palm Carbon conservation: Avoid lands rich in carbon Hybrid strategy: Consider all priorities Current production

  16. Outcome variables… Forests & biodiversity Area required for oil palm Food production capacity Carbon stocks

  17. GIS data layers: Overall land-use land-cover (WRI, MoF, Sekala) Suitability for oil palm (FAO-IIASA) Suitability for rice (FAO-IIASA) Biomass carbon (Ruesch & Gibbs) Peat soil carbon (WRI, MoF, Sekala)

  18. B A D est vailable ata

  19. GIS data layers: New GIS layer of intersected polygons (n>500,000): Overall land-use land-cover (WRI, MoF, Sekala) Suitability for oil palm (FAO-IIASA) Suitability for rice (FAO-IIASA) Biomass carbon (Ruesch & Gibbs) Peat soil carbon (WRI, MoF, Sekala)

  20. New GIS layer of intersected polygons (n>500,000):

  21. New GIS layer of intersected polygons (n>500,000): • Each polygon assigned conversion probabilities… • BAU: proportional to relative oil-palm yield • Food production: inversely proportional to rice yield • Forest preservation: inv. proportional to habitat quality • Carbon conservation: inv. proportional to C-stock • Hybrid scenario: BAU*Food*Forest*Carbon

  22. Download from: www.lianpinkoh.com

  23. http://dl.dropbox.com/u/939465/ScenarioAnalysis_PNAS.swf Download from: www.lianpinkoh.com

  24. Priority areas for oil palm development under Hybrid scenario Download from: www.lianpinkoh.com

  25. Future Add-ons Financial returns Livelihoods … and others Download from: www.lianpinkoh.com

  26. Conclusion • Every single-priority scenario produced tradeoffs in other priorities

  27. Conclusion • Every single-priority scenario produced tradeoffs in other priorities • Tradeoffs could be minimized through implementation of properly planned and spatially explicit development strategy

  28. Thank you for your attention! (More information: www.lianpinkoh.com)

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