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The Future of Wireless

The Future of Wireless. Adam Drobot President, Advanced Technology Solutions and CTO Telcordia Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA adrobot@telcordia.com. Keynote Talk IEEE Wireless Communications Networks Conference – WCNC 2010 19 April 2010 Sydney, Australia.

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The Future of Wireless

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  1. The Future of Wireless Adam Drobot President, Advanced Technology Solutions and CTO Telcordia Piscataway, NJ 08854, USA adrobot@telcordia.com Keynote Talk IEEE Wireless Communications Networks Conference – WCNC 2010 19 April 2010 Sydney, Australia www.telcordia.comwww.argreenhouse.com

  2. Abstract • Starting with the early 1990’s, almost from nothing, a set of global networks were created with stunning speed and equally stunning commitment of capital • These networks and servers reach over 3 Billion people on the planet • They account for well over half the business activity of service providers • Mobile services involve components touching many technologies, which are on exponential trajectories • We have seen an explosion of devices, services, and applications • Consumers and users of these services have often surprised us with what they will spend money on • The impact on people’s lives and institutions has been profound

  3. Abstract (cont’d) We are about to embark on the next chapter of the mobile revolution where the global impact on the way we live and interact with each other will be even more dramatic New unifying infrastructure build around LTE and IP Extension to direct communication between devices A driving force in economic growth around the world affecting all industries, governments, and individuals Change in people’s life styles Changes in who the players are for us in the industry A global shift in where research and development will occur

  4. Agenda • Trends and Projections • Adoption Curves (long term views) • Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future • Global Penetration • Infrastructure • Technologies • User Equipment • Computing & Storage • Software • Networks • Roadmaps • Digitization – Beyond 4G • Stages and Evolution • The 5G and 6G World • IP as an Integration Enabler • Explosion of Services • Questions & Answers

  5. Agenda • Trends and Projections • Adoption Curves (long term views) • Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future • Global Penetration • Infrastructure • Technologies • User Equipment • Computing & Storage • Software • Networks • Roadmaps • Digitization – Beyond 4G • Stages and Evolution • The 5G and 6G World • IP as an Integration Enabler • Explosion of Services • Questions & Answers

  6. Adoption: US Wireless Subscribers

  7. Adoption: Consumer Adoption Curves, US

  8. Wireless Adoption Milestones • 2007: Wireless-only households exceed wireline-only households in US • 2008: ICT* is 7% of US GDP and still growing! • 2009: Half the world uses cell phones * Information-communication-technology producing industries (ICT): Consists of computer and electronic products; publishing industries (includes software); information and data processing services; and computer systems design and related services. (US BEA)

  9. Agenda • Trends and Projections • Adoption Curves (long term views) • Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future • Global Penetration • Infrastructure • Technologies • User Equipment • Computing & Storage • Software • Networks • Roadmaps • Digitization – Beyond 4G • Stages and Evolution • The 5G and 6G World • IP as an Integration Enabler • Explosion of Services • Questions & Answers

  10. Wireless-only Households in Canada and the US Source: CRTC: Convergence Policy, Policy Development & Research, Feb 2010

  11. Demographic Groups Most Likely to be Cellular Only % Cellphone-Only, Apr 2007

  12. Percentage of US Households without Landline Telephones

  13. Projected North American Business Use of Landline and Cell Phones

  14. Phone Behavior by Age in Single-Person Households Source: Mediamark Research Inc. Survey of the American Consumer (Waves 56)

  15. Agenda • Trends and Projections • Adoption Curves (long term views) • Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future • Global Penetration • Infrastructure • Technologies • User Equipment • Computing & Storage • Software • Networks • Roadmaps • Digitization – Beyond 4G • Stages and Evolution • The 5G and 6G World • IP as an Integration Enabler • Explosion of Services • Questions & Answers

  16. Global Trends: World View over 14 Years • 153 countries, 1995 – 2008 • Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 population • Mobile Subscriptions per 100 population • Internet Users per 100 population • Broadband Subscribers per 100 population Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue

  17. Global Trends – Fixed Telephone Lines Fixed Telephone Lines Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue

  18. Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  19. Germany Canada U.K. Switz. Taiwan Iceland Malta Korea Sweden China Lux. Russia U.S. Viet Nam Norway Australia India New Zealand Myanmar Qatar Japan Kuwait Niger Burundi Eq. Guinea Malaysia Papua New Guinea South Africa Indonesia Global Trends Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  20. Global Trends – Mobile Subscriptions Mobile Subscriptions Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue

  21. Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  22. U.A.E Bahrain Italy Estonia Lithuania U.K. Russia Bulgaria Lux. Qatar Ukraine Switz. Indonesia Norway Viet Nam Australia. Gambia New Zealand U.S. Niger Korea Canada Burundi Japan Taiwan Eq. Guinea China India Papua New Guinea Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  23. Global Trends – Internet Users Internet Users Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue

  24. Global Trends Internet Users per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  25. Iceland Holland Canada Sweden Norway Japan Taiwan Switz. Lux. Korea Malaysia U.S. Australia New Zealand China Spain Italy Viet Nam Qatar Kuwait Burundi Russia Portugal Indonesia India Niger Eq. Guinea Papua New Guinea Global Trends Internet Users per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  26. Global Trends – Broadband Subscribers Broadband Subscribers Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue

  27. Global Trends Broadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  28. Sweden Holland Denmark Korea Canada Switz. Iceland U.K. Japan New Zealand Norway Lux. Taiwan Germany Australia U.S. China Chile Spain Russia India Italy Viet Nam Portugal Russia Qatar Kuwait Niger Myanmar Eq. Guinea Indonesia Global Trends Broadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010

  29. Global Trends – Over 14 Years Continuing… Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue

  30. Global Trends – Mobile Penetration by Region – 2007 & 2008

  31. Global Trends: Adoption by Developing Nations Source: Wireless Communications – Q2 2006 Topical

  32. Global Trends: Wired vs. Wireless Crossover

  33. ARPU -- Data as % of Total, by Country Source: Chetan Sharma 2008

  34. Wireless Data ARPU for Major Operators Worldwide Source: Chetan Sharma 2008

  35. Agenda • Trends and Projections • Adoption Curves (long term views) • Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future • Global Penetration • Infrastructure • Technologies • User Equipment • Computing & Storage • Software • Networks • Roadmaps • Digitization – Beyond 4G • Stages and Evolution • The 5G and 6G World • IP as an Integration Enabler • Explosion of Services • Questions & Answers

  36. US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010 Pre-cellular 1982 1996 2010

  37. US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010 1996 (red = new in 1996) 1982 1996 2010

  38. US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010 2010 1982 1996 2010

  39. Australian Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010 Pre-cellular 1982 1996 2010

  40. Australian Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010 1996 (red = new in 1996) 1982 1996 2010

  41. Australian Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010 2010 1982 1996 2010

  42. Cellular Sites in the US – 1985-2009 Source: CTIA

  43. Mobile Sites in Australia – 1985-2009 Mobile Sites Data source: ACMA

  44. Agenda • Trends and Projections • Adoption Curves (long term views) • Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future • Global Penetration • Infrastructure • Technologies • User Equipment • Computing & Storage • Software • Networks • Roadmaps • Digitization – Beyond 4G • Stages and Evolution • The 5G and 6G World • IP as an Integration Enabler • Explosion of Services • Questions & Answers

  45. Agenda • Trends and Projections • Adoption Curves (long term views) • Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future • Global Penetration • Infrastructure • Technologies • User Equipment • Computing & Storage • Software • Networks • Roadmaps • Digitization – Beyond 4G • Stages and Evolution • The 5G and 6G World • IP as an Integration Enabler • Explosion of Services • Questions & Answers

  46. Mobile TransformationsThe 5 Year Cycles ?? Source: IDC

  47. Mobile Transformations – Looking Forward Source: IDC

  48. Cellphone Milestones BlackBerry ? First SmartPhone -- touch screen, pager, calculator, calendar, fax, e-mail ? First TV ad ? Open Source OS LG 1991 1990 1989 1992 2010 IBM Simon Android 1988 2009 1993 1987 In movies Motorola 2008 Wi-Fi-cellular handoff 1994 Sony-Ericsson iDEN digital iPhone 1986 App Store Polyphonic Ringtones 2007 1995 Nokia Sharp – first CameraPhone 1.9 trillion text msgs in 2007 StarTAC 1985 2006 Motorola “brick” 1996 Vibrates, Flips open 1984 Treo 2005 QWERTY kbd 1997 Wi-Fi cellular hybrid Number portability Texting 1983 Nokia Mp3 player 2004 1998 GPSE-911 BlackBerry Nokia Kyocera SmartPhone AMPS trial In Chicago 500 billion text msgs in 2004 Games 2003 1999 Patent 1975 2000 2002 Sat- Phone 1973 2001 Prototype Concept:1946 1966 109 Nokia phones GPRSdigital Color 2002: More mobile substhan wired, worldwide 250 billion text msgs in 2001 M I95cl Bluetooth

  49. Agenda • Trends and Projections • Adoption Curves (long term views) • Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future • Global Penetration • Infrastructure • Technologies • User Equipment • Computing & Storage • Software • Networks • Roadmaps • Digitization – Beyond 4G • Stages and Evolution • The 5G and 6G World • IP as an Integration Enabler • Explosion of Services • Questions & Answers

  50. Computing Storage Digitization – Computing & Storage 5 5 5 10 10 10 Grid Computing Autonomic Computing Blades Multicore Latent Semantic Indexing In-memory Databases 60%CGR 60%CGR 4 4 4 Quad Core 10 10 10 Duo Core Pentium 5 3 3 3 10 10 10 Pentium 4 Pentium 4 Areal Density (Mbits / in2) Pentium III Pentium III 2 10 Performance (on log scale) Pentium II Pentium II 25%CGR 25%CGR At constant cost! At constant cost! Today 10 Today Pentium Pentium Today I486 I486 1 I286/I386 I286/I386 40%CGR 40%CGR IBM 360/370 IBM 360/370 - - - 1 1 1 10 10 10 - - - 2 2 2 10 10 10 1990 1990 1980 1980 1990 1980 1970 1970 1970 2000 2000 2010 2010 2000 2010

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