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The Future of Wireless

The Future of Wireless. Dr. Hamdy Ellaithy Vodafone Egypt 6 th Annual Private Sector Cooperation Meeting In the Arab Region December 2007. The world goes broadband. UK Broadband Penetration. VDSL2 50Mbps. DSL performance sets user expectations. ADSL2+ 25Mbps. ?. HSDPA 7.2Mbps.

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The Future of Wireless

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  1. The Future of Wireless Dr. Hamdy Ellaithy Vodafone Egypt 6th Annual Private Sector Cooperation Meeting In the Arab Region December 2007

  2. The world goes broadband UK Broadband Penetration VDSL2 50Mbps DSL performance sets user expectations ADSL2+ 25Mbps ? HSDPA 7.2Mbps ADSL2 8Mbps ADSL 2Mbps ADSL 1Mbps HSDPA 3.6Mbps

  3. Camera TV Personal navigation Terminal capability is raising the stakes … the physical embodiment of Moore’s Law Mobile Internet + Increasing dependency on wireless broadband for a compelling user experience MP3 Full WWW capabilities now driving Web 2.0 innovation on the mobile platform Increasing multimedia functionality & services …but coupled closely with the PC activating device and enabling upgrades iPhone also driving awareness of Mobile Internet…

  4. Allocation by auction Auction income causes governments to “find” more spectrum, reducing shortage of supply Gradual move to lighter regulation – Spectrum “rights” may permit change of use Spectrum may be traded Spectrum is again on the agenda The Old World • Shortage of spectrum • Heavily regulated – usage defined by regulators • Allocation by “Beauty Contest” • Barrier to new entrants Spectrum Liberalisation A New World has emerged Licensed and Unlicensed Opportunities on horizon “3G extension band” at 2.5 - 2.69 GHz “Digital Dividend” at 470-860 MHz – Can we get coordination in Europe? If spectrum is divided between too many, it becomes useless!!

  5. Wireless broadband - contenders & timelines 2009 2010 2008 2006 2007 HSDPA 3.6 Mbps HSDPA 7.2 Mbps HSDPA 7.2 Mbps HSPA + ? HSPA HSUPA 5.7 Mbps HSUPA1.4Mbps Specification process Complete ~ Q4 07 LTE Test specifications & pre-commercial trials Available 2009/2010 R1.0 Wave1 available Q1 ’07 802.16e-2005 ratified Q4 ‘05 Mobile WiMAX R1.0 Wave2 available Q4 ’07 Mobile WiMAX R2.0 2009/2010? Specification Complete ~Q2 ’07 Rev C Performance requirements Define RAN architecture Joint proposal July ’06

  6. Radio performance comparison – spectral efficiency • Charts are a measure of spectral efficiency based on the aggregate site throughput (assuming three sectors per site) • Expressed as bits/sec/Hz/site • 10MHz overall system bandwidth in all cases • All three systems offer similar performance once WiMAX gets to “Wave 2” stage (Q1 08) • “Intel vision” will be driven as a performance target within the latest IEEE 802.16m standard – Vodafone will engage in this process

  7. Radio performance comparison – peak rates 45 Downlink peak 40 Uplink peak 35 30 25 Peak data rate Mbps 20 15 10 5 0 HSPA LTE Wave 1 "Rev C" Wave 2 10 MHz TDD, 3:1 DL:UL ratio 5+5 MHz FDD • Peak rate can be a misleading measure of system performance. In reality, users are unlikely to achieve these data rates across a meaningful area except if small cells are deployed

  8. How many users can be supported? 600 Number of Mobile office or www users per cell 500 400 • Profile of data usage – three examples considered: • Real time video streaming • Mobile office • Web browsing • Key assumptions • Typical www browsing model with >90% of users receiving page in less than 4 seconds. Mean page size approx 25kB. • Mobile office e-mails / file transfer generates 75MB in 8 hour working day = 21 kbps • Video streaming is variable bit rate, but averages 256kbps or 1 Mbps per stream. 5% outage rate. • Only downlink has been considered • All technologies using 10MHz spectrum (5+5 FDD, 10 TDD). WiMax has asymmetric ratio (3:1) in favour of downlink. 300 200 100 0 Wave 1 HSPA LTE Wave 2 HSPA+ 60 Number of streaming video users (@ 256 kbps) per cell 50 40 30 20 10 0 Video (256kbps) Video (1Mbps) Mobile Office (75 MB/8 hrs) or browsing 14 HSPA (Rx div, Eq) <1 120 150 HSPA+ (MIMO) 17 <1 36 310 LTE 1? 38 330 Mobile WiMax Wave 1 <1 Mobile WiMax Wave 2 56 1-2? 490

  9. 2000 Number of Mobile office or www users per cell 60MHz N=3 1600 1200 800 30MHz N=3 400 10MHz N=1 0 Wave 2 Wave 2 Wave 2 250 Number of streaming video users (@ 256 kbps) per cell 60MHz N=3 200 150 100 30MHz N=3 50 10MHz 0 But more spectrum equals more users –Sprint has upwards of 60MHz in key markets • Going from N=1 to N=3 significantly reduces interference. This boosts sector throughput (x2 approx.) and improves availability peak data rates. Coverage plots illustrate peak downlink data rate with N=1 and N=3 frequency reuse

  10. Other approaches to wireless broadband: Mesh WiFi A “service for the community” – plus vertical applications for municipals • >300 municipal broadband networks are planned or deployed in the U.S. metro areas using mesh WiFi. Now starting to appear in Europe. • Inexpensive access points (using 802.11) wirelessly linked using licence exempt spectrum. • The technology provider space is crowded but Tropos claim to own 80% market share… • No device subsidy, plus subsidised “base sites” / backhaul can drive down the overall cost. • The technology works to some extent but the business case has yet to be proven Vodafone R&D technology trials Explored WLAN based multi-hop relay systems, but with mixed success. Coverage remains a challenge, and rapid re-routing destroys performance Other trials showed good throughput but very slow routing Can we get both together?

  11. Computers (with Communication) Sell goods, subsidise services Broadband bit pipes Best effort Internet architecture TDD radio technologies LTE Two routes to the wireless future IT Community Telecom Community IEEE 802.16 • (Smart) Phones • Sell services, subsidise goods • Value added services • Reliable and secure • Telecoms architecture / interworking • FDD radio technologies

  12. Industry Balance – China Will Play a Big Role Long Term Evolution + Clear choice in Europe ? Needs US support ? Diverse spectrum choices - No commercial orders likely for some time + Commercial order in US + Clear view on spectrum ? Traction in emerging markets - Tough play in Europe

  13. Yesterday Vertical Networks (single service) Today Horizontal Network (multi-services) Services Services Content Content Services Environment Fixed Data Net WLAN Fixed Telephony Mobile Intelligent Edge Media Gateways IP Multi-Services network Access Access Access Transport, Switching & Access Networks Network ‘horizontalisation’

  14. Deployment Challenge

  15. The coverage challenge – what kind of site? • Vodafone study aiming at comprehensive dense urban coverage with 1MB/s uplink estimated required site density: • 10 Macro /km2 – impractical? • 150 lamppost /km2 • Lamppost network could use simpler, smaller equipment and less spectrum BUT • Big challenge to deliver backhaul Macro Lamppost The backhaul challenge • Backhaul options – DSL? Fibre? Microwave Mesh? • Need a flexible, resilient, high capacity solution allowing rapid deployment The biggest challenge in deploying broadband networks will be delivering cost-effective backhaul

  16. Standard 3 G UE 3 G Access The DSL Vodafone Backhaul Network Provision DSL VAP Modem 3G HSPA / WiFi Access DSL to Customers Premises MetroZone Femtocells “Base stations” deployed in the home Subscribers deploy their own coverage -network deployment better tailored to subscriber demand. Very low power (~20mW initially) Residential takes takes - -

  17. Take-aways

  18. New breeds of base stations – femto cells, microcells, relaying nodes Ever more personal and tactile terminals New technology – OFDMA instead of CDMA Multiplicity of access technologies New frequency bands – 2.6 GHZ and UHF Greater responsibility for use of spectrum Convergence of telecommunications and the Internet New players from the Internet community with lessons to learn Vodafone playing a greater role in determining which technologies will dominate China Points Raised

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